RecursiveTrueVoteModel210
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1968-2008 Recursive Presidential True Vote Model
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Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
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2/24/11
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http://richardcharnin.com/
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We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media.
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It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote.
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This is self-evident since the number of votes cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the True Vote shares cannot equal the recorded shares.
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In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes.
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Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%).
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Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote.
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In the1968-2008 elections, the average presidential recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican.
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We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats.
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Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote.
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Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies.
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Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized.
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Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Optical scanned paper ballots are rarely hand-counted.
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In addition, invisible central computers that tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming.
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Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified.
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Oregon is the only paper ballot state which mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties. Its vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections.
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It follows that the first step in calculating the True Vote is to estimate the number of uncounted votes.
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The Census Bureau surveys total votes cast in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula:
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Net Uncounted Vote = Census Total Votes Cast - Official Recorded Vote
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The Net Uncounted Vote is greater than zero when the number of uncounted votes exceeds the number of stuffed ballots.
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Net Uncounted Vote = Uncounted Votes – Stuffed ballots
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Key parameters in calculating the True Vote are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters
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and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints.
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The number of returning voters must be less than the number who actually voted in the previous election.
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In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints.
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The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if the number of returning voters exceeds the number still living.
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We need to estimate voter mortality and turnout of prior election voters. An estimated 5% of voters pass on in the four years from the previous election (based on mortality tables).
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Vote shares are hardly affected by changes in the rate. The turnout of previous election voters can be estimated from registered voter turnout and can vary
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from 90-98%, depending on voter interest. It is estimated that in 1992 and 2004, 98% of previous election voters turned out to vote.
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Given voter mortality and turnout of living voters from the previous election, we can now calculate an estimate for the number of returning voters.
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There are 5 calculation methods.
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Method 1:
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Final National Exit Poll
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The returning voter mix and vote shares are adjusted to match the recorded vote.
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The Final NEP return voter mix for the 1968, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections was impossible.
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In each election, the mix implied there was more than 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters.
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Method 2:
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Returning voters based on previous election Recorded vote
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Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Recorded – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
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Given returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election:
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New voters = Total Votes Recorded in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (recorded)
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Note that by calculating returning voters based on total recorded votes, we understate the Democratic vote share, since the calculation does not include
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the uncounted votes. This method is analogous to the exit pollsters designing a sample based on the previous election voting demographics.
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Method 3:
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Returning voters based on previous election Total Votes Cast:
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Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
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Given the number of returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election:
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New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (cast)
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Next we need to calculate the number of returning voters for each candidate
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Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic recorded vote + 75% of the uncounted votes in the previous election
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Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican recorded vote + 25% of the uncounted votes in the previous election
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Method 4:
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Returning voters based on previous election unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
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In Method 2, we assume that votes cast is exactly equal to the sum of the recorded and uncounted votes.
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Another approach would be to calculate the votes cast for each candidate by applying the previous election unadjusted exit poll shares.
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Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * Exit Poll – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
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Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election
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Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election
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New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters
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Method 5:
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Returning voters based on previous election True Vote
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This is a recursive process. The current election True vote is a function of the prior election True vote
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Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * True Vote – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
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New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election
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Vote shares can be calculated for all elections since 1972 using the following methods:
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1. Final National Exit Poll (forced to match)
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2. Returning voters based on previous election recorded vote
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3. Returning voters based on previous election votes cast
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4. Returning voters based on previous unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
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5. Returning voters based on previous election True Vote (the best measure)
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Note that the Excel command used to create "what-if" sensitivity analysis tables is not available in the Google Spreadsheet Doc.
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