Growth projections under Piketty rates
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Piketty's Projected Growth Rates for SSA, China, and India
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U.S.
Sub-Saharan Africa
ChinaIndia
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2012-20301.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%
Note: The chart presented in the blog post uses output per capita measured in current exchange rates in 2012 as the starting point.
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2030-20501.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%
Alternatively, the same calculation could be carried out using 2012 figures calculated using PPP exchange rates.
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2050-20701.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%
The gaps are smaller using PPP exchange rates for the starting point.
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2070-21001.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%
Both sets of projections are shown below.
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Source: Table S2.3
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(sheet TS2.3 of http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/xls/Chapter2TablesFigures.xlsx)
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Note: Growth rate used for U.S. is listed as for "North America"
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Source for 2012 output per capitafigures: Table S1.5 (sheet TS1.5 of http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/xls/Chapter1TablesFigures.xlsx)
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Output per capita in euros
Output per capita in euros
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Growth Rates
Starting with 2012 figures using current exchange rates
Starting with 2012 figures using PPP exchange rates
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U.S.SSAChinaIndiaUSSSAChinaIndiaUSSSAChinaIndia
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20121.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%38,3191,2004,7341,25140,6642,0457,6733,200
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20131.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%3877912604971131441152214880563360
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20141.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%3924413235220138041646225584593528
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20151.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%3971513895481144942145236888823704
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20161.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%4019214595755152142651248693263890
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20171.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%4067415326043159743163261097934084
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20181.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%41162160963451677436812741102824288
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20191.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%41656168966621761442052878107964503
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20201.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%42156177369951849447353022113364728
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20211.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%42662186273451941452723173119034964
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20221.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%43174195577122038458163332124985213
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20231.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%43692205380982140463653498131235473
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20241.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%44216215685022247469223673137795747
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20251.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%44747226389282360474853857144686034
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20261.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%45283237693742478480554050151926336
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20271.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%45827249598432602486314252159516653
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20281.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%463772620103352732492154465167496985
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20291.20%5.00%5.00%5.00%469332751108512868498054688175867335
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20301.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%474972889113943012504034922184657701
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20311.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%480663004118503132510085119192048009
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20321.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%486433124123243257516205324199728330
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20331.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%492273249128173388522395537207718663
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20341.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%498183379133293523528665758216029009
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20351.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%504163514138633664535015989224669370
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20361.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%510213655144173811541436228233659745
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20371.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5163338011499439635479264772429910134
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20381.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5225239531559441225545067362527110540
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20391.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5287941111621742865611570062628210961
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20401.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5351442761686644585678972862733311400
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20411.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5415644471754146365747075782842711856
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20421.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5480646251824248225816078812956412330
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20431.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5546448101897250155885881963074612823
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20441.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5612950021973152155956485243197613336
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20451.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5680352022052054246027988653325513870
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20461.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5748454102134156416100292193458514424
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20471.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5817456272219458666173495883596915001
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20481.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%5887258522308261016247599723740815602
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20491.20%4.00%4.00%4.00%59579608624006634563225103703890416226
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20501.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%60294632924966659963983107854046016875
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20511.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%61017645625340673164751110014106717212
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20521.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%61749658525720686565528112214168317556
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20531.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%62490671726106700366315114454230817907
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20541.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%63240685126498714367110116744294318266
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20551.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%63999698826895728667916119084358718631
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20561.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%64767712827299743168731121464424119004
60
20571.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%65544727027708758069555123894490419384
61
20581.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%66331741628124773270390126374557819771
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20591.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%67127756428546788671235128894626220167
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20601.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%67932771528974804472090131474695520570
64
20611.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%68748787029408820572955134104766020981
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20621.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%69573802729850836973830136784837521401
66
20631.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%70407818830297853674716139524910021829
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20641.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%71252835130752870775613142314983722266
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20651.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%72107851931213888176520145155058422711
69
20661.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%72973868931681905977438148065134323165
70
20671.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%73848886332156924078368151025211323629
71
20681.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%74735904032639942579308154045289524101
72
20691.20%2.00%1.50%2.00%75631922133128961380260157125368824583
73
20701.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%76539940533625980581223160265449425075
74
20711.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%77457954634029995382197162675514825451
75
20721.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%783879689344371010283184165115580925833
76
20731.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%793289835348501025384182167585647926220
77
20741.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%802799982352691040785192170105715726613
78
20751.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8124310132356921056386214172655784327013
79
20761.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8221810284361201072287249175245853727418
80
20771.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8320410438365541088388296177875923927829
81
20781.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8420310595369921104689356180535995028247
82
20791.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8521310754374361121290428183246067028670
83
20801.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8623610915378851138091513185996139829100
84
20811.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8727111079383401155092611188786213429537
85
20821.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8831811245388001172493723191616288029980
86
20831.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%8937811414392661189994847194496363530430
87
20841.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%9045011585397371207895985197406439830886
88
20851.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%9153611759402141225997137200376517131349
89
20861.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%9263411935406961244398303203376595331820
90
20871.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%9374612114411851263099482206426674432297
91
20881.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%94871122964167912819100676209526754532781
92
20891.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%96009124804217913011101884212666835633273
93
20901.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%97161126674268513207103107215856917633772
94
20911.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%98327128574319713405104344219097000634279
95
20921.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%99507130504371613606105596222377084634793
96
20931.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%100701132464424013810106864225717169735315
97
20941.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%101909134454477114017108146229107255735844
98
20951.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%103132136464530814227109444232537342836382
99
20961.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%104370138514585214441110757236027430936928
100
20971.20%1.50%1.20%1.50%105622140594640214657112086239567520037482
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Sheet1