ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAAB
1
T2D3
2m, 6m, 18m, 36m, 72, 144m
2
YC10% WoW
3
Rule of 40
EBITDA + YoY > 40%
4
Magic number
Marketing + Sales = Growth
5
GitLab rule?
Gliding towards rule of 40
6
Efficiency10% G&A
7
Steady state
0% growth, 40% EBITDA, 80% margin, 20% M&S, 10% G&A, 10% R&D
yearcalculatedT2D3Off by
8
Rule of large numbers
15% absolute decrease in growth rate at 100m
12.124.80%
9
1b rule
If you pass 100m ARR with 60% growth rate you have a 50% chance of making it to 1b
26.669.66%
10
Growth rule
Monthly growth rate is ?/m ARR, Grows too fast in the beginning, OK halfway, too fast in the end.
MoM growth rate should be equal to 6% + ( 14% / last month ARR in $m)
315.618-13.33%
11
https://twitter.com/sytses/status/1209505508601843713
433.836-6.24%
12
MoM constant6.00%570.372-2.39%
13
Determine growth rate based on revenue
MoM base14.00%6143.8144-0.15%
14
YearARR end of yearYoYYearARR end of yearYoYMonthYearm ARR end of monthMoM to nextAprox. WoWYoYShould bem ARROff by
15
1212.010.10.0140000006.00%35000001.50%
16
26200.00%26.0200.00%20.20.1106.00%26.50%583889.08%
17
318200.00%316.8180.00%30.30.354.54%13.64%18461.57%
18
436100.00%443.7160.00%40.30.437.41%9.35%4431.66%
19
572100.00%5104.8140.00%50.40.628.86%7.21%1995.96%
20
6144100.00%6230.6120.00%60.50.823.74%5.93%1188.56%
21
7-100.00%7461.3100.00%70.61.020.34%5.08%822.06%
22
8#DIV/0!8830.380.00%80.71.217.91%4.48%622.37%
23
9#DIV/0!91328.460.00%90.81.416.10%4.03%500.00%
24
10#DIV/0!101859.840.00%100.81.614.70%3.68%418.64%
25
11#DIV/0!112231.820.00%110.91.813.59%3.40%361.25%
26
12#DIV/0!122231.80.00%121.02.112.68%3.17%318.92%2104.80%
27
13#DIV/0!131785.4-20.00%131.12.411.93%2.98%286.59%
28
14#DIV/0!141071.2-40.00%141.22.611.30%2.82%261.21%
29
15#DIV/0!15428.5-60.00%151.32.910.76%2.69%240.82%
30
16#DIV/0!161.33.310.30%2.57%224.14%
31
17#DIV/0!171.43.69.90%2.47%210.27%
32
18181.53.99.54%2.39%198.60%
33
191.64.39.24%2.31%188.65%
34
201.74.78.96%2.24%180.09%
35
211.85.18.72%2.18%172.67%
36
221.85.68.50%2.13%166.18%
37
231.96.18.30%2.08%160.47%
38
242.06.68.13%2.03%155.42%6109.66%
39
252.17.17.97%1.99%150.92%
40
262.27.77.82%1.96%146.90%
41
272.38.37.69%1.92%143.29%
42
282.38.97.57%1.89%140.04%
43
292.49.67.46%1.86%137.10%
44
302.510.37.36%1.84%134.43%
45
312.611.17.26%1.82%132.00%
46
322.711.97.18%1.79%129.79%
47
332.812.77.10%1.78%127.76%
48
342.813.67.03%1.76%125.91%
49
352.914.66.96%1.74%124.21%
50
363.015.66.90%1.72%122.64%1886.67%
51
373.116.76.84%1.71%121.20%
52
383.217.86.79%1.70%119.87%
53
393.319.06.74%1.68%118.64%
54
403.320.36.69%1.67%117.50%
55
413.421.76.65%1.66%116.44%
56
423.523.16.61%1.65%115.46%
57
433.624.66.57%1.64%114.55%
58
443.726.36.53%1.63%113.71%
59
453.828.06.50%1.63%112.92%
60
463.829.86.47%1.62%112.19%
61
473.931.76.44%1.61%111.51%
62
484.033.86.41%1.60%110.87%3693.76%
63
494.135.96.39%1.60%110.28%
64
504.238.26.37%1.59%109.73%
65
514.340.66.34%1.59%109.21%
66
524.343.26.32%1.58%108.72%
67
534.446.06.30%1.58%108.27%
68
544.548.96.29%1.57%107.85%
69
554.651.96.27%1.57%107.45%
70
564.755.26.25%1.56%107.08%
71
574.858.66.24%1.56%106.73%
72
584.862.36.22%1.56%106.40%
73
594.966.26.21%1.55%106.09%
74
605.070.36.20%1.55%105.80%7297.61%
75
615.174.66.19%1.55%105.53%
76
625.279.36.18%1.54%105.28%
77
635.384.26.17%1.54%105.04%
78
645.389.36.16%1.54%104.82%
79
655.494.86.15%1.54%104.61%
80
665.5100.76.14%1.53%104.41%
81
675.6106.96.13%1.53%104.22%
82
685.7113.46.12%1.53%104.05%
83
695.8120.36.12%1.53%103.89%
84
705.8127.76.11%1.53%103.73%
85
715.9135.56.10%1.53%103.59%
86
726.0143.86.10%1.52%103.45%14499.85%
87
736.1152.56.09%1.52%103.32%
88
746.2161.86.09%1.52%103.20%
89
756.3171.76.08%1.52%103.09%
90
766.3182.16.08%1.52%102.98%
91
776.4193.26.07%1.52%102.88%
92
786.5204.96.07%1.52%102.78%
93
796.6217.46.06%1.52%102.69%
94
806.7230.66.06%1.52%102.61%
95
816.8244.56.06%1.51%102.53%
96
826.8259.36.05%1.51%102.45%
97
836.9275.06.05%1.51%102.38%
98
847.0291.76.05%1.51%102.32%
99
857.1309.36.05%1.51%102.25%
100
867.2328.06.04%1.51%102.19%