1968-2008 Recursive True Vote Model

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1		1968-2008 Recursive Presidential True Vote Model
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3		Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
4		2/24/11
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6		http://richardcharnin.com/
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8		We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media.
9		It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote.
10		This is self-evident since the number of votes cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the True Vote shares cannot equal the recorded shares.
11		In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes.
12		Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%).
13		Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote.
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15		In the1968-2008 elections, the average presidential recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican.
16		We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats.
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18		Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote.
19		Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies.
20		Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized.
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22		Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Optical scanned paper ballots are rarely hand-counted.
23		In addition, invisible central computers that tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming.
24		Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified.
25		Oregon is the only paper ballot state which mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties.
26		Oregon's vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections.
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28		It follows that the first step in calculating the True Vote is to estimate the number of uncounted votes.
29		The Census Bureau surveys total votes cast in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula:
30		Net Uncounted Vote = Census Total Votes Cast - Official Recorded Vote
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32		The Net Uncounted Vote is greater than zero when the number of uncounted votes exceeds the number of stuffed ballots.
33		Net Uncounted Vote = Uncounted Votes – Stuffed ballots
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35		Key parameters in calculating the True Vote are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters
36		and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints.
37		The number of returning voters must be less than the number who actually voted in the previous election.
38		In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints.
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40		The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if the number of returning voters exceeds the number still living.
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42		We need to estimate voter mortality and turnout of prior election voters. An estimated 5% of voters pass on in the four years from the previous election (based on mortality tables).
43		Vote shares are hardly affected by changes in the rate. The turnout of previous election voters can be estimated from registered voter turnout and can vary
44		from 90-98%, depending on voter interest. It is estimated that in 1992 and 2004, 98% of previous election voters turned out to vote.
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46		Given voter mortality and turnout of living voters from the previous election, we can now calculate an estimate for the number of returning voters.
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48		To run the model, just two inputs are required:
49		1. Choose the election by entering the code (1-10), where (1=1972,2=1976...10=2008)
50		2. Enter the calculation method (1-5 below)
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52		Voter mortality and turnout default assumptions may be overridden:
53		1) Prior election 5% voter mortality. If you override, be sure to re-set the default.
54		2) Turnout of previous election living Democratic, Republican, Independent voters
55		Note: Do not enter data in the default turnout cells (the base case estimates).
56		Enter changes to the defaults in the cells indicated. Delete to reset the default.
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59		There are 5 calculation methods.
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61		Method 1:
62		Final National Exit Poll
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64		The returning voter mix and vote shares are adjusted to match the recorded vote.
65		The Final NEP return voter mix for the 1968, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections was impossible.
66		In each election, the mix implied there was more than 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters.
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68		Method 2:
69		Returning voters based on previous election Recorded vote
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71		Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Recorded – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
72		Given returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election:
73		New voters = Total Votes Recorded in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (recorded)
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75		Note that by calculating returning voters based on total recorded votes, we understate the Democratic vote share, since the calculation does not include
76		the uncounted votes. This method is analogous to the exit pollsters designing a sample based on the previous election voting demographics.
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78		Method 3:
79		Returning voters based on previous election Total Votes Cast:
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81		Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
82		Given the number of returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election:
83		New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (cast)
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85		Next we need to calculate the number of returning voters for each candidate
86		Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic recorded vote + 75% of the uncounted votes in the previous election
87		Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican recorded vote + 25% of the uncounted votes in the previous election
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89		Method 4:
90		Returning voters based on previous election unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
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92		In Method 2, we assume that votes cast is exactly equal to the sum of the recorded and uncounted votes.
93		Another approach would be to calculate the votes cast for each candidate by applying the previous election unadjusted exit poll shares.
94		Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * Exit Poll – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
95		Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election
96		Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election
97		New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters
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99		Method 5:
100		Returning voters based on previous election True Vote