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Role of human caused climate change
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CountPercentLast update: 25 February 2021
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More severe or more likely to occurM28470%
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Decrease, less severe or less likely to occurL379%
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No discernible human influenceN4110%
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Insufficient data/inconclusiveI4311%
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No. of events405
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No. of papers357
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Name
Event year/Trend
WMO regionLocationEvent typeClassificationSummary statementCitationPublication yearSourceLink
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European summer heatwave, 20032003Europe
Continental Europe
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%)9 that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude."
Stott, P. et al., 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614
2004Naturehttps://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7017/full/nature03089.html
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Global temperature extremes, since 1950TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Comparing these observations with climate model simulations in an optimal detection analysis shows a significant human influence on patterns of change in extremely warm nights."
Christidis, N. et al., 2005: Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century, GRL, 32 (20), DOI:10.1029/2005GL023885
2005Geophysical Research Lettershttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005GL023885
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Record warm autumn in Europe, 20062006Europe
North side of the Alps to southern Norway
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Global warming has made a warm autumn like the one observed in 2006 much more likely by shifting the temperature distribution to higher values."
Van Oldenborgh, G-J. et al., 2007: How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe? Climate of the Past, 3, 659-668
2007Climate of the Pasthttp://www.clim-past.net/3/659/2007/cp-3-659-2007.html
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Increasing frequency of "very warm" northern hemisphere summers, 1860–2009
Trend
Northern Hemisphere
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We detect the dominant influence of anthropogenic factors on observed warming in almost every region, which has led to a rapidly increasing risk of hot summers."
Jones, G. et al., 2007: Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm Northern Hemisphere summers, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02109, DOI:10.1029/2007JD008914
2007Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphereshttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JD008914
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Moscow summer heatwave, 20102010AsiaMoscowHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"For July temperature in Moscow, we estimate...an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without climate warming."
Rahmstorf, S. & Coumou, D. 2011: Increase of extreme events in a warming world. PNAS, 108 (44), 17905.
2011Proceedings of the National Academy of Scienceshttp://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/17905.abstract
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Global warm nights, 1950-2003TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A large part of the observed global‐scale trend in TN90 results from the trend in mean temperature, which has been attributed largely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increase. This suggests that the detected global‐scale trends in the number of warm nights are at least partly anthropogenic."
Morak, S. et al., 2011: Detectable regional changes in the number of warm nights. GRL, 38 (17)
2011Geophysical Research Lettershttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL048531
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Global "extremely warm daytime temperatures", 1950-99
TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic forcings alter the regional distributions, indicating that extremely warm days have become hotter."
Christidis, N. et al., 2011: The Role of Human Activity in the Recent Warming of Extremely Warm Daytime Temperatures. J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1
2011Journal of Climatehttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1
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Africa "anomalously warm" seasonal temperatures, 1961-2008
TrendAfricaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In the June‐August and September‐November seasons, many of the sub‐continental regions of Africa and Asia show robust attributable increase in the frequencies of anomalously warm seasonal temperatures."
Stott, P. et al., 2011: Single‐step attribution of increasing frequencies of very warm regional temperatures to human influence. Atmos. Sci. Lett, 12 (2), 220-227, DOI:10.1002/asl.315
2011Atmospheric Science Lettershttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.315
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Asia "anomalously warm" seasonal temperatures, 1961-2008
TrendAsiaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In the June‐August and September‐November seasons, many of the sub‐continental regions of Africa and Asia show robust attributable increase in the frequencies of anomalously warm seasonal temperatures."
Stott, P. et al., 2011: Single‐step attribution of increasing frequencies of very warm regional temperatures to human influence. Atmos. Sci. Lett, 12 (2), 220-227, DOI:10.1002/asl.315
2011Atmospheric Science Lettershttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.315
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Global daily temperature extremes, 1961-2000TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Therefore, it is concluded that the influence of anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on extreme temperatures that have impacts on human society and natural systems at global and regional scales."
Zwiers, F. et al., 2011: Anthropogenic Influence on Long Return Period Daily Temperature Extremes at Regional Scales, J. Climate, 10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1
2011Journal of Climatehttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1
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Russia summer heatwave, 20102010AsiaRussiaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Here we use the results from a large ensemble simulation experiment with an atmospheric general circulation model to show that…the same event can be both mostly internally‐generated in terms of magnitude and mostly externally‐driven in terms of occurrence‐probability."
Otto, F. et al., 2012: Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L04702
2012Geophysical Research Lettershttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL050422/abstract
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England warm November of 20112011EuropeCentral EnglandHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The warm November of 2011…corresponds to a return period of 20 years in the 2000s, but a return period of 1250 years in the 1960s, an approximately 62 times increase in occurrence."
Massey, N. et al., 2012: Have the odds of warm November temperatures and of cold December temperatures in central England changed? [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), 1057-1060
2012Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1
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US July heat, 20122012
North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Central & eastern United States
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Our analyses of the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble suggest that the likelihood of extreme July temperature anomalies is greater in the current forcing than in the preindustrial forcing."
Diffenbaugh, N. & Scherer, M. 2013: Likelihood of july 2012 U.S. temperatures in preindustrial and current forcing regimes [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S6-S9.
2013Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1
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Spring "warm anomaly" in eastern US, 20122012
North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Eastern United States
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The anthropogenic contribution to the extreme seasonal (MAM) warmth over the eastern United States can be estimated as about 35%, or in terms of risk, anthropogenic forcing leads to a factor of 12 increase in the risk of such an event according to our calculations."
Knutson, T et al., 2013: The extreme March–May 2012 warm anomaly over the eastern United States: global context and multimodel trend analysis [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S13-S17
2013Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1
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Australia record summer temperatures, 20132013South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"It was very likely (>90% confidence) there was at least a 2.5 times increase in the odds of extreme heat due to human influences using simulations to 2005, and a fivefold increase in this risk using simulations for 2006–2020."
Lewis et al., 2013: Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (14), 3705-3709
2013Geophysical Research Lettershttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50673/abstract
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Global warm/extreme events, 2011-122011-12GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In more than half of the 10 cases considered here anthropogenic influence results in warm events being 3 times more likely and extreme events 5 times more likely during September 2011–August 2012."
Christidis, N. & Stott, P., 2013: Change in the Odds of Warm Years and Seasons Due to Anthropogenic Influence on the Climate. J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00563.1
2013Journal of Climatehttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00563.1
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Global warm/cold days/nights from 1951-2000TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The anthropogenic signal is detected in global and northern continental means of all four indices, albeit less robustly for TXx, which is consistent with previous findings."
Min, S-K. et al., 2013: Multimodel Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature Changes. J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1
2013Journal of Climatehttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1
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Australia & tropical Pacific warm anomalies, 2013
2013South West Pacific
Australia & far west Pacific
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"CMIP5 simulations suggest that the extremely warm year observed over Australia and the far western Pacific during 2013 was largely attributable to human forcing of the climate system."
Knutson, T. et al., 2014: Multimodel assessment of extreme annual-mean warm anomalies during 2013 over regions of australia and the western tropical pacific [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S34-S37.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Australia record temperatures, 20132013South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change has caused a very large increase in the likelihood of extreme events such as the record Australia-wide average temperatures in September, spring, and the 2013 calendar year."
Lewis, L & Karoly, D., 2014: The role of anthropogenic forcing in the record 2013 Australia-wide annual and spring temperatures [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S31-S34.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Australia hot summer, 2012-132012-13South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Human activity has increased the risk of experiencing the hot Australian summer of 2012/13, as measured by simulated heat wave frequency and intensity, by two- and three-fold, respectively."
Perkins, S. et al., 2014: Increased simulated risk of the hot Australian summer of 2012/13 due to anthropogenic activity as measured by heat wave frequency and intensity [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S34-S37.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Australia record hot September, 20132013South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Record high September maximum temperatures over Australia arose from a combination of a strongly anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern, background warming, and dry and warm antecedent land-surface conditions."
Arblaster, J et al., 2014: Understanding Australia’s hottest September on record [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S37-S41.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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South Korea summer heatwave, 20132013AsiaSouth Korea HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A comparison of observations and multiple global climate model simulations indicates that extreme hot summer temperatures in Korea have become 10 times more likely due to human influence."
Min, S-K. et al., 2014: Assessing human contribution to the summer 2013 Korean heat wave [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S48-S51.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Japan heatwave, 20132013AsiaJapanHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change played a significant role in increasing the probability of events such as the heat wave in Japan in 2013."
Imada, Y. et al., 2014: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Japanese heat waves of 2013 [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S49-S52.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Central eastern China hot summer, 20132013Asia
China 24°–33°N, 102.5°–122.5°E
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Comparison based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest a discernible impact of anthropogenic forcing, with internal variability also being important."
Zhou, T. et al., 2014: Understanding a hot summer in central eastern China: summer 2013 in context of multimodel trend analysis [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S54-S57.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Western Europe hot & dry summer, 20132013EuropeWestern EuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic forcing played a substantial part in western Europe’s hot, dry summer in 2013. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were likely a factor in the large contrast with summer 2012."
Dong, B. et al., 2014: The 2013 hot, dry, summer in western Europe [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S62-S66.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Eastern Australia record heat2013South West Pacific
Eastern inland Australia
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The record heat of 2013 across inland eastern Australia was caused by a combination of anthropogenic warming and extreme drought."
King, A. et al., 2014: Climate change turns Australia's 2013 big dry into a year of record-breaking heat [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S41-S45.
2014Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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Eastern China record hot summer, 20132013AsiaEastern ChinaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s."
Sun et al., 2014. Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1082-1085
2014Nature Climate Changehttps://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2410
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Southwestern US summer heatwave, 20132013
North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Southwestern USHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"It was suggested that both the anthropogenic warming and an atmospheric circulation regime related to the natural variability of SST and SIC made the heat wave event more likely."
Shiogama et al., 2014. Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States JSTage:SOLA, 10,. 122-126
2014Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere)https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/10/0/10_2014-025/_article
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Northern hemisphere hot summers, 1949–2011Trend
Northern Hemisphere
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In addition, direct influence of anthropogenic forcing also contributes to increasing the frequency since the late 20th century."
Kamae, Y. et al., 2014: Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century. GRL, 41 (14), 5192-5199
2014Geophysical Research Lettershttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL061062
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Europe warmest year, 20142014EuropeEuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The KNMI and Melbourne teams found that the odds of average temperatures across Europe reaching this year’s record-setting levels were increased by at least 35 to 80 times due to human influence on our climate. The team at the University of Oxford found that…global warming had increased the odds of a year as hot as the one just experienced in most of continental Europe by at least a factor of 10."
World Weather Attribution. 2014: 2014 likely to be the warmest year ever recorded
2014World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-2014/
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Global temperature extremes, 1960-2010TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We demonstrate that the probability distribution of observed local trends across the globe for the period 1960–2010 is clearly different to what would be expected from internal variability. We detect a distinct intensification of heavy precipitation events and hot extremes."
Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. 2014: Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 547-554, doi:10.1002/2013GL058499
2014Geophysical Research Lettershttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL058499
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Argentina heatwave, December 20132013South AmericaArgentinaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The Argentinian heat wave of December 2013 was likely caused in part by anthropogenic forcings. These forcings have increased the risk of such an event occurring by a factor of five."
Hannart, A. et al., 2015: Causal Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on the Argentinian Heat Wave of December 2013 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S41-S45.
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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Record warmth over Europe, 20142014EuropeEuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"According to CMIP5 models, the risk of record annual mean warmth in European, northeast Pacific, and northwest Atlantic regions—as occurred in 2014—has been greatly increased by anthropogenic climate change."
Kam, J. et al., 2015: Record Annual Mean Warmth Over Europe, the Northeast Pacific, and the Northwest Atlantic During 2014: Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S61-S65.
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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South Korea record hot spring, 20142014AsiaSouth Korea HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A comparison of observations and multiple global climate model simulations indicates that extreme hot summer temperatures in Korea have become 10 times more likely due to human influence."
Min, S. et al., 2015: Anthropogenic Influence on the 2014 Record-Hot Spring in Korea [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S95-S99.
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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Northern China hot spring, 20142014Asia
Northern China 30°–55°N, 105°–135°E
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic forcing may have contributed to an 11-fold increase in the chance of the 2014 hot spring in northern China"
Song, L. et al., 2015: Role of Anthropogenic Forcing in 2014 Hot Spring in Northern China [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S111-S114
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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Brisbane heat event, November 20142014South West PacificBrisbaneHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Climate model simulations for 2014 indicate anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of hot and very hot November days in Brisbane by at least 25% and 44% respectively."
King, A. et al., 2015: Increased Likelihood of Brisbane, Australia, G20 Heat Event Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S141-144
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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Adelaide heatwave, January 20142014South West PacificAdelaideHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of prolonged heat waves like that experienced in Adelaide in January 2014 by at least 16%."
Black, M. et al., 2015: The Contribution of Anthropogenic Forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, Heat Waves of January 2014 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S145-S148.
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
48
Australia high temperatures, spring 20142014South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The record warm Australian spring of 2014 would likely not have occurred without increases in CO2 over the last 50 years working in concert with an upper-level wave train."
Hope, P. et al., 2015: Contributors to the Record High Temperatures Across Australia in Late Spring 2014 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S149-S153.
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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Australia heatwave, May 20142014South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic activity has increased the risk of Australian heatwaves during late autumn similar to the 2014 event by up to 23-fold, compared to climate conditions under no anthropogenic influence."
Perkins, S. & Gibson, P., 2015: Increased Risk of the 2014 Australian May Heatwave Due to Anthropogenic Activity [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S154-S157.
2015Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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Record high Central England temperature, 20142014EuropeCentral EnglandHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central England by at least 13-fold."
King et al., (2015) Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (5), 54002
2015Environmental Research Lettershttp://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002
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"Exceptionally warm" Texas summer, 20112011
North America, Central America & the Caribbean
TexasHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"The likelihood of a given unusually high summer temperature being exceeded was simulated to be about 10 times greater due to anthropogenic emissions."
Rupp et al., (2015) Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (7), 2392–2400
2015Geophysical Research Lettershttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062683/abstract
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Global heat extremes, 1901–2005TrendGlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"About 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times...About 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming."
Fischer & Knutti (2015) Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes. Nature Climate Change, 5, 560-564
2015Nature Climate Changehttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n6/full/nclimate2617.html
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Record global temperature, 20152015GlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Of that 1.05C temperature departure from pre-industrial [recorded in 2015], roughly 1.0C is due to the anthropogenic forcing, about 0.05C (0.09F) to 0.1C (0.18F) is due to El Niño and about 0.02C (0.04F) is due to higher solar activity. "
World Weather Attribution. 2015. 2015 – a record breaking hot year
2015World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/record-hot-year-2015/
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Europe heatwave, July 2015 (Netherlands)2015EuropeDe BiltHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Climate change has made the observed heat wave almost 2 times more likely to occur. This means that what would have been a 1-in-7 year event in the world without climate change is now a 1-in-4 year event."
World Weather Attribution. 2015. European heatwave, July 2015
2015World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-wave-july-2015/
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Europe heatwave, July 2015 (Spain)2015Europe
Madrid (Barajas station at Madrid Airport)
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Climate change has made the observed heat wave 5 times more likely to occur. In other words, what was once a 1-in-100 year event in the world without climate change, is now a 1-in-20 year event."
World Weather Attribution. 2015. European heatwave, July 2015
2015World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-wave-july-2015/
56
Europe heatwave, July 2015 (Germany)2015EuropeMannheimHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Climate change made the observed heat wave almost 4 times more likely to occur. Or, what was a 1-in-130 year event in a world without climate change is now a 1-in-36 year event."
World Weather Attribution. 2015. European heatwave, July 2015
2015World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-wave-july-2015/
57
Europe heatwave, July 2015 (France)2015EuropeBeauvais-TilleHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Climate change has made the observed heat wave 35% more likely to occur. Or, what is a 1-in-2.6 year event now would have been a 1-in-3.5 year event in the world without climate change."
World Weather Attribution. 2015. European heatwave, July 2015
2015World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-wave-july-2015/
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Europe heatwave, July 2015 (Switzerland)2015EuropeZürichHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Climate change has made the observed heat wave about 3 times more likely to occur. What would have been a 1-in-40 year event in a world without climate change is now a 1-in-15 year event."
World Weather Attribution. 2015. European heatwave, July 2015
2015World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-wave-july-2015/
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Record global warmth, 20152015Global
Global temperature
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame.
Kam, J. et al., 2016: Multimodel Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Record Global and Regional Warmth During 2015 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S4-S8, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0138.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2_gc_heat.pdf
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Record warmth in India, 20152015Asia
Southern India & Sri Lanka
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame."
Kam, J. et al., 2016: Multimodel Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Record Global and Regional Warmth During 2015 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S4-S8, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0138.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2_gc_heat.pdf
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Central Europe heatwaves, 20152015Europe
Central Europe, averaged over 4 sites: 52°06’N, 5°11’E; 50°55.5’N, 11°35’E; 53°52’N, 27°32’E; 48°14’N, 16°21’E
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Station-based observations and bias-corrected model simulations show that the frequency of short-term heat waves in central Europe has increased, albeit quantitative estimates of risk ratios differ considerably between methods."
Sippel, S. et al. 2016: The Role of Anthropogenic Warming in 2015 Central European Heat Waves [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S51-S56, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0150.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/11_central_europe_heat.pdf
62
Europe heatwave, 20152015Europe
Central Europe 45°–55°N, 0°–35°E
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A heat wave swept across central Europe in summer 2015. Model experiments suggest that anthropogenic forcings were a major factor in setting the conditions for the development of the 2015 heat wave."
Dong. B. et al., 2016: The 2015 European Heat Wave [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S57-S62, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/12_europe_heat.pdf
63
Egypt heatwave, 20152015AfricaEgyptHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"A combined modeling and observational assessment of the 2015 heat wave in Egypt found that human discomfort increased due to anthropogenic climate change."
Mitchell, D., 2016: Human Influences on Heat-Related Health Indicators During the 2015 Egyptian Heat Wave [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S70-S74, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0132.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/14_egypt_heat.pdf
64
Deadly heat & humidity in India & Pakistan, summer 2015
2015AsiaIndia & PakistanHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We find that the deadly heat waves in India and Pakistan in 2015 were exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. Although the impacts of both events were severe, the events themselves were not connected to each other."
Wehner, M. et al., 2016: The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity in India and Pakistan in Summer 2015 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S81-S86, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0145.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/16_india_pakistain.pdf
65
Northwest China record heat, July 20152015Asia
N. W China, Xinjiang Autonomous Region
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The record-breaking heat over northwest China in July 2015 was linked directly to atmospheric general circulation indices and anthropogenic forcing. The latter increased the risk of extreme heat by three-fold."
Miao, C. et al., 2016: Record-Breaking Heat in Northwest China in July 2015: Analysis of the Severity and Underlying Causes [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S97-S101, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0142.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/19_nw_china.pdf
66
Western China extreme high temperatures, 20152015Asia
W. China, West of 105°E
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Human influence has very likely increased the probability of occurrence of the 2015 western China extreme summer temperature events by at least 3-fold and 42-fold for the highest daily maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively.
Sun, Y. et al., 2016: Human Influence on the 2015 Extreme High Temperature Events in Western China [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S102-S106, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0158.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/20_w_china_heat.pdf
67
Japan heatwave, August 20152015AsiaJapanHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The persistent Japanese heat wave that occurred in early August 2015 was mainly attributed to intraseasonal disturbances including tropical cyclones. Anthropogenic warming contributed to an increase in the probability of occurrence.
Takahashi, C. et al., 2016: A Persistent Japanese Heat Wave in Early August 2015: Roles of Natural Variability and Human-Induced Warming [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S107-S112, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0157.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/21_japan_heat.pdf
68
Indonesia heat, 20152015South West Pacific
Indonesia 0°–11°S, 95°–141°E
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"El Niño and human-induced climate change have substantially increased the likelihood of rainfall deficits and high temperatures, respectively, in Indonesia such as those experienced in the drought conditions of July–October 2015."
King, A. et al., 2016: Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Indonesian Heat and Drought [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S113-S117, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0164.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/22_indonesia_heat.pdf
69
Southern Australia's record warm October, 20152015South West PacificS. AustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change was found to have a substantial influence on southern Australia’s extreme heat in October 2015. The relative influence of El Niño conditions was less clear."
Black, M. & Karoly, D., 2016: Southern Australia’s Warmest October on Record: The Role of ENSO and Climate Change [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S118-S121, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0124.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/23_australian_s_heat.pdf
70
Australia record heat, October 20152015South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Using a seasonal forecasting framework for attribution, we find that half of the record heat anomaly across Australia in October 2015 can be attributed to increasing CO2, with much of the rest due to internal atmospheric variability."
Hope, P. et al., 2016: What Caused the Record-Breaking Heat Across Australia in October 2015? [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S122-S126, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0142.1.
2016Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/24_australian_oct_ht.pdf
71
Europe record hot temperatures, 20142014EuropeEuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The year 2014 broke the record for the warmest yearly average temperature in Europe...Each method shows a very strong anthropogenic influence on the event over Europe."
Uhe et al., 2016: Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (16), 8685–8693,
2016Geophysical Research Lettershttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069568/abstract
72
Global temperatures and rainfall extremes, 1951-2005
TrendGlobal
Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, and the Northern Hemisphere
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A clear anthropogenic signal is found in the trends in the maximum and minimum temperature components for all regions."
Dittus, A. & Karoly, D., 2017: A Multiregion Model Evaluation and Attribution Study of Historical Changes in the Area Affected by Temperature and Precipitation Extremes. J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0164.1
2016Journal of Climatehttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0164.1
73
European temperature extremes, 1961-2010TrendEuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The models indicate that anthropogenic forcings have influenced almost all indices in recent decades and led to more prominent changes in the frequency of extremes."
Christidis, N. & Stott, P., 2017: Attribution analyses of temperature extremes using a set of 16 indices. Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 24-35
2016Weather and Climate Extremeshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300640
74
Global summertime heat stress, 1973-2012TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed."
Knutson, T. & PLoshay, J., 2016: Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index. Climatic Change, 138 (1–2), 25–39
2016Climatic Changehttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1708-z
75
Global "hot" events, post-1900TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record‐breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record‐breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence."
King, A. et al., 2016: Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. GRL, 43 (7), 3438-3443 DOI:10.1002/2015GL067448
2016Geophysical Research Lettershttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL067448
76
Global hot/cold days/nights, 1951-2010TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Results confirm previous HadEX/CMIP3-based results in which anthropogenic (ANT) signals are robustly detected in the increase in global mean and northern continental regional means of the four indices of extreme temperatures."
Kim, Y-H. et al., 2016: Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010. Clim. Dyn., 46 (5–6), 1769–1782
2016Climate Dynamicshttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2674-2
77
Paris summer heatwave deaths, 20032003EuropeLondonHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris."
Mitchell, d. et al., 2016: Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change, Environ. Res. Lett. 11 074006
2016Environmental Research Lettershttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006
78
London summer heatwave deaths, 20032003EuropeParisHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris."
Mitchell, d. et al., 2016: Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change, Environ. Res. Lett. 11 074006
2016Environmental Research Lettershttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006
79
North Pole "unusually high" temperatures, winter 2016
2016ArcticNorth PoleHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The model analyses show that the event would also have been extremely unlikely in a world without anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, attributing the cause of the change to human influences."
van Oldenborgh, G. J. et al. 2016: Unusually high temperatures at the North Pole, winter 2016, World Weather Attribution
2016World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/north-pole-nov-dec-2016/
80
Global extreme events, 1931-2016TrendGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area."
Diffenbaugh, N. et al., 2017: Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. PNAS, 114 (19), 4881–4886
2017Proceedings of the National Academy of Scienceshttp://www.pnas.org/content/114/19/4881.abstract
81
Southern Europe "unusually hot & dry" summer, 2012
2012EuropeSouthern EuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change."
Wilcox, L. et al., 2017: Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change, Clim. Dyn. (50) 3537 doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7
2017Climate Dynamicshttps://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3822-7#citeas
82
Global record temperature streak, 2014-162014-16GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We find that this sequence of record‐breaking temperatures had a negligible (<0.03%) likelihood of occurrence in the absence of anthropogenic warming."
Mann, M. et al., 2017: Record temperature streak bears anthropogenic fingerprint. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44 (15), 7936-7944, DOI:10.1002/2017GL074056
2017Geophysical Research Lettershttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL074056
83
Global temperature record, 20162016GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
The findings indicate a "29‐fold increase in the likelihood of setting a record for a hot year in global temperatures in 2016 due to anthropogenic forcings".
King, A., 2017: Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences, Earth's Future, 5 (11) 1156-1168, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000611
2017Earth's Futurehttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000611
84
Central England temperature record, 20142014EuropeCentral EnglandHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Human‐induced climate change increased the chance of setting a new heat record in the CET [Central England Temperature] in 2014 by at least a factor 35."
King, A., 2017: Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences, Earth's Future, 5 (11) 1156-1168, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000611
2017Earth's Futurehttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000611
85
New South Wales hottest summer, 20172017South West Pacific
New South Wales, Southeastern Australia
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Average summer temperatures like those seen [in New South Wales] during 2016-2017 are now at least 50 times more likely in the current climate than in the past, before global warming began."
King, A. et al. 2017: Extreme heat in southeast Australia, February 2017, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-australia-february-2017/
86
Eastern US "exceedingly warm" Feburary, 20172017
North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Contiguous USHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Overall, we find that the chances of seeing a February as warm as the one experienced across the Lower 48 has increased more than threefold because of human-caused climate change."
van Oldenborgh, G. J. 2017. Warm Februaries becoming much more common in the US, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/u-s-heat-february-2017/
87
Europe heatwave, June 2017 (Belgium)2017EuropeBelgiumHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".
Otto, F. et al. 2017: Record June temperatures in western Europe, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/
88
Europe heatwave, June 2017 (France)2017EuropeFranceHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".
Otto, F. et al. 2017: Record June temperatures in western Europe, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/
89
Europe heatwave, June 2017 (Netherlands)2017Europe
Netherlands (Central Netherlands Temperature region)
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".
Otto, F. et al. 2017: Record June temperatures in western Europe, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/
90
Europe heatwave, June 2017 (Portugal)2017EuropePortugalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".
Otto, F. et al. 2017: Record June temperatures in western Europe, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/
91
Europe heatwave, June 2017 (Spain)2017EuropeSpainHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".
Otto, F. et al. 2017: Record June temperatures in western Europe, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/
92
Europe heatwave, June 2017 (Switzerland)2017EuropeSwitzerlandHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".
Otto, F. et al. 2017: Record June temperatures in western Europe, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/
93
Europe heatwave, June 2017 (UK)2017Europe
UK (Central England Temperature region)
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".
Otto, F. et al. 2017: Record June temperatures in western Europe, World Weather Attribution
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/
94
Euro-Mediterannean heat, summer 20172017Europe
Euro-Mediterranean region
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The team found that climate change increased the chances of seeing a summer as hot as 2017 by at least a factor of 10 and a heat wave like Lucifer by at least a factor of four since 1900."
World Weather Attribution. 2017: Euro-Mediterranean heat, summer 2017
2017World Weather Attribution (rapid study)
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/euro-mediterranean-heat-summer-2017/
95
Southern Europe summer heatwave, 20172017Europe
Euro-Mediterranean, 8°–24°E, 36°–48°N
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Across the Euro-Mediterranean the likelihood of a heat wave at least as hot as summer 2017 is now on the order of 10%. Anthropogenic climate change has increased the odds at least threefold since 1950."
Kew, S. et al., 2018: The Exceptional Summer Heat Wave in Southern Europe 2017 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0127.12018Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch11_EEEof2017_Kew.pdf
96
South Korea earliest summer onset, 20172017AsiaSouth KoreaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Large-ensemble RCM and GCM simulations suggest a significant anthropogenic contribution to the observed warmest May and earliest summer onset in South Korea, increasing the risk of its occurrence by 2–3 times."
Min, S-K. et al., 2018: Anthropogenic Contribution to the 2017 Earliest Summer Onset in South Korea [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0096.1
2018Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch15_EEEof2017_Min.pdf
97
Northeast China hot & dry spring/summer, 20172017Asia
Northeast China (80°–120°E and 40°–70°N)
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Anthropogenic climate change has increased the risk of 2017 northeast China persistent spring–summer hot and dry extremes by 5%–55% and 37%–113% respectively."
Wang, S. et al., 2018: Attribution of the Persistent Spring–Summer Hot and Dry Extremes over Northeast China in 2017 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0120.1
2018Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch17_EEEof2017_Yuan.pdf
98
Central eastern China heatwave, July 20172017Asia
Central eastern China
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Heat waves in central eastern China like the record-breaking July 2017 event were rare in natural worlds but have now become approximately 1-in-5-yr events due to anthropogenic forcings."
Chen, Y. et al., 2018: Anthropogenic Warming Has Substantially Increased the Likelihood of July 2017–like Heat Waves over Central Eastern China [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0087.1
2018Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch18_EEEof2017_Chen.pdf
99
Yangtze river delta summer heatwave, 20172017Asia
Yangtze river basin
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur"The occurrence probability of the record-breaking Yangtze River Delta heatwave in summer 2017 might be attributed to global warming (23%), the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high (32%), and the urban heat island effect (58%)."
Zhou, C. et al. 2018: Attribution of a Record-Breaking Heatwave Event in Summer 2017 over the Yangtze River Delta [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0134.1
2018Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyhttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch19_EEEof2017_KWang.pdf
100
Global extremely hot days, early 21st centuryTrendGlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We find that most regions experience increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot three day periods, but anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes locally can decrease these measures of heat waves in some models."
Wehner, M. et al., 2018: Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble. Weather and Climate Extremes, 20, 1-8, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.001
2018Weather and Climate Extremes
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094717301159?via%3Dihub