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This spreadsheet contains two ways of prioritizing opportunities to improve several dozen of the world's most important institutions. It contains two models: one focused on the impact of each institution's decisions on global wellbeing-adjusted life-years over the next 10 years ('WELLBYs' sheet), and the impact of each institution's decisions on the probability of existential risk over the next 100 years ('X-risk' sheet).
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It was primarily developed by Ian David Moss for the Effective Institutions Project. Emil Iftekhar, Matt Lerner, and Sam Nolan assisted with estimates for many of the variables. A number of additional volunteers contributed background research on individual institutions.
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For more about this project, please see: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ttpSEgE3by7AAhQ7w/improving-institutional-decision-making-which-institutions-a
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WARNING: This model is a work in progress -- please excuse its imperfections. It should not be shared in its current state without permission.
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All estimates have been checked for egregious errors, but smaller inconsistencies and instances of questionable judgment may remain. Finding and fixing these could result in moderate changes to the model's outputs and conclusions.
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Additional documentation for most estimates is available on request.
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