A | B | C | D | E | F | |
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1 | 1968-2008 Recursive Presidential True Vote Model | |||||
2 | ||||||
3 | Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll) | |||||
4 | 2/24/11 | |||||
5 | ||||||
6 | http://richardcharnin.com/ | |||||
7 | ||||||
8 | We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media. | |||||
9 | It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote. | |||||
10 | This is self-evident since the number of votes cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the True Vote shares cannot equal the recorded shares. | |||||
11 | In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes. | |||||
12 | Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%). | |||||
13 | Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote. | |||||
14 | ||||||
15 | In the1968-2008 elections, the average presidential recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican. | |||||
16 | We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats. | |||||
17 | ||||||
18 | Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote. | |||||
19 | Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies. | |||||
20 | Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized. | |||||
21 | ||||||
22 | Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Optical scanned paper ballots are rarely hand-counted. | |||||
23 | In addition, invisible central computers that tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming. | |||||
24 | Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified. | |||||
25 | Oregon is the only paper ballot state which mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties. | |||||
26 | Oregon's vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections. | |||||
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28 | It follows that the first step in calculating the True Vote is to estimate the number of uncounted votes. | |||||
29 | The Census Bureau surveys total votes cast in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula: | |||||
30 | Net Uncounted Vote = Census Total Votes Cast - Official Recorded Vote | |||||
31 | ||||||
32 | The Net Uncounted Vote is greater than zero when the number of uncounted votes exceeds the number of stuffed ballots. | |||||
33 | Net Uncounted Vote = Uncounted Votes – Stuffed ballots | |||||
34 | ||||||
35 | Key parameters in calculating the True Vote are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters | |||||
36 | and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints. | |||||
37 | The number of returning voters must be less than the number who actually voted in the previous election. | |||||
38 | In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints. | |||||
39 | ||||||
40 | The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if the number of returning voters exceeds the number still living. | |||||
41 | ||||||
42 | We need to estimate voter mortality and turnout of prior election voters. An estimated 5% of voters pass on in the four years from the previous election (based on mortality tables). | |||||
43 | Vote shares are hardly affected by changes in the rate. The turnout of previous election voters can be estimated from registered voter turnout and can vary | |||||
44 | from 90-98%, depending on voter interest. It is estimated that in 1992 and 2004, 98% of previous election voters turned out to vote. | |||||
45 | ||||||
46 | Given voter mortality and turnout of living voters from the previous election, we can now calculate an estimate for the number of returning voters. | |||||
47 | ||||||
48 | To run the model, just two inputs are required: | |||||
49 | 1. Choose the election by entering the code (1-10), where (1=1972,2=1976...10=2008) | |||||
50 | 2. Enter the calculation method (1-5 below) | |||||
51 | ||||||
52 | Voter mortality and turnout default assumptions may be overridden: | |||||
53 | 1) Prior election 5% voter mortality. If you override, be sure to re-set the default. | |||||
54 | 2) Turnout of previous election living Democratic, Republican, Independent voters | |||||
55 | Note: Do not enter data in the default turnout cells (the base case estimates). | |||||
56 | Enter changes to the defaults in the cells indicated. Delete to reset the default. | |||||
57 | ||||||
58 | ||||||
59 | There are 5 calculation methods. | |||||
60 | ||||||
61 | Method 1: | |||||
62 | Final National Exit Poll | |||||
63 | ||||||
64 | The returning voter mix and vote shares are adjusted to match the recorded vote. | |||||
65 | The Final NEP return voter mix for the 1968, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections was impossible. | |||||
66 | In each election, the mix implied there was more than 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters. | |||||
67 | ||||||
68 | Method 2: | |||||
69 | Returning voters based on previous election Recorded vote | |||||
70 | ||||||
71 | Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Recorded – voter mortality) * Turnout rate | |||||
72 | Given returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election: | |||||
73 | New voters = Total Votes Recorded in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (recorded) | |||||
74 | ||||||
75 | Note that by calculating returning voters based on total recorded votes, we understate the Democratic vote share, since the calculation does not include | |||||
76 | the uncounted votes. This method is analogous to the exit pollsters designing a sample based on the previous election voting demographics. | |||||
77 | ||||||
78 | Method 3: | |||||
79 | Returning voters based on previous election Total Votes Cast: | |||||
80 | ||||||
81 | Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast – voter mortality) * Turnout rate | |||||
82 | Given the number of returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election: | |||||
83 | New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (cast) | |||||
84 | ||||||
85 | Next we need to calculate the number of returning voters for each candidate | |||||
86 | Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic recorded vote + 75% of the uncounted votes in the previous election | |||||
87 | Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican recorded vote + 25% of the uncounted votes in the previous election | |||||
88 | ||||||
89 | Method 4: | |||||
90 | Returning voters based on previous election unadjusted state exit poll aggregate | |||||
91 | ||||||
92 | In Method 2, we assume that votes cast is exactly equal to the sum of the recorded and uncounted votes. | |||||
93 | Another approach would be to calculate the votes cast for each candidate by applying the previous election unadjusted exit poll shares. | |||||
94 | Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * Exit Poll – voter mortality) * Turnout rate | |||||
95 | Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election | |||||
96 | Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast in previous election | |||||
97 | New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters | |||||
98 | ||||||
99 | Method 5: | |||||
100 | Returning voters based on previous election True Vote |