Magic - Chance to Draw - Google Sheets

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	O	P	Q
1	Deck Size	60									Need Help?	Scroll over: -->		Examples / Howto
2	Cards Drawn	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	15	20
3	Turn # on Play					1	2	3	4	5	6	9	14	1)	How does this work?
4	Turn # on Draw					0	1	2	3	4	5	8	13		Rows 2-5 are used by the blue-shaded tables (rows 7-23) to denote how many cards
5	Mulled to #	3	4	5	6										must be drawn for a given chance-to-draw calculation. For example, cell G11 is the
6															chance of seeing at least one of a playset by turn 2 on the play or turn 1 on the draw.
7	Copies of Card	% Chance to Open with 1 or More					% Chance to Draw 1 or More by Turn # Above								The green tables below depend only on the deck size, shaded in purple.
8	1	5.0	6.7	8.3	10	12	13	15	17	18	20	25	33
9	2	10	13	16	19	22	25	28	31	34	36	44	56	2)	Example: You're debating between using 2 or 3 of a card in your deck. What is
10	3	14	19	23	28	32	35	39	43	46	49	59	71		the increased chance of drawing one by turn three if you play the extra copy?
11	4	19	25	30	35	40	44	49	53	57	60	69	81		Look at the blue-shaded tables. Column H describes turn three on the play. There's
12	8	35	44	52	59	65	71	75	79	82	85	92	97		a 39% chance of drawing a Knight by turn three with 3 copies (cell H10), and a 28%
13	12	49	60	69	75	81	85	89	91	93	95	98	100		chance with only 2 copies (cell H9), giving an 11% increase for adding the third copy.
14	16	61	72	80	86	90	93	95	97	98	98	100	100		If you're on the draw, you can compare cell I9 to I10 for a 12% increased chance.
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16	Copies of Card	% Chance to Open with a Pair or More					% Chance to Draw a Pair or More by Turn # Above							3)	What about 8 Lords in Merfolk? 12 mana rituals in Storm? 16 Bolts in Burn?
17	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		As in (2) above, but look at rows further down that match the numbers of similar cards
18	2	0.17	0.34	0.56	0.85	1.2	1.6	2.0	2.5	3.1	3.7	5.9	11		in the deck. For example, a deck with 8 similar cards will have a 71% chance of seeing
19	3	0.50	0.99	1.6	2.4	3.4	4.4	5.6	6.9	8.4	10	15	26		at least one by turn 2 on the play (cell G12), and a 29% chance for at least two (G21).
20	4	0.99	1.9	3.2	4.6	6.3	8.2	10	13	15	18	26	41		Chances go up to 75% and 34% respectively on the draw (cells H12 and H21).
21	8	4.4	8.2	13	18	23	29	34	40	45	51	65	82
22	12	10	18	26	34	43	51	58	65	71	76	87	96	4)	How do you maximize starting with exactly 2-3 land (without mulling)?
23	16	17	29	40	51	61	69	76	82	86	90	96	99		Look at the green-shaded tables. We want to start with 2-3 land, so we want the tan
24															and yellow cells in columns D and E. When we're on the play, we maximize chances
25	Lands in Deck	% Chance to Open on 7 with Exactly X Lands													with 21 land. However, our best chances on the draw are with 18-19 land.
26		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7						The best compromise is 20 land (with 19 being a close second).
27	16	10	29	34	20	6.2	1.1	0.09	0.00
28	17	8.3	27	34	22	7.6	1.4	0.14	0.01					Disclaimers
29	18	7.0	24	34	24	9.1	1.9	0.20	0.01
30	19	5.8	22	33	25	11	2.5	0.29	0.01						This assumes there are no draw spells, tutors to rip addition cards out of the deck, etc.
31	20	4.8	20	32	27	12	3.1	0.40	0.02						"100%" chance is not exactly 100, as we're rounding to two significant figures.
32	21	4.0	18	31	28	14	3.9	0.55	0.03
33	22	3.3	16	30	29	16	4.8	0.73	0.04					Contact
34	23	2.7	14	29	30	18	5.8	0.97	0.06
35	24	2.2	12	27	31	20	6.9	1.3	0.09						Questions? Suggestions? PM Curby on MTGSalvation or on The Source.
36															I'm Curby#3347 on these Discord servers:
37	Lands in Deck	% Chance to Enter First Main with X-Y Lands													Pauper	https://discord.gg/xQsar9V
38		2-3				3-4				2-4					Legacy	https://discord.gg/xvtCg9B
39		Mull 2x	Mull 1x	Keep	Draw	Mull 2x	Mull 1x	Keep	Draw	Mull 2x	Mull 1x	Keep	Draw		EDH	https://discord.gg/49NaUvq
40	16	39	47	53	57	11	18	26	33	40	51	60	67
41	17	42	50	56	58	13	21	29	37	44	55	63	69	Resources
42	18	45	53	57	58	15	24	33	41	47	58	66	72
43	19	48	55	59	58	17	27	36	44	51	62	69	74		http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/frank-analysis-how-many-colored-mana-sources-do-you-need-to-consistently-cast-your-spells/
44	20	51	57	59	58	20	30	39	47	54	65	72	75		http://www.thrabenuniversity.com/?page_id=1288
45	21	53	59	60	57	22	33	42	49	57	68	74	76		https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J8mAB7x7VKgXIJOLRwGTH7DTFEDimiaKbWesaas8PfI/edit?usp=sharing
46	22	56	60	59	55	25	36	45	51	61	70	75	76
47	23	58	61	59	53	28	39	48	53	64	73	77	76	Changelog
48	24	59	61	58	51	30	42	51	54	66	75	77	75
49														2018-03-27		Updated contact info
50
51														2018-01-10		Added link to Frank Karsten Colored Sources Tables above
52
53														2017-08-23		Corrected 2sigfig display for values in range [0,1)
54																Added limited and commander sheets
55																Added resources section above
56																Merged cells and deleted empty rows to clean up whitespace
57																Replaced 3-5 land qty. in fourth table with 3-4 range
58																Explained how the first two tables work.
59
60														2015-09-09		Better equations, 2 sigfig percentage display (except for 0.0)
61																Multiple playset support (rows 12-14, 21-23)
62																Fleshed out land range chance table
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