Morbidity from malaria (shared publicly from CEA)

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G
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2				Value	Notes	Quote	Source
3	Malaria direct morbidity
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5			YLDs per 100,000 (2016)	23.55	Global		http://ihmeuw.org/47hr
6			DALYs per 100,000 (2016)	760.27	Global		http://ihmeuw.org/47hs
7			Direct morbidity comprises what % of burden?	3.10%	Global		Calc
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9			YLDs per 100,000 (2016)	162.46	SSA		http://ihmeuw.org/47ht
10			DALYs per 100,000 (2016)	5224.73	SSA		http://ihmeuw.org/47hu
11			Direct morbidity comprises what % of burden?	3.11%	SSA		Calc
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13			Direct morbidity from malaria only accounts for ~3% of the disease burden of malaria
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15	Morbidity from Cerebral malaria
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17			Annual incidence of CM	575000			https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3056312/
18			Proportion of CM patients who die even when treated	20%	May be conservative - assumes all treated		http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3056312/
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20		Epilepsy
21			Epilepsy prevalence for CM survivors	9.2%	An increased prevalence of epilepsy was seen in children previously admitted with CM [9.2%; OR, 4.4; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.4–13.7] or M/S (11.5%; OR, 6.1; 95% CI, 2.0–18.3) compared with the unexposed group (2.2%). The most commonly reported seizure types were tonic–clonic (42%), focal becoming secondarily generalized (16%), and both (21%). Twenty-six percent of the active epilepsy group initially had EEG abnormalities.		http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0013-9580.2004.65103.x/full
22			Proportion of CM who survive then develop epilepsy	7.4%			Calc
23			Epilepsy prevalence without CM	2.2%			http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0013-9580.2004.65103.x/full
24			Difference	5.2%			Calc
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26			Annual epilepsy cases caused by CM	29670			Calc
27			Less severe epilepsy DALY weighting	0.263			http://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableImage?tableId=tbl2&pii=S2214109X15000698
28			Number of years lived with epilepsy	30			Guess
29			DALYs	234096.3			Calc
30			Global population (2016)	7,500,000,000			https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=global+population&oq=global+population&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1866j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
31			DALYs per 100,000 (2016)	3.121284			Calc
32			Epilepsy comprises what % of the burden	0.41%			Calc
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34			Epilepsy from cerebral malaria comprises <1% of malaria DALY burden
35			I haven't looked at other neurological deficits from CM because I think it'd take a while to come up with a decent estimate and my impression is they're not likely to be large (because CM is <1% of malaria cases). Other possible neurological deficits are noted in the quote			“Earlier studies suggested that surviving patients fully recover(12) but over the past 20 years, it became clear that many children sustain significant brain injury; 11% are discharged with gross neurological deficits(13, 14). Although some gross deficits, particularly blindness, ataxia and central hypotonia improve with time(15), 25% have long-term impairments especially cognition, motor function or behavior impairments and, epilepsy develops in 10%(15-18), table 1. The prevalence (<5%) and pattern of neurological deficits are different in adults. Thus, other than causing thousands of deaths, cerebral malaria is now considered a leading cause of neuro-disability in African children. The main risk factors include repeated seizures, deep and prolonged coma, intracranial hypertension, and hypoglycemia.”
36			I haven't looked at long term effects of getting (Non-CM) malaria in childhood because of this quote			"If the patient is able to survive the infection, or gets treatment in time, there are usually no long term affects of malaria infection. Some people who have suffered severe cerebral malaria (from P. falciparum) may experience some longer term neurological effects. Other types of malaria, such as P. ovale and P. vivax, can form dormant life stages which hide in the liver for weeks, months or even years, leading to relapse at a later date. However, apart from these recurrences, there are also no long term effects of infection with these types of malaria." http://www.malaria.com/questions/long-short-term-effects	http://www.malaria.com/questions/long-short-term-effects
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38			Bottom line is it seems unlikely to me that long and short term morbidity from malaria comprises >10% of the health burden so we probably shouldn't include it in our CEA.
39			It's possible that accounting for all possible long term sequelae of malaria would bring morbidity >10%. But I think that would be time-consuming and squeezing every possible benefit out of the CEA which we'd then have to do for everything else. One rough mental heuristic I'm going to start using is "diseases that affect children rather than adults are generally worth adding 5-10% to the CEA for unmodelled long run benefits"
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42			Josh calcs
43			Total malaria deaths, global (2016)	719,551	See GBD-Compare
44			Total DALYs, global (2016)	56,201,000	See GBD-Compare
45			Total YLDs, global (2016)	1,740,000	See GBD-Compare
46			Total YLLs, global (2016)	54,461,000	See GBD-Compare
47			YLLs per death, global (2016)	76	See GBD-Compare
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49			DALYs per death, GW assumption	15	Took a rough number for DALYs per malaria death under something more similar to GW assumptions
50			Total DALYs from deaths, GW assumption	10,793,265.00	Calc
51			% of burden from disability	13.88%	Calc
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53			Epilepsy caused by CM comprises what % of the disability burden of malaria	13.25%
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