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1 | 1968-2008 Recursive Presidential True Vote Model | |||||

2 | ||||||

3 | Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll) | |||||

4 | 2/24/11 | |||||

5 | ||||||

6 | http://richardcharnin.com/ | |||||

7 | ||||||

8 | We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media. | |||||

9 | It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote. | |||||

10 | This is self-evident since the number of votes cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the True Vote shares cannot equal the recorded shares. | |||||

11 | In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes. | |||||

12 | Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%). | |||||

13 | Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote. | |||||

14 | ||||||

15 | In the1968-2008 elections, the average presidential recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican. | |||||

16 | We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats. | |||||

17 | ||||||

18 | Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote. | |||||

19 | Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies. | |||||

20 | Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized. | |||||

21 | ||||||

22 | Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Optical scanned paper ballots are rarely hand-counted. | |||||

23 | In addition, invisible central computers that tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming. | |||||

24 | Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified. | |||||

25 | Oregon is the only paper ballot state which mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties. Its vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections. | |||||

26 | ||||||

27 | It follows that the first step in calculating the True Vote is to estimate the number of uncounted votes. | |||||

28 | The Census Bureau surveys total votes cast in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula: | |||||

29 | Net Uncounted Vote = Census Total Votes Cast - Official Recorded Vote | |||||

30 | ||||||

31 | The Net Uncounted Vote is greater than zero when the number of uncounted votes exceeds the number of stuffed ballots. | |||||

32 | Net Uncounted Vote = Uncounted Votes – Stuffed ballots | |||||

33 | ||||||

34 | Key parameters in calculating the True Vote are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters | |||||

35 | and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints. | |||||

36 | The number of returning voters must be less than the number who actually voted in the previous election. | |||||

37 | In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints. | |||||

38 | ||||||

39 | The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if the number of returning voters exceeds the number still living. | |||||

40 | ||||||

41 | We need to estimate voter mortality and turnout of prior election voters. An estimated 5% of voters pass on in the four years from the previous election (based on mortality tables). | |||||

42 | Vote shares are hardly affected by changes in the rate. The turnout of previous election voters can be estimated from registered voter turnout and can vary | |||||

43 | from 90-98%, depending on voter interest. It is estimated that in 1992 and 2004, 98% of previous election voters turned out to vote. | |||||

44 | ||||||

45 | Given voter mortality and turnout of living voters from the previous election, we can now calculate an estimate for the number of returning voters. | |||||

46 | There are 5 calculation methods. | |||||

47 | ||||||

48 | Method 1: | |||||

49 | Final National Exit Poll | |||||

50 | ||||||

51 | The returning voter mix and vote shares are adjusted to match the recorded vote. | |||||

52 | The Final NEP return voter mix for the 1968, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections was impossible. | |||||

53 | In each election, the mix implied there was more than 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters. | |||||

54 | ||||||

55 | Method 2: | |||||

56 | Returning voters based on previous election Recorded vote | |||||

57 | ||||||

58 | Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Recorded – voter mortality) * Turnout rate | |||||

59 | Given returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election: | |||||

60 | New voters = Total Votes Recorded in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (recorded) | |||||

61 | ||||||

62 | Note that by calculating returning voters based on total recorded votes, we understate the Democratic vote share, since the calculation does not include | |||||

63 | the uncounted votes. This method is analogous to the exit pollsters designing a sample based on the previous election voting demographics. | |||||

64 | ||||||

65 | Method 3: | |||||

66 | Returning voters based on previous election Total Votes Cast: | |||||

67 | ||||||

68 | Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast – voter mortality) * Turnout rate | |||||

69 | Given the number of returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election: | |||||

70 | New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (cast) | |||||

71 | ||||||

72 | Next we need to calculate the number of returning voters for each candidate | |||||

73 | Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic recorded vote + 75% of the uncounted votes in the previous election | |||||

74 | Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican recorded vote + 25% of the uncounted votes in the previous election | |||||

75 | ||||||

76 | Method 4: | |||||

77 | Returning voters based on previous election unadjusted state exit poll aggregate | |||||

78 | ||||||

79 | In Method 2, we assume that votes cast is exactly equal to the sum of the recorded and uncounted votes. | |||||

80 | Another approach would be to calculate the votes cast for each candidate by applying the previous election unadjusted exit poll shares. | |||||

81 | Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * Exit Poll – voter mortality) * Turnout rate | |||||

82 | Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election | |||||

83 | Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election | |||||

84 | New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters | |||||

85 | ||||||

86 | Method 5: | |||||

87 | Returning voters based on previous election True Vote | |||||

88 | ||||||

89 | This is a recursive process. The current election True vote is a function of the prior election True vote | |||||

90 | Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * True Vote – voter mortality) * Turnout rate | |||||

91 | New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election | |||||

92 | ||||||

93 | Vote shares can be calculated for all elections since 1972 using the following methods: | |||||

94 | 1. Final National Exit Poll (forced to match) | |||||

95 | 2. Returning voters based on previous election recorded vote | |||||

96 | 3. Returning voters based on previous election votes cast | |||||

97 | 4. Returning voters based on previous unadjusted state exit poll aggregate | |||||

98 | 5. Returning voters based on previous election True Vote (the best measure) | |||||

99 | ||||||

100 | Note that the Excel command used to create "what-if" sensitivity analysis tables is not available in the Google Spreadsheet Doc. |

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