UNITY_County_IPC_Analysis_Jan 2017_FINAL Classification_02022017.xlsx
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Current (Jan 2017)Projection Feb-AprilProjection May-July
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Unity StateContributing Factors OutcomesCONCLUSION
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LHZCounty Population IDP PopulationKey contributing factors to acute food insecurityFood ConsumptionLivelihoods changeNutritionMortalityCurrentJustificationJustificationJustification
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kHazards/ vulnerabilityAvailabilityAccessPrevious IPC Oct-Dec 2016% of population in Phase 1 (None)% of population in Phase 2 (Stressed)% of population in #hase 3 (Crisis)% of population in Phase 4 (Emergency)% of population in Phase 5 (Catastrophe)Initial PhaseWould phase be higher without HA?Final Phase
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Northern Sorghum & Livestock

S11
Pariang 226,148 25,266 Displacement: No IDPs (REACH Sept & Nov 2016)
Refugees: Ajiothok and Yida, Pamir total more than 97000 (no new arrival)


High market Prices and High inflation is a major shock affecting the County as prices depends on supply from Juba (Nov/Dec) and the Sudan.Prices stabilised when traders started buying from Sudan traders. (no market data)

Late starte & below average rainfall- The rains started in July (2 months late) and August/Sept there were no rains. The last rains were in October. A signficant number of households did not plant sorghum because there were no rains during the planting months of August and September (assessment information not available).
Traditional cattle raiding: There is increased mobility in the area becuasethe season allows so, and in bordering areas with other counties and states there reports of cattle raiding resulting in asset loss. Reported by over 60% of the communities are vulnerable to cattle raiding.


Shocks for Unity state: 55.1% reported that food was too expensive, 41.7% reported human sickness and 41.4% reported they experienced insecurity and violence. ( FSNMS R19, R2)




Production: Rainfall received in Pariang was below normal during last croping season and this therefore has affected the area cropped and yield (note that the sorghum planting months of August and September did not have rains). However with support from Humanitarian assistance and from farmers own sources of seeds some farmers cultivated and harvested some crop.

Deficit in production is 10123MT representing 81% gap in annual cereal needs (CFSAM 2016/17 Report, R3).

Livestock Products: Livestock physical condition is normal. However, pasture and water availablity have started to reduces as a result of dry season and people moving their cattles out of Pariang in search of pasture. As a result, milk availability is limited at household level and the market.

Livestock ownership: 39.8% (FSNMS R-19)

Wild foods and Fish: Fishing is mainly during the rainy season where temporary ponds form. As a result, there will be none during the dry season (except near Lake Noh and Small River in a remote area of Gumriak). There are some wild plants people eat, though it is mainly during the rainy season. In the dry season they eat sorghum (kisra with hapam [wild leaves])

Food Aid: GFP (Sept - Dec. 2016): Total beneficiaries: 180,648 (Tot Mt: 1,963)

Food stocks: 72% responded the food stocks were only sufficient for less than 1 month . SP BAseline Data Oct2016
Markets: Markets are functioning normally in Pariang Town, Yida and Ajuongthok recently due to opening up of roads. The functionality of the market is very much typical of a normal dry season situation. However, transportation costs has significantly increased (one bag of sorghum costs about 150SSP from YIDA to Pariang town).

Physical Access and trade routes: Goods come to the market during dry season and big shipments are coming to the market recently as the roads are accessible by vehicles. The main types of commodities in the markets are: Cereal ( sorghum, wheat , millet, rice) , okra; Protein (meat, fish (dry), livestock, lentils, vegetable oil, Sugar, salt, rice, and other non food items.

Market prices: There is a price increase between January16 and January 17 (sorghum 50%, over 500% and labour 900%). The increases are also to do with the exhange rate of US dollar to the SSP. A sack of 100 kg sorghum is traded at an average price of 2,500 SSP (or 1 Malwa @85 SSP). The prices of livestock is expected to go down while the proce of sorghum goes up as the lean season encroaches. The wage rate is also expected to go down (more people selling their labour as a comping nmechanism)(R2)

Food expenditure share:
low-38.5%, medium-15.9%, high-10.5% and very high 35.1% (FSNMS 19)

Livestock market is functioning in Pariang . More livestock expceted to be sold as household look for cash to buy food.
(No price information)


*FCS- SP baseline study Oct2016 (R2)
Acceptable 74%, Borderline 16%, Poor 10%


*HHS (FSNMS 19) (R1)
None 10%, Slight 5.6%, Moderate 71.7%, Severe 12.6%,


*rCSI (FSNMS 19) (R1)
No to low 69.9%,
Medium 29%, High 1.1%

HDDS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
Low 43.8%, Medium 23.1%, High 33.1%


meal frequency (FSNMS 19) (R2)
adults - 1.54
and for children -1.88

FSNMS valid to Jan 2017 and representative at livelihood zone level (R2)

Asset depletion:
No coping 27.3%
Stress 13.1%

Crisis 31.8%
Emergency 27.8%

GAM 17.9
SAM 3.6

SMART Survey- CARE-8th & 12 of Dec 2016: R3 (using proxy from Abiemnom)
No informationPhase 2!Current (Jan) (35%)

Feb-April(30%)

May-July (20%)
Current (Jan) (50%)

Feb-April(55%)

May-July (65%)
Current (Jan) (15%)

Feb-April(15%)

May-July (15%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Phase 3YESPhase 3!The rainfall pattern for the county was below average, thus affecting negatively the areas planted and cropped, with a food gap of 81% in annual cereal needs. However, humanitarian assistance for vulnerable populations has been consistent and it is expected to continue during the analysis period.
Markets are functioning normally in Pariang Town, Yida and Ajuong Thok thanks to the fact that the roads have been opened recently, and are allowing flow of goods from Sudan. The high level of food price, which is visible, is mostly linked to the weak exchange rate (as traders are importing in hard currency) rather than to low level of supplies.
There is general security in the country, and movements are free.
There is a large presence livestock whose migration is regular and body conditions normal.
Regular humanitarian assistance to local populations as well as refugees is likely to continue, as per plan. Despite this, food prices are expected to remain high considering the inflation and the fact that most of the goods on the markets are imported using hard currency.
The availability of animal products (milk, meat) will slightly decrease as animals have migrated to Toch and only few milking cows are left behind.
Fishing activities will be very limited as the water will be drying out. Availability of wild foods, which compliments the diet.
The security situation should remain calm and no further displacement is foreseen.
With the starting of the rainy season, fishing activities will restart impacting positively on consumption and diet diversity. Livestock will start returning from Toch to Homesteads, therefore improving the availability of milk and other animal products. This will compensate for the shortage of food supplies from markets; for this reason (lower supply), combined with high inflation, the prices of food items on markets are likely to increase. Regular humanitarian assistance to local populations as well as refugees is likely to continue, as per plan.
The security situation should remain calm and no further displacement is foreseen.
6
Northern Sorghum & Cattle
S11
Abiemnhom 24,650 12,000 Displacement: Currently there has been no displacement. There are more than 30,000 residents located in Abiemnhom (CARE International) according to SMART survey conducted on 22nd Nov.2016 through Dec same period:

Insecurity: Relatively more stable security situation contributed to increase access and availability of food.

High market prices and High inflation affecting mainly food access.

Livestock diseases: However there is some epidemic diseases (HS, BQ, TRYP , Brucellosis amongst cattle and CCPP , Mange and Sheep & Goat pox in small ruminant because of lack of veterinary service.

Crop production: Crop (Cereal) production activities have been affected due to unreliable rainfall and frequent droughts in Abiemnom are the main drivers in 2016 The harvest was very limited with only 12% of annual food needs for this year. Deficit production of 1861MT representing 88% gap in annual cereal needs (CFSAM 2016 Report, R2)
Livestock Products: Livestock situation is good. Livestocks remained in their 'Luaks' since the crisis started. The normal movement pattern to grazing and did not happen due to the crisis. Pasture is in abundance due to sufficient rainfall. Milk availability is normal at household but very limited for sale in the market and most people with livestock have access to it .

Wild foods: Fishing activities is ongoing continued but limited due to lack of fishing gears. Fruits and wild vegetables are readily available as part of the coping to sustain the communal livings. People are not collecting water lilly but very poor households at times are collecting lalop fruit.

Access to Food is mainly through the market, own production, humanitarian assistance and Fishing.
Humanitarian assistance: 11,928 people were abled to access Food aid in Oct 2016. No further food distribution have commenced in this County since this period.
Markets: Markets are functioning normally .
Normal trade routes have been good due to the better road conditions. Goods are supplied from juba, Wau, Agok in warrap and Sudan.
The main types of commodities in the markets are : Cereal ( sorghum) , Vegetables ( Jew melons, Amaranthus, okra; Protein (meat, milk fish, livestock), Sugar, salt, rice and other non food items. With the exception of protein categories and vegetables , all other food groups are imported and are very much limited.
Market prices for cereals have increased significantly between same period last year . A sack of 50 kg sorghum same time last year was 650ssp. Currently it is 700SSP.
Livestock market is still functioning in Abiemnom. This is expected to continue.

*FCS (FSNMS 19 (R2)
Acceptable 42.6%, Borderline 32.1%, Poor 25.3%

*HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
None 10.5%, Slight 5.1%, Moderate 71.6%, Severe 12%,

*rCSI (FSNMS 19) (R2)
No to low 1.3%, Medium 28.1%, High 70.6%

HDDS (FSNMS 19) (R2)

Low 29.9%, Medium 27.4%, High 42.8%
FSNMS R19: (R2)
No coping 48.8%, Stress 12.9%, Crisis 19.3%, Emergency 19.0%


GAM 17.9
SAM 3.6

SMART Survey- CARE-8th & 12 of Dec 2016: R3 (improvement as compared to May 2016)

Correlation analysis (SMART Survey): Malnutrition in Abiemnom seems to be aggravated by both food security, poor public health indicators (morbidity and measles coverage) and sanitation.


SMART May 2016: GAM rate: 29.2%
SMART Survey- CARE-8th & 12 of Dec 2016: R3
Crude mortality rate (CDR) : 0.57 (0.32-1.00) deaths/10,000/day (alert level)
Under five death rate (U5DR) was 0.61 (0.14-2.67) deaths/10,000/day
50% of deaths were caused by illness, 25% by injury/traumatic and 25% were unknow

Phase 2!Current (Jan) (35%)

Feb-April(25%)

May-July (X20%)
Current (Jan) (45%)

Feb-April(50%)

May-July (45%)
Current (Jan) (20%)

Feb-April(25%)

May-July (30%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (5%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Phase 3YESPhase 3Stable security situation, which allows for regular supplies of goods from Juba, Wau, Agok and from the northern border with Sudan, contributing to an acceptable availability of food supplies (good road network from neighboring western states). The high level of food price, which is visible, is mostly linked to the weak exchange rate (as traders are importing in hard currency) rather than to low level of supplies.
The rainfall pattern for the county was below average, thus affecting negatively the areas planted and cropped, with a food gap of 88% in annual cereal needs. Intermittent humanitarian assistance.
There is a large presence livestock whose migration is regular and body conditions normal. The availability of animal products (milk, meat) is rather low as animals are migrating to toch and only few milking cows are left behind. Fishing activities are ongoing, but at a very low level because of lack of fishing equipment
Humanitarian assistance has been irregular in the last four months, and no major distribution happened since October 2016.
Regular humanitarian assistance is planned and is expected to take place throughout the analysis period. Even if the plan is fully implemented, an existing cereal gap of 917 Mt (from an initial 1,861 Mt) stands.
Food prices are expected to remain high considering the inflation and the fact that most of the goods on the markets are imported using hard currency. This would have a particular negative impact on those households not receiving assistance and depending on the markets.
The availability of animal products (milk, meat) will further decrease as animals have migrated to Toch and only few milking cows are left behind.
Fishing activities will be very limited as the water will be drying out. Availability of wild foods, which compliments the diet.
The security situation should remain calm and no further displacement is foreseen.
With the starting of the rainy season, fishing activities will restart impacting positively on consumption and diet diversity. Livestock will start returning from toch to Homesteads, therefore improving the availability of milk and other animal products. This will compensate for the shortage of food supplies from markets.
Considering the fact that this period is the peak of lean season, local cereal stocks are expected to be depleted and pressure on markets will be at its highest. Lower market supplies, combined with high inflation, the prices of food items on markets are likely to increase. Cereal gaps are foreseen at this time of the year.
Humanitarian assistance to local populations is planned.
The security situation should remain calm and no further displacement is foreseen.
7
Oil Resources, Maize, Livestock
SS09/SS11
Mayom 186,518 80,000 Displacement: No new spell of displacement due to relative security in the area.

Insecurity: Relatively more stable security situation. High market prices (high inflation) negatively affecting food access.

Flooding: Based on recent field reports (FSNMS R.19), 80% population in Mayom cultivated maize. However, mild floods due to heavy rains in July destroyed 10 % of maize farms or crops and homesteads. 5,000 people are said to have been displaced to some of the nearby highland areas. The affected payams include; Wangkeay, Mankien and Ruathnyibol (mainly Kernyang & Norjuoy Bomas)

Livestock diseases: - Livestock conditions; Mayom County has an estimation of 700,000 head of cattle, good conditions with most livestock moved to Toich for grazing where water & pasture is available (e.g. animals have moved to Bul 2, Koich and Malou by this period).
According to VSF-Suisse animal health staff officer on ground, no major livestock disease outbreak at the time but reported spots of lymph skin disease and the commonly known HS disease in addition to common diseases that affect mainly goats & sheep (e.g. PPR, CCPP and mange). The animals were last vaccinated in June 2016 by Red Cross.

Shocks for Unity state: 55.1% reported that food was too expensive, 41.7% reported human sickness and 41.4% reported they experienced insecurity and violence. (FSNMS R19, R2)
High food prices for cereals have increased significantly between same periods last year. A sack of 50 kg sorghum same time last year was 1000ssp Oct, 2015. Currently it is 3,000 SSP Oct 2016 (300% increase).
Production: Crop (Cereal) production activities have been affected due to unreliable rainfall and frequent flooding in Mayom are the main drivers in 2016 The harvest was very limited with only 12% of annual food needs for this year. Deficit production of 13685MT representing 88% gap in annual cereal needs (CFSAM 2016 Report, R3)
Livestock:
Livestock situation is good. Livestocks followed the seasonal movement pattern to their grazing lands. Most are now around the homestead. Milk availability is slightly below normal and therefore very limited is available for sale in the market.

Fishing: High availability of fish due flooding in the above affected Payams of Mayom. This is likely to increase HHs food consumption, especially for those involved in fishing activities. Nevertheless, inadequate fishing equipment is likely to limit this activity.
Wild foods: Fruits and collecting water lily are seemingly unavailable currently as part of the coping to sustain the communal living, instead people have resorted to consumption of other vegetable crops e.g., Okra planted around homesteads and wild vegetables like kudra.
Market Situation:
Markets are functioning in normally in Mayom although this is very much typical of a normal raining season situation.
Normal trade routes have been opened due to good road conditions. goods are supplied from juba, Wau, Agok in Warrap and from Sudan.
The main types of commodities in the markets are : Cereal ( sorghum, wheat , millet, rice) , Vegetables ( Jew melons, Amaranthus, okra; Protein (meat, milk fish, livestock), vegetable oil Sugar, salt, rice, and other non food items including petrol and diesel. With the exception of protein categories and vegetables, all other food groups are imported and are very much limited.

Humanitarian Assistance: in September 2016, 68,000 people assisted; in Oct 2016,only 14,000 people received food from WFP. Generally, in the Sept - Dec 2016 period, a total of 70,304 people have been assisted.
Markets are functioning normally .
Physical Access and trade routes: Normal trade routes have been conducive due to better road conditions. Goods are supplied from juba, Wau, Agok in warrap and Sudan. However, some goods are coming to the market mainly from Anet/Agok via Abiemnhom corridor and from Sudan.
The
main types of commodities in the markets are: Cereal (sorghum), Vegetables (Jew melons, Amaranthus, okra; Protein (meat, milk fish, livestock), Sugar, salt, rice and other nonfood items. With the exception of protein categories and vegetables, all other food groups are imported and are very much limited.
Market prices for cereals have increased significantly between same periods last year. A sack of 50 kg sorghum same time last year was 1000ssp Oct, 2015. Currently it is 3,000 SSP Oct 2016 (300% increase).
CARE SMART SURVEY, Oct. 2016 - FCS: Poor: 45.7%; Borderline: 21.9%; Acceptable: 32.2%

FSNMS valid to Jan 2017 and representative at livelihood zone level (R2)

Oil Resource LHZ
*
FCS (FSNMS 19) (R2): Acceptable 60.4%, Borderline 25.3%, Poor 14.3%

*
HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2): None 24.5%, Slight 6.2%, Moderate 54.4%, Severe 14.9%,

*rCSI (FSNMS 19) (R2): No to low 7.8%, Medium 16.8%, High 75.4%

HDDS (FSNMS 19) (R2): Low 44.2%, Medium 31.5%, High 24.4%


Northern Sorghum LHZ
*FCS (FSNMS 19) (R2): Acceptable 42.6%, Borderline 32.1%, Poor 25.3%

*HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2): None 10.5%, Slight 5.1%, Moderate 71.6%, Severe 12%,

*rCSI (FSNMS 19) (R2): No to low 1.3%, Medium 28.1%, High 70.6%

HDDS (FSNMS 19) (R2): Low 29.9%, Medium 27.4%, High 42.8%
FSNMS valid to Jan 2017 and representative at livelihood zone level (R2)

Oil resource:
No coping strategy CS- 45.3%
Stress Coping Strategy – 8.3%
Crisis CS - 24.4%
Emergency CS – 22%


Northern Sorghum:
No coping 48.8%
Stress 12.9%
Crisis 19.3%
Emergency 19.0%

CARE SMART Survey 26 Dec, 2016 (R3)
GAM 21.0%
SAM 2.7%
CARE SMART Survey 26 Dec, 2016 (R3)
Crude death rate: 1.41/10,000/day (1.05 – 1.90 95% C.I) - Most deaths were as a result of illness (76.6%) while injuries contributed 23.4% of deaths.
Under 5 death rate: 1.07/10,000/day (0.49 – 2.31 95% C.I)

Phase 2!Current (Jan) (20%)

Feb-April(15%)

May-July (10%)
Current (Jan) (50%)

Feb-April(40%)

May-July (30%)
Current (Jan) (25%)

Feb-April(35%)

May-July (40%)
Current (Jan) (5%)

Feb-April(10%)

May-July (20%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Phase 3NOPhase 3Presence of armed groups. Economic activities in the county are heavily disrupted because of the ongoing crisis. Farming and rearing animals, once very important economic and income generating actives, are currently low.
The rainfall pattern for the county has been various: some areas were flooded (Kernyang, Norjuoy and Riaak/Liengiera) while in other areas rainfall patters were below average, thus affecting negatively the areas planted and cropped. According to CFSAM data, the county experiences a food gap of 88% in annual cereal needs.
The county enjoys a quite developed road network, connecting it to Aweil and Agok, thus facilitating food supplies. Despite this, market prices for cereals have increased significantly since last year. A sack of 50 kg sorghum, which was 1000ssp in Oct, 2015, was sold at 3,000 SSP Oct 2016 (300% increase). This high increase is mainly due to high inflation levels, as goods are imported and paid for in hard currency. This very high level of prices has a very negative effect on HH consumption, which is generally poor and not diversified, as observed in the most recent SMART survey. The dependency on market in this area is high, with local population trading their cattle to buy cereals.
The humanitarian assistance has not been consistent, with low level of people assisted since October 2016.
There is a large presence of livestock whose migration is regular and body conditions normal. The availability of animal products (milk, meat) is rather low as animals are migrating to toch and only few milking cows are left behind. Fishing activities are ongoing, but at a very low level because of lack of fishing equipment
Presence of armed groups disrupting economic and income generating activities are likely to continue. Humanitarian assistance is planned throughout the analysis period. Even if the plan is fully implemented, an enormous cereal gap of 9,144 Mt stands (60% of total cereal needs).
Food prices are expected to remain very high considering the inflation and the fact that most of the goods on the markets are imported using hard currency. This would have a particularly negative impact considering the high dependence on markets of this population, which usually trades livestock for cereals.
The availability of animal products (milk, meat) will further decrease as animals have migrated to Toch and only few milking cows are left behind.
Fishing activities will be very limited as the water will be drying out. Availability of wild foods, which compliments the diet.
Presence of armed groups disrupting economic activities will continue.
Considering the fact that this period is the peak of lean season, local cereal stocks are expected to be depleted and pressure on markets will be at its highest. Lower market supplies, largely insufficient humanitarian assistance (as compared to the large cereal gap) combined with high inflation, the prices of food items on markets are likely to increase, and the overall food security of the population is likely to deteriorate. Shortage of cereals is expected.
However, some fish should become available as the rainy season starts. This could impact positively on consumption and diet diversity for about a quarter of the total population. Part of the fishing catches will be available on local markets.
Livestock will start returning from toch to Homesteads, therefore improving the availability of milk and other animal products. This will partially compensate for the shortage of food supplies from markets.
8
Oil Resources, Maize, Livestock
SS08/SS09
Rubkona 215,990 145914 (including PoC)Displacement: As of 31 December 2016 (OCHA): 119,853 people in the Bentiu PoC - 37% are children under 5. July - Dec 2016: 16,701 new arrivals in the PoC mainly from Leer and Koch county; 84% of these new arrivals reported LACK of FOOD as reason for moving to the PoC, 16% reported insecurity as the main reason. During the same period, 15,957 IDPs exited the PoC mainly to go farming (51%) or to rejoin families outside the PoC (43%). 91% of the IDPs thar have left the PoC moved to Guit and Rubkona Counties. In January 2017, increased arrival of IDPs from Leer, Mayendit and parts of Southern Koch to Bentiu PoC. These movemenrs comprised mostly women and children. Lack of food the main reason for leaving their places of origin.

Insecurity: In Sept 2016: Abductions and forced concription into the SPLA IO2 forces. Gender-based violence is reported in areas around the PoC and in the journey to it. Women have been raped while collecting firewood and vegetables outside the PoC (OCHA, Factsheets, January 2017).


Food pricest: there are currently only 3 functioning markets: Bentiu town, Bentiu PoC and Rubkona town. However, these markets have very limited stocks and the available stocks are very expensive due to the inflation and increased costs for transport. This is due to the hyper inflation affecting the country. (WFP South Sudan Market Price Monitoring Bulletin- Dec. 2016). In October 2016 inflation stood at more than 800 percent, and was the ninth more severe hyperinflation episode ever recorded (at this pace it takes less than ten days for prices to double).


Shocks for Unity state: 55.1% reported that food was too expensive, 41.7% reported human sickness and 41.4% reported they experienced insecurity and violence. (FSNMS R19, R2).

Health issues (OCHA Factsheet, Jan. 2017): As of 15 January 2017, 947 cholera cases including 9 deaths were reported in Bentiu town and in the PoC. About 76% of the cholera cases are children <14.
64% of the under 5 children were reported to have suffered from illness at any time during the two weeks-period preceding the survey. This level of morbidity is very high and it might indicate issues around access to potable water, and poor sanitation and hygiene (SMART Survey, CARE, Dec. 2016).
Measles vaccination coverage: 71.1% (below the 80% minimum recommended by WHO to prevent epidemics as well as the national minimum target, and it is below the 90% recommended by WHO and the 95% national ideal target, SMART Survey, CARE, Dec. 2016).

Production: 65% of the surveyed population did not harvest during this season (SMART Survey, CARE, Dec. 2016).
Compared to a total requirement of 20,172 Mt of cereals in Rubkona County, the estimated local production is 417: this is a negative of 19,754 Mt representing a FOOD GAP of 98% of the total needs. (CFSAM, Dec. 2016, R3).
Flooding negatively affected (or even destroyed) crops in many parts of Unity, while other crops have been looted or destroyed by armed groups (REACH, Situation Overview, Unity State, Nov. 2016, R3).


Livestock Products: Despite being mainly a pastoralist community with marginal activities of agriculture, 3 in four households did not own livestock at all. The proportion of households without livestock is alarming. Cattle were taken away during the conflict.
Limited livestock grazing along the river in Jazeera/Tong. Episodes of instant rading of livestock. Low availability of milk in the market, but sold at high price (15 SSP fpr few drops, to mix with tea; it was 5 SSP two years ago).

Fishing/Wild foods: Fishing activities is ongoing in most of the payams . This activity is very much limited due to lack of fishing gears. Wild fruits/vegetable (water lily) are available as part of the coping strategy to sustain the communal livings.
Main sources of Food:
Access to Food is mainly from humanitarian assistance, even though the resumption of fighting in multiple locations has impacted the response. Other sources of food include wild food , market, fishing and own production. 93% of the population received World Food Programme (WFP) food rations aka GFD and it was the main source of food in the past 3 months preceding the survey. Three percent of surveyed households have reported not to have any humanitarian assistance in past three months (SMART Survey, CARE, Dec. 2016) - Overall, only a quarter (25%) of surveyed households source their food in the past 7 days from their own production. As the survey period is a period immediately after harvest (post-harvest season), this is a low proportion. 8% depended on Gifts from neighbors, 20% households depended on the market for accessing their food in the past seven days, 75% had to borrow to meet their food consumption, and 25% households were dependent on food assistance to meet their food consumption needs (SMART Survey, CARE, Dec. 2016). In the face of hyperinflation in south Sudan the number of households dependent on the market for sourcing food and those who opt for stress indicators of food source shows the depth of food insecurity for the population of this area. Humanitarian assistance has been regular. WFP has been assisting a total of 271,849 beneficiaries (total Mt. 2,732) from September to December 2016.

Functionality: Since the conflict, rural and urban populations face movement restrictions, and therefore have little access to cash, land or other productive assets. Main markets and business centres also remain inaccessible, limiting opportunities for work, and leading to an increase in commodity prices for most goods. All communities within the area have seen an increase in food prices. Only three functioning markets: Rubkona town, Bentiu Town and Bentiu PoC.
Physical Access and trade routes: During typical period, goods are supplied from juba and Sudan. Currently , this is extremely difficult due to poor road condition along the different routes.

Type of Goods in the Market:
The main types of commodities in the markets are: Cereal (sorghum) , Vegetables ( Jew melons, okra; Protein (meat, fish), Sugar, salt, rice and other nonfood items. With the exception of cereal crops, protein categories and vegetables, all other food groups are imported and are very much limited.
Market prices: Market prices for cereals have increased significantly. Price of white sorghum in Bentiu market in December 2016 observed slight increase by 5% compared with Nov. 2016 where 3.5kg are currently sold at SSP 50. However in Dec. 2016 it is 509% higher than in Dec. 2015 and 443% than 5-years average price. This is expected to increase due to the current SSP depreciation.
(see excel table)

Type of trade:
Bartering is not happening in Bentiu Town Market but it is happening in the Payams.
OIL RESOURCES
1. FSNMS R19:
FCS: Acceptable - 32.7%; Borderline - 24.9%; Poor- 42.4% (R1)
Household Hunger Scale: *HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
None 27.3%, Slight 7.4%, Moderate 53.5%, Severe 11.7.1%,

- Reduced CSI categories: *rCSI (FSNMS 19) - No to low 74.3%, Medium 18.8%, High 6.9% - Reliability-2 - FSNMS valid to January 2017 and HHS is representative at livelihood zone level
-
HDDS: Low 64.4%, Medium 17%, High 18.6% - very significant deterioration of HDDS as compared to last IPC (even though lean season)
- meal frequency (FSNMS 19) (R2): day-adults - 1.50 (average) and for children - 1.75 (average)



NILE BASIN
- Food Consumption – *FCS (FSNMS 19) (R2): Acceptable 32.7%, Borderline 23.9%, Poor 43.5% - Household Hunger Scale: *HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2) - None 13%, Slight 3.7%, Moderate 77%, Severe 6.2%,
- Reduced CSI categories: *rCSI (FSNMS 19) - No to low 72%, Medium 16.1%, High 11.8% - Reliability-2 - FSNMS valid to January 2017 and HHS is representative at livelihood zone level
-
HDDS:Low 49.7%, Medium 17.2%, High 33.1% - very significant deterioration of HDDS as compared to last IPC (even though lean season)
- meal frequency (FSNMS 19) (R2)
day-adults - 1.38 (average) and for children - 1.81 (average)
Oil resource: No coping strategy CS- 45.3%
Stress Coping Strategy – 8.3%
Crisis CS - 24.4%
Emergency CS – 22%


Nile Basin
No coping strategy 32%
Stress Coping Strategy – 4.8%
Crisis CS - 51%
Emergency CS – 12.2%

GAM 20.2 ; SAM 2.8;
SMART Survey- CARE-8th Dec 2016 (R3)

GAM result is over WHO’s 15% emergency. Wasting based on MUAC rates were 10.7% (7.9-14.4 95% CI) <125 mm (GAM), with 0.7% (0.2- 2.2 95% CI) < 115mm (SAM). .
• There were no cases of oedema
• 22% of 6-59 months old children are stunted, while 9 % are severely stunted; Global underweight prevalence25.1 % (20.2-30.8 95% CI), which is classified as high based on WHO emergency threshold.
CARE SMART Survey 8 December, 2016 (R3) :
CDR(10000/day)- 2.64 (1.87-3.72 95% C.I) - extremely high increase since last IPC round
U5 CDR(10,000/day)-1.11 (0.48-2.57 95% C.I) - extremely high increase since last IPC round
Phase 3Current (Jan) (10%)

Feb-April(10%)

May-July (10%)
Current (Jan) (75%)

Feb-April(70%)

May-July (65%)
Current (Jan) (15%)

Feb-April(20%)

May-July (25%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Phase 3NO - apart from POCPhase 3The security situation remains fragile. Episodes of abductions and forced conscription into armed groups.
Since the conflict, rural and urban populations face movement restrictions, and therefore have little access to cash, land or other productive assets, limiting opportunities for work, and leading to an increase in commodity prices for most goods, because of limited supplies. All communities within the area have seen an increase in food prices.
There are currently only 3 functioning markets: Bentiu town, Bentiu PoC and Rubkona town. However, these markets have very limited stocks and the available stocks are very expensive due to the inflation and increased costs for transport. This is limiting the possibility of accessing food for populations depending on the market. Price of white sorghum in Bentiu market in December 2016 observed slight increase by 5% compared with Nov. 2016 where 3.5kg are currently sold at SSP 50. However in Dec. 2016 it is 509% higher than in Dec. 2015 and 443% than 5years average price. This is expected to increase due to the current SSP depreciation (see excel table).


Access to food is mainly from humanitarian assistance, even though the resumption of fighting in multiple locations has negatively impacted the response. Other sources of food include wild food, fishing and, in small percentage, own production.
Despite being mainly a pastoralist community with marginal activities of agriculture, 3 in 4 households do not own livestock anymore. The proportion of households without livestock is alarming. Cattle were taken away during the conflict. Limited livestock grazing along the river in Jazeera/Tong. Episodes of instant raiding of livestock. Low availability of milk in the market, but sold at high price (15 SSP for few drops, to mix with tea; it was 5 SSP two years ago).
Humanitarian assistance has been regular. WFP has been assisting a total of 271,849 beneficiaries (total Mt. 2,732) from September to December 2016. This covers a large part of the population.
Overall, the food security of IDPs in the PoC, thanks to the regular assistance, is slightly better than those of local population or IDPs hosted in the host community.

The security situation will deteriorate as offensives will most likely increase. Episodes of abductions and forced conscription into armed groups will increase.
Cereals stocks will be completely depleted: at post-harvest time, only a quarter (25%) of households source their food from their own production. 8% depended on Gifts from neighbors, 20% households depended on the market, 75% had to borrow to meet their food consumption, and 25% households were dependent on food assistance to meet their food consumption needs (SMART Survey, CARE, Dec. 2016).
Moreover, this county is the one experiencing the largest cereal gap (98%), according to CFSAM data.
Populations will be even more dependent on markets (those who can afford), humanitarian assistance and household sharing. Access to food is will even further depend on humanitarian assistance, even though fighting may negatively impacted the response. WFP is planning to assist around 270,000 people on a regular basis during the projection period.
Availability of fish will be limited to the areas along the river, while most of the swamps will have dried up during the projection period, though limiting the overall availability of fish. Wild foods will be exhausted at this time.
Market are expected to continue functioning, but prices are expected to rise even further, as per seasonal trends and 5-yrs analysis (see excel table).
The few livestock remaining are supposed to be migrating to toch during this period, but their usual movement will be disrupted by insecurity. This will further expose local communities to cattle raiding.
Local populations will rely even more on activities like selling of firewood and charcoal to cope with the high food prices. This will most likely undermine their own security.
Despite the substantial humanitarian assistance, the overall situation is expected to deteriorate.
The security situation will remain very volatile. Episodes of violence, abductions and forced conscription into armed groups will continue.
As this time corresponds to the peak of lean season, cereals stocks will be completely exhausted: at post-harvest time, only a quarter (25%) of households source their food from their own production. 8% depended on Gifts from neighbors, 20% households depended on the market, 75% had to borrow to meet their food consumption, and 25% households were dependent on food assistance to meet their food consumption needs (SMART Survey, CARE, Dec. 2016).
Moreover, this county is the one experiencing the largest cereal gap (98%), according to CFSAM data.
Populations will be even more dependent on markets (those who can afford), humanitarian assistance and household sharing. WFP is planning to assist around 270,000 people on a regular basis during the projection period.
Access to cereals for most households will be exclusively from humanitarian assistance (no own production stocks, market prices too high), but their diet will be slightly more diversified thanks to the availability of fish and wild foods.
Thanks to the starting of the rainy season, availability of fish will increase, even in the swamps, though the lack of fishing gear will be limiting the overall fishing. Wild foods will become available and will be used to compliment the diet.
Market are expected to continue functioning, but prices are expected to be at their seasonal highest, as per seasonal trends and 5-yrs analysis (see excel table).
The few livestock remaining will start enjoying local greener pastures, so improving the availability of milk.
Despite an expected overall deterioration of the situation considering the peak of the lean season, substantial humanitarian assistance will not allow the situation to further deteriorate.
9
*Nile River Fishing & Agro-Pastoral
SS08/SS09
Panyijiar 78,830 78,482 Displacement: According to SSRRA , since April 2016 there are 45,000 new arrival IDPs in Greater Nyal and 22,000 in Ganyiel. Cause of displacement: armed conflict and lack of food.
(CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2; OCHA SitReps, R3).

Insecurity: IDPs arrivals since April 2016 reported armed conflicts in Unity state (Leer, Mayandit, and Koch) in April 2016, as well as the Juba crisis in July 2016, as key causes. (CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2)
Extensive cattle raids in Nov.2016 (OCHA SitReps, R3)


Flooding: In Greater Nyal area rains started late in July 2016 and this was followed by floods that destroyed most of the cultivated areas. Farmers have reported very poor harvest this year. (CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2)

Food Prices: Prices for some commodities have more than doubled compared to last year. (CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2)

Deterioration in Community Resilience: The resilience of the community also deteriorated because of the recurrent conflict, poor market access, crop failure, livestock disease and natural hazards (floods). The chiefs also reported during the FGD that that there is a shortage of access to clean water. There are several non-functioning boreholes. There is confirmed risk of Cholera in Panyijiar and several organizations are working on preventive activities. This requires coordinated effort to create awareness and promotion of appropriate sanitation facilities. (CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2)


Health issues
Shortage of access to clean water. There are several non-functioning boreholes. There is confirmed risk of Cholera and several organizations are working on preventive activities. (CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2)

Cereal Production: Overall production for 2016/2017 season is able to cover only 13% (859MT) of annual needs leaving a deficit of 87% (5,686 MT). CFSAM Report 16/17, R3

CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2
Typical crops grown include sorghum, maize, beans, groundnuts and millet, and there is high potential for dry season vegetables and fruit production.
Poor crop yields are reported for the 2016/17 season coupled with the challenges of sharing diminishing resources with IDPs. In Greater Nyal area rains started late in July 2016 and this was followed by floods that destroyed most of the cultivated areas. Farmers have reported very poor harvest this year. In Ganyiel area crop yields were moderate.
Farmers have consumed their seed reserves.


Markets:
Markets are functioning to a limited extent. Greater Nyal area gets the supply of market commodities from Ganyiel using canoe transport. The market between Juba-Bor-Ganyiel functions through boat transport. The traders bring retail goods from Juba/Bor to the market in Ganyiel and take fish and small ruminants to Bor-Juba.

The river is currently the only means of transport. In the dry season, normally there are two overland routes for trucks:
a) Juba – Rumbek – Monyping – Panyijiar - Nyal
b) Juba – Rumbek- Maper – Panyijiar - Nyal.
These roads have not been used since the conflict started. No supplies come to Panyijar overland from Juba
(CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2).

Livestock:
Though livestock play a critical role in the livelihoods of the population, the community experienced loss of livestock assets due to the conflict. Veterinary services are lacking. Cattle raiding is a major concern (CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2).

Nile Resources LHZ:
Livestock Ownership: 59% of HHs reported they had livestock although most of the animals are not physically available. 41% did not own livestock (FSNMS Rd 2016, R2).

Fishing
The area has great potential for fisheries and a long standing history of fishery based livelihoods. However, fishing gear (twines, hooks, etc.) are not available neither at HH level, nor in the markets (CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2).

Humanitarian assistance
76,134 beneficiaries assisted in Dec 2016. January distribution is ongoing.
Interruption of humanitarian assistance from Sept. to Nov. 2016, with a negative impact on vulnerable populations.

Main sources of food
Access to food is mainly from humanitarian assistance, even though the resumption of fighting in multiple locations has negatively impacted the response. Other sources of food include wild food, fishing and, in small percentage, own production.
From September to December 2016, approximately 76,134 beneficiaries targeted with 1,274Mt food items was provided by WFP Mobile Team. January distribution is ongoing. Interruption of humanitarian assistance from Sept. to Nov. 2016, with a negative impact on vulnerable populations.

Nile Basin:
Expenditure shares (FSNMS R19, R2)
Very high spending (Above 75%) - 32.3%
High spending 65-75%-7.5%
Medium spending 50-65% - 8.3%
Low -51.9%

Food prices:
Markets are functioning to a limited extent, with very limited level of supplies. Market prices of commodities are higher in Nyal than Ganyiel. Prices for some commodities have more than doubled compared to last year
(CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2).

Livelihoods and income sources
The conflict has severely affected the livelihoods and caused disruption and loss of productive assets to a portion of the current host community. This, coupled with the pressure of sharing resources with new arrivals, has adversely affected the food security and livelihoods situation of the population
(CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2).


Nile River Fishing Resources:
*FCS (FSNMS 19) (R2)

Acceptable 32.7%, Borderline 23.8%, Poor 43.5%
*HHS (FSNMS 19) (R3)
None 13%, Slight 3.7%, Moderate 77%, Severe6.2%,
*rCSI
No to low 72%, Medium 16.1%, High 11.8%

HDDS

Low 49.7%, Medium 17.2%, High 33.1%
*meal frequency
day-adults - 1.38 meals,Children 1.81 meals


OIL RESOURCES
1. FSNMS R19:
FCS: Acceptable - 32.7%; Borderline - 24.9%; Poor- 42.4% (R2)
Household Hunger Scale: *HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
None 27.3%, Slight 7.4%, Moderate 53.5%, Severe 11.7.1%,
- Reduced CSI categories: *rCSI (FSNMS 19) - No to low 74.3%, Medium 18.8%, High 6.9% l
- HDDS:
Low 64.4%, Medium 17%, High 18.6% - very significant deterioration of HDDS as compared to last IPC (even though lean season)
- meal frequency (FSNMS 19) (R2): day-adults - 1.50 (average) and for children - 1.75 (average)






CRS Rapid Humanitarian Assessments, Dec 2016, R2
The conflict has severely affected the livelihoods and caused disruption and loss of productive assets to a portion of the current host community. This, coupled with the pressure of sharing resources with new arrivals, has adversely affected the food security and livelihoods situation of the population.
Food security and livelihoods situation is deteriorating owing to poor crop yields of this year coupled with the challenges of sharing diminishing resources with IDPs.



Nile River Basin – FSNMS, Rd 19 (R2):
No coping strategy: 32.0%
Stress CS: 4.8%;
Crisis CS: 51.0%
Emergency CS: 12.2%


Oil resource: No coping strategy CS- 45.3%
Stress Coping Strategy – 8.3%
Crisis CS - 24.4%
Emergency CS – 22%









IRC MASS MUACC screening - January 2017 - (R3 - sample size: 2,500 children)
GAM: 35.2%
SAM: 11.5 %

IRC SMART Survey - 26th April, 2016 (R1)
GAM: 16.9% (13.3 - 21.2 CI)
SAM: 4.5% (2.5 - 8.0 CI)


SMART Survey – Nov. 2015 (R2)
GAM: 21.6% (Proxy SAM: 4.8; Proxy GAM: 22.5)

SMART Survey – May 2015 (R2)
GAM: 24.2% (20.6 - 28.2 CI)
SAM: 7.2% (5 - 10.2 CI)


SMART Survey – Apr. 2014 (R2)
GAM: 32.8% (27.7 - 38.3 CI)
SAM: 10.8% (7.7 - 14.9 CI)

IRC SMART Survey - 26th April, 2016 (R1)
CDR 1.44/10,000/day (1.02-2.01 CI)
U5DR 1.77/10,000/day (1.04-3.02 CI)


SMART Survey – Nov., 2015 (R2)
CDR 1.79/10,000/day
U5DR 1.77/10,000/day

Phase 3Current (Jan) (10%)

Feb-April(10%)

May-July (10%)
Current (Jan) (25%)

Feb-April(25%)

May-July (25%)
Current (Jan) (45%)

Feb-April(40%)

May-July (40%)
Current (Jan) (20%)

Feb-April(25%)

May-July (25%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Phase 4YesPhase 3!The July 2016 crisis in Juba, which contributed to an influx of IDPs in Panyijiar County, has worsened the food security situation in the area as host communities have had to struggle with an increasing burden of sharing food reserves and resources with IDPs. Even after October 2016, the county has received a very high number of displaced people from Leer, Mayendit and Koch. New arrivals being integrated in the community but further pressure on already limited resources. No employment opportunities. The IDP population is almost double the one of local population.
The host communities have not yet recovered from the emergency and livelihoods shocks of the recent past, including armed conflict which has severely affected the livelihoods and caused disruption and loss of productive assets. Markets are functioning to a limited extent, and they are being supplied through boat transport. Market prices of commodities are high, as they compute the high costs for transportation. Prices for some commodities have more than doubled compared to last year. This is having a negative impact on the access capacity of not only IDPs, who do not own significant assets, but also local communities as their purchasing power has been eroded by loss of productive assets because of conflict.
The limited livestock is currently being moved out of homesteads towards toch in search of pasture and water, therefore limiting the availability of animal products (milk, meat).
According to CFSAM data, the county experiences a food gap of 87% in annual cereal needs.
Very high malnutrition rates, at famine level. GAM has been above the 15% WHO Critical benchmark for almost two years, since May 2015 SMART Survey. In December, cholera outbreak. The access to clean water is limited, as several boreholes are not functioning.
Humanitarian assistance has been interrupted from September to Nov. 2016, with a negative impact on vulnerable populations. Humanitarian assistance to 76,134 beneficiaries in Dec 2016. January distribution is ongoing. While assistance has been provided recently, the tonnage is inadequate to assist the entire IDP population in the area. People in phase 4 are those IDPs not assisted (around 25% of the total population).
The security situation within the county is expected to remain calm. For this reason, the county will keep receiving displaced people from areas where the fighting is active, like Leer, Mayendit and Koch. The IDP population is almost double the one of local population. New arrivals will put further pressure on existing limited resource, and impact negatively on the food security of the host populations as well.
Livelihood options in the county will be very limited: traditional petty trade activities will be no longer feasible as people’s purchasing power is very low. Fishing activities will be limited as fishing gears are inadequate considering the large population that will be relying on this activity.
No remaining food stocks from own production as the little 2016 harvest would be exhausted by mid-February (87% deficit to total annual cereal needs, as per CFSAM data).
Markets will still be functioning, even though to a limited extent. No cereal will be available in the market, as it has already been the case in January 2017. Prices will continue increasing because of inflation and increased demand, even though most IDPs will be arriving with little assets and cash (even if limited supplies of some goods are available, the access side is very problematic – IDPs as very destitute populations with no cash/no assets to sell).
The planned humanitarian assistance of 8,806 Mt Mt for the Jan – July 2017 period, for over 130,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for about two weeks per months.
Planned levels of assistance should be enough to prevent the area from experiencing emergency food insecurity levels, provided that the planned assistance is adjusted upwards if the IDP population further increases.
Food assistance is expected to be shared within the IDP community and probably even with the hosting population.

Food assistance is expected to be shared within the IDP community and probably even with the hosting population.
Livestock will start migrating to toch for greener pastures though further limiting the availability of animal products.
For the projected period, the very high malnutrition rates that have been observed in January 2017 are likely to persist, even if the level of assistance remain the same, given the further pressure on assistance from new arrivals. Moreover, people are exposed to high levels of infection due to unsafe and insufficient water supply and inadequate sanitation.
As the rainy season is starting, the overall security situation in the counties surrounding Panyijiar is expected to improve. Therefore, a reduction on the IDP inflow to the county is expected. Though returns to counties of origin is not foreseen. The IDP proportion over the local community will still remain extremely high, though putting even further pressure ion resources that are already limited considering the lean season.
Towards the end of the projection period, the availability of fish will be higher. Fishing activities will though be limited by inadequate availability of fishing gears considering the large population that will be relying on fishing.
As this period represents the lean season, no food stocks will be available from own production.
As most of the supply is done through canoes, from Juba, markets will most likely still be functioning. Prices will continue increasing as it normally happens during the lean season (low supplies level) and because of inflation.
The planned humanitarian assistance of 8,806 Mt Mt for the Jan – July 2017 period, for over 130,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for about two weeks per months.
Planned levels of assistance should be enough to prevent the area from experiencing emergency food insecurity levels, provided that the planned assistance is adjusted upwards if the IDP population further increases.
Food assistance is expected to be shared within the IDP community and probably even with the hosting population.
Livestock will start coming back from toch and the availability of animal products will be rising for the host community. Starting from July, some vegetables will be available, as well as some wild food.
Provision of clean water and adequate hygiene will remain quite poor for both displaced and host communities, while open air defecation remain common. There will be an increasing threat of infectious disease outbreaks, especially water borne disease, given crowded conditions and the onset of the rainy season. Given the intimate link between disease and malnutrition, the heightened risk of diarrhoeal disease and cholera may have a very severe impact on the nutritional status of the most vulnerable, particularly children under five, which is likely to remain dire. The prevalence of malnutrition, which has seasonal variations, will be highest during the projected period, as shown by the trend analysis.
Mortality rates, particularly among young children, are likely to increase, as high incidence of diseases, compromised immune functions and acute malnutrition can be a deadly combination during the projected period.
10
*Nile River Fishing & Agro-Pastoral
SS08/SS09
Leer 119,954 70,687 Insecurity:
- Two conflict incidents of 17th of July and the first week of August between the armed groups of SPLA Government and SPLA IO forces have seriously affected the majority of the affected populations of Pillieny, Adok and Thonyor payams
(Nile Hope, LEER COUNTY RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT, Sept. 2016 – R2)
- The July 2016 fighting caused extensive damage to Leer town and surrounding villages through looting and vandalization of humanitarian assets including health facilities. This forced all humanitarians to leave the area disrupting humanitarian interventions to the population of Leer and its surroundings.
- October 2016: Attacks of SPLA IG on SPLA IO1. November 2016: in Mir-Mir, Bieh and Rubkuay: conflict between SPLA IG and IO2 against SPLA IO1, resulting in displacement of people into Bentiu PoC because of insecurity and further destitution/ food insecurity. Generally: extensive fighting and deterioration of security situation resulting in displacement. November 2016: the area remains unstable because of continuous clashes between IO1 and combined SPLA - IO2.

Leer town: The security situation remains tense and the population in the TPA is expected to continue to grow. The villages of origin of the IDPs are evenly distributed within Leer County indicating the widespread insecurity in the county. Of the people in the TPA, many community members indicated that they came to the camp because they felt they would be safe. IDPs did not opt to get to Bentiu PoC or the islands because the journey is more dangerous and they feared that young children and the elderly would not be able to travel the long journey
(WHO, IOM, Concern - Leer Temporary Protection Area Report, Nov. 2016 – R2).

IDPs do not feel secure in the surrounding areas and have no intention to return to their homes for fear of attack by armed groups or of fighting escalating.
The key challenge to the humanitarian community will be to ensure access to lifesaving services for the population both inside the TPA and surrounding areas, without creating a major pull factor to the TPA or exposing IDPs to increased protection risks outside the TPA.
Since the July 2016 crisis in Juba, there has been intermittent fighting in the area surrounding Leer town, with the most recent spike in violence occurring in October and November 2016. SPLA forces from Leer and Mayendit were reported to have attacked multiple SPLA-IO positions in areas around Thonyor, Adock, Pilling and Mirnyal, whilst the SPLA-IO launched attacks in Rier, Nhialdiu and Kaljak and moved into areas closer to the town. After the fighting subsided, SPLA and SPLA-aligned militia groups are reported to have been involved in looting, harassment of nearby villages and cattle raiding, possibly identifying any groups outside their area of control as sympathetic to the SPLA-IO and subjecting them to severe security operations.
The roads from Leer town towards Gandor, Pilieny, Thonyor and Adok were not considered safe even during the daytime, and particularly so for young women.
Some people, particularly young women, expressed concerns about moving even within close proximity to the TPA due to the threat posed by soldiers and local youth who may harass them. The vast majority of participants noted that movement beyond a five kilometer radius of the TPA exposed people to significant risks from soldiers who search for people in the bush to attack them, steal from them or rape them.
CCCM Cluster South Sudan | Leer TPA Assessment Report – January 2017 (R2)


Displacement:
Unprecedented levels of displacement

Nile Hope, LEER COUNTY RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT, Sept. 2016 – R2
- July 2016: The two conflict incidents of 17th of July and the first week of August have seriously affected the majority of the affected populations of Pillieny, Adok and Thonyor payams, causing further displacement.
- Sept. 2016: The displaced population of Adok gathered in different locations of the islands and payams. For example, the majority of the community of Thonyor went to Torchriak, Dhornyal, Yang, Luor, Luoth, Whehay and Kok Islands. The Adok community, on the other hand, gathered in Meer and Torchteny. Pillieny population is in Hulu and Rupchai. According to the authorities, the total population displaced has been put at 32,100 HHs and is subject to verification (Need to verify these figures, as the Assessment team estimated this figure to be a little exaggerated).


IDP population figures, provided by ROSS secretary (in HHs), by island:
Kok: 1,500 - Looth: 1,500 - Torchriak: 20,000 - Toluong: 500 - Kom: 780 - Whehay: 1,020 - Rom: 270 - Torchthiel: 500 - Torchluoli: 500 - Meer: 830 - Rupchai: 2,200 - Thow: 2,500 - Total: 32,100

IOM, Concern, WHO "Leer Temporary Protection Area Rapid Assessment", Nov. 2016:
The resurgence of violence starting from November 2016 in Leer have continued triggering displacement to sites such as Bentiu PoC. In January 2017, increased arrival of IDPs to Bentiu PoC coming from Leer. Lack of food cited as main reason to leave their place of origin.
In Leer, many vulnerable people in the most conflict-affected areas are forced to remain in their areas, unable to make the long and difficult journey to Bentiu PoC. These include young children, the elderly and the disabled.. Most of the paryams in Leer County are currently empty, and people have seek refuge in the islands, mainly Touch Riak, Kok and Meer island, or in the TPA, for safety reasons.

CCCM Cluster South Sudan | Leer TPA Assessment Report – January 2017 (R2): The vast majority of people interviewed reported that they entered the TPA in October 2016 having been displaced several times since 2014. Inhabitants of surrounding villages had initially been hiding in nearby swamp areas during the fighting, however, there have been increased incidences of soldiers searching for civilians in the swamps. As a result, many of the more able bodied people fled to the Bentiu PoC site with others seeking protection in the TPA. Some people in the TPA expressed intentions to leave to the Bentiu PoC site, but had been discouraged by the leadership. Others planned to stay, but noted that if no services arrived, they would be forced to move elsewhere.

Market: no functioning market in Leer and most of other payams due to the ongoing fighting. Local population used to travel to Mayendit to buy food commodities such as sorghum however with the insecurity the journey is no longer possible.

Shocks (Unity state): 55.1% reported that food was too expensive, 41.7% reported human sickness and 41.4% reported they experienced insecurity and violence. (FSNMS R19, R2).
82% of assessed communities in Leer reported that deaths from hunger have occurred From Sept. to Nov. 2016 (REACH, Situation Overview, Nov. 2016, R2).

Risks
There are no fire breaks between shelters and as the dry season continues, this poses a major risk of fire spreading. This is a particular concern as many families were observed cooking food inside their shelters.
Movement beyond a five kilometer radius of the TPA exposed people to significant risks from soldiers who search for people in the bush to attack them, steal from them or rape them
(CCCM Cluster South Sudan | Leer TPA Assessment Report – January 2017, R2).


Health issues
Nile Hope, LEER COUNTY RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT, Sept. 2016 (R2):
Virtually all the HHs in the assessed areas access water from unprotected water sources, mainly river and swamps. Only 10% of the communities have reported to use some sort of HH water purification technique, mainly boiling.
100% of the IDP’s and host communities interviewed during the assessment have reported practicing open defecation. There were no existing emergency latrines in all the locations.
The open defecation presents a high health-related risk in the settlements of MEER center, KOK ISLAND, LOOTH, TOICH-THIEL, RUBCIAH, TOLUONG AND KOOM because they are deeply rooted in the bushes and surrounded by rivers and swarms where the population is confined. The open defecation practice coupled with the use of unprotected water sources and existing risk of WASH-related diseases in the area put the Islands at high risk of water borne diseases such as cholera and other diarrheal diseases as the adult women, men, boys and girls personal hygiene condition is bad.


Leer TPA: Significant open defecation in the immediate vicinity of the TPA and within the TPA, creating health risks.
There are no drains inside the TPA, which will pose a major issue at the onset of the rainy season with a high risk of flooding. This, combined with the open defecation, high congestion and the lack of soap and other hygiene items, poses a significant risk for the spread of water-borne diseases
(CCCM Cluster South Sudan | Leer TPA Assessment Report – January 2017, R2).


OCHA Factsheet, Jan. 2017 (R3):
90 cases of cholera reported as of 15 January 2017. Leer town, TPA: Respiratory tract infection was the leading morbidity at 31% (n=195), followed by malaria at 26% (n=166). Acute watery diarrhea contributed to 15% (n=97) of the consultations. Other morbidities included skin infections, eye infections, worm and injuries including gunshot wounds. No suspected cases of cholera during the assessment; unconfirmed reports of cases in an area called Kok. With open defecation observed around the TPA, a risk of cholera outbreak is imminent, given the linkage of some IDPs to cholera affected areas.
Production: Compared to a total requirement of 10,027 Mt of cereals in Leer County for 2017, the estimated local production is 358: this is a negative of 9,669 Mt representing a FOOD GAP of 96% of the total needs. (CFSAM, Dec. 2016, R3) Farms have been abandoned in most part of the County due to the current fighting. Flooding negatively affected (or even destroyed) crops in many parts of Unity (including Leer County), while other crops have been looted or destroyed by armed groups (REACH, SItuation Overview, Unity State, Nov. 2016). Farms have been abandoned but due to the insecurity. This therefore have negative effect in cushioning the already existing hunger gap during the lean period

Livestock Products: No livestock remained after exhaustive looting and cattle raiding. Pasture is in abundance due to sufficient rainfal but there is no livestock grazing. Milk availability is very low, only very small quantities supplied from Nyal at a very high price. IDPs in TPA do not have livestock so they do not have access to milk.

Fishing/Wild foods: Fishing activities is ongoing but on a very small scale in the hiding places due to lack insecurity. Wild fruits/vegetable (water lily) are available as part of the coping strategy to sustain the communal livings.
Food is the highest priority need in the TPA. IDPs are forced to leave the TPA in search of food, exposing themselves to protection risks, and survive largely on food such as water lily seeds and the lalob fruit.
Food collected from the bush often gives the children diarrhea resulting in health concerns.

Residents rarely travel more than 5km from the TPA, which severely restricts people’s ability to collect food and firewood.
CCCM Cluster South Sudan | Leer TPA Assessment Report – January 2017 (R2)


T
he main sources of food are humanitarian assistance, wild food and fish. However, because of the resumption of fighting, the humanitarian response has been negatively affected in multiple locations. In Leer county, the majority of civilians remain in the southern swamps and island areas where they have fled due to protection concerns (OCHA, Factsheet, January 2017. R3). None of the assessed communities in Leer reported adequate access to food in Oct. - Nov. 2016 (REACH, Situation overview, Nov. 2016, R2). Last food distribution by ICRC in the County was in Sept. 2016 (half ration).

Markets and trade: Markets are generally not functioning. Adok and Thonyor market that had been the main market in the county remain significantly disrupted with no food on the markets. Only functioning markets are currently in the swampy island, mainly Touch Riak and Kok. Supplies come from Nyal, taking around 1 day. The population living in other islands have to travel a very long distance (1 - 2 days) to reach markets in Touch Riak and Kok.
Previously, larger market supplies came from Juba and Sudan. Currently, this is not happening due to the persistent insecurity. Port Adok and Thayar port are both not functioning due to fighting.

Market prices: Market prices have increased significantly in the last two years in Leer County. A 5 l oil-tin of sorghum costing 250 SSP while it used to be 50 SSP two years ago. This is mainly attributed to the continuous SSP depreciation, increased cost of transportation and fighting. No livestock on the market. Main products on sale: oil, sugar, some fish and small quantities of cereals.

Type of trade: Credit to vulnerable households is still happening, even though on a lower scale.


Leer county: Consumption coping mechanisms local populations have developed include borrowing or seeking food assistance from friends and relatives. People in the area are consuming water lily, palm fruit and root, nim fruit plus gather wildly growing vegetables such as okra and tomatoes. Small consumption of dried fish.

Nile Hope, LEER COUNTY RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT, Sept. 2016 – R2
In the islands: some fish and wild foods.
*Meal Frequency:1.50 for adults and 1.75

Oil Resource Livelihood Zone (FSNMS Rd 19, R2)

*FCS (FSNMS 19 - R2)
Acceptable 32.7%, Borderline 24.9%, Poor 42.4%

*HHS (FSNMS 19 - R2)
None 27.3%, Slight 7.4%, Moderate 53.5%, Severe 11.7%,

*HDDS (FSNMS 19 - R2)
No to low 64.4%, Medium 17%, High 18.6%

*rCSI (FSNMS 19 - R2)
Low 74.3%, Medium18.8%, High 6.9%
*Meal Frequency:1.50 for adults and 1.75


NILE BASIN (FSNMS 19) (R2)
FCS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
Acceptable 32.7%, Borderline 23.9%, Poor 43.5% -


Household Hunger Scale - HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
None 13%, Slight 3.7%, Moderate 77%, Severe 6.2%,


Reduced CSI - rCSI (FSNMS 19) - No to low 72%, Medium 16.1%, High 11.8% - Reliability-2 - FSNMS valid to January 2017 and HHS is representative at livelihood zone level

HDDS: Low 49.7%, Medium 17.2%, High 33.1% - very significant deterioration of HDDS as compared to last IPC (even though lean season)
Nile Hope, LEER COUNTY RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT, Sept. 2016 – R2
Most people lost virtually everything in the July 2016 fighting and currently have no assets. Extremely low purchaising power (i.e.: inability to affordfood, as well as soap)


OIL RESOURCES: (FSNMS R 19. R2)
No coping strategy-43.3 %
Stress Coping Strategy – 8.3%
Crisis CS - 24.4%
Emergency CS – 22%



Nile Basin (FSNMS, rd.19 – R2)
No coping strategy 32%
Stress Coping Strategy – 4.8%
Crisis CS - 51%
Emergency CS – 12.2%

CONCERN Mass MUACC screening – Leer County - Nov. 2016 – Sample size: 1,617
GAM – MUAC: 41.8%
SAM - MUAC 14.2%

CONCERN Mass MUACC screening – Leer County - Dec. 2016 – Sample size: 1,611
GAM – MUAC: 32.4%
SAM - MUAC 11.5%



MUAC Measurements – Nov. 2016 - TPA, Leer - Sample size: 275
(WHO, IOM, Concern - Leer Temporary Protection Area Report, Nov. 2016)
Proxy GAM by MUAC: 39% (male: 21%, female: 54%)
SAM: 17% (male: 9%, female: 17%). For Pregnant and lactating women:


48% of pregnant and lactating women screened were malnourished.
Malnutrition levels among the IDPs in the TPA are above emergency threshold.

Nile Hope, LEER COUNTY RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT, Sept. 2016 – R2
Sample: 516 children: SAM: 8.1% - MAM: 27.7% - GAM 35.9%



No mortality data since Feb. 2016
Contributing factors regarding health as well as levels of SAM have been looked at very carefully.

Nile Hope, LEER COUNTY RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT, Sept. 2016 – R2:
The MAM cases are particularly high and there are chances that in a matter of weeks they would all be confirmed SAM case who then become seriously at risk of death anytime unless rehabilitation services are rolled out expeditiously (services often unavailable because of security issues).


ACF SMART Survey - Feb 2016
CDR 3.16/10,000/day (2.44-4.08 CI) 56.6% of deaths due to violence/injury
U5DR 1.09/10,000/day (0.42-2.78 CI)
Reliability-1 - 62.1% of all villages were excluded due to insecurity

Office of the DHC mortality study - Nov/Dec 2015 - 1 year recall period
Adjusted CDR 2.24/10,000/day - 76% mean estimated mortality due to violence or drowning for whole survey area
Reliability-1 - methods questioned by SS TWG, survey timing is well in the past
Phase 4Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Current (Jan) (10%)

Feb-April(5%)

May-July (5%)
Current (Jan) (30%)

Feb-April(25%)

May-July (25%)
Current (Jan) (50%)

Feb-April(55%)

May-July (55%)
Current (Jan) (10%)

Feb-April(15%)

May-July (15%)
Phase 4NoPhase The security situation in Leer and in the area surrounding the TPA remains volatile and unpredictable, and whilst participants reported that military activity had subsided since October 2016, a threat remains from armed actors targeting villages and civilians for their food and money or with sexual violence. The violence in the last months has caused massive displacement, loss of assets and disruption of economic activities. Moreover, the disruption of life-saving humanitarian activities because of, among others, frequent looting episodes, impacted negatively on food consumption, assets ownership (people had to recur to extreme assets selling to survive) and malnutrition levels. A lot of humanitarian partners have abandoned the area, as compared to January 2016.
Accessibility to the displaced people in the islands remains difficult because of need to rely on canoes as the main source of transport.
Farms have been abandoned in most part of the County due to the current fighting.
No livestock remained after exhaustive looting and cattle raiding. Pasture is in abundance due to sufficient rainfall but there is no livestock grazing. Milk availability is very low, only very small quantities supplied from Nyal at a very high price. Fishing activities is ongoing but on a very small scale in the hiding places due to lack of fishing equipment and insecurity. Wild fruits/vegetable (water lily) are available as part of the coping strategy to sustain the communal livings.
Markets are generally not functioning. Only functioning markets, though with a very small level of supplies for oil, sugar and small quantities of cereals, are currently in the swampy island, mainly Touch Riak and Kok, reachable by local population living in other islands after a very long distance (1 - 2 days). Supplies arrive by river from Nyal, where prices are raising and transportation remains challenging. The transportation cost via canoes is also not sustainable as resources are scant.
The nutrition situation is alarming, and it has been so (even seeing a slight deterioration) since Sept. 2016, with GAM rates constantly above 30%. This situation is further compounded by the discontinuity of nutrition programmes due to insecurity, stock-outs and looting of supplies, combined with recent outbreaks of cholera. Access to clean water remains a major challenge, and hygiene conditions very poor, thus further impacting negatively on the utilization of food as well as on the nutrition status of the population. 90 cases of cholera reported as of 15 January 2017.
The presence of humanitarian actors in the area is limited given the difficulties related to physical access and insecurity.
The security situation will be very precarious, and the risk of active conflict is likely to increase as the environment conditions allow for human and machineries movements. This will force some people to migrate either to Mayendit, Panyijiar and Bentiu PoC, in search for food, as it has already been happening throughout the past months. Apart from relying on food assistance, the people who will remain in the swampy islands will mainly consume fish and other wild foods.
Generally, as per trend analysis (from 2010 onwards), the food security situation is expected to deteriorate during the projection period.
Very low access to any nutritious and diversified food due to the absence of food supplies. People mainly surviving on natural resources locally available, though, during this projected period, the availability of water lillies will be extremely reduced, though impacted negatively on consumption and diet diversity.
The overall planned assistance for the County adds up to a total of 3,132 Mt for the Jan – July 2017 period, for 100,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for about a week per month, as one month full ration will be provided only once in four months. This level of assistance may not be adequate to avoid a food security catastrophe for atleast 15% of the population.
River transport between Leer to Nyal will be limited because of the slowly drying up of the river. Some supplies will continue from Ganyel, but the prices are expected to be increasing, as seasonal trends indicate.
For the projected period, nutritional status is likely to remain compromised as people are exposed to limited food consumption, high levels of infection due to unsafe and insufficient water supply and inadequate sanitation.
The security situation will remain very precarious. Moreover, higher risk of conflict is foreseen in May-June.
No cereal stock will be available during the projected period, which corresponds to the lean season.
As the rains will start, access to this area will be even more challenging, including for humanitarians, posing challenges on the regular implementation of food security and nutrition programmes, as supported by trend analysis. However, larger quantities of fish and wild foods will be available, having a positive impact on diet diversity. The increased level of waters will facilitate movements by canoes, therefore allowing for small supply via river. However, the food prices will be at their seasonal peak because of low level of supplies, and transportation cost will be high.
The prevalence of malnutrition, which has seasonal variations, will be highest during the projected period, when the incidence of water-borne diseases and malaria increase because of the rain.
Provision of clean water and adequate hygiene will remain very poor, posing a major challenge on food utilization.
Mortality rates, particularly among young children, are likely to increase, as high incidence of diseases, compromised immune functions and acute malnutrition can be a deadly combination during the projected period.
The overall planned assistance for the County adds up to a total of 3,132 Mt for the Jan – July 2017 period, for 100,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for about a week per month, as one month full ration will be provided only once in four months. This level of assistance may not be adequate to avoid a food security catastrophe for at least 15% of the population in the county.


The feeling of the group is that the situation in Leer for the lean season (considering the low level of assistance) may justify a phase 5 given thatthree studies have already confirmed extremely high GAM proxy rates which could be used for classifiying the area as Phase 5, but no sufficient evidence on food consumption was available to justify such a strong stand. Recommendation: organize a rapid assessment mission to the county; re-contact ICRC to get further information.

11
*Nile River Fishing & Agro-Pastoral
SS08/SS09
Koch 140,056 52,612 Insecurity:
Clashes between the two/three warring parties extremely affected the population, causing people to lose their livelihood assets. Whole villages in Buaw were burnt down and animals looted.
- Sept. 2016: Aid workers are forced to relocate from Koch, Buaw, Jazeera and Nhialdu due to fighting and insecurity (OCHA, Factsheet, Jan. 2017, R3).
- October 2016: Instability has persisted across much of Unity State in October, with Leer County remaining the worst affected area, followed by Koch (REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).
- Nov. and Dec. 2016: Resurgence of violence. Pronounced fighting and attacks resulting in all assets and food stocks being completely destroyed. These clashes have continued to trigger displacement and have had a negative impact on humanitarian assistance outside formal displacement sites, as has impaired physical access due to poor road conditions and UXO risks (REACH, Situation Overview, Nov. 2016, R2).

Displacement:
Due to the recent fighting in Koch town, Buaw and Jaak payams in Nov and Dec 2016 about 10,100 people were displaced to Bentiu PoC from Leer and Koch mostly women, elderly and children. 84 per cent of new arrivals at Bentiu PoC reported lack of food as the reason for displacement while 18 percent cited insecurity. UNOCHA Jan, 2017 Fact Sheet (R3)

Shocks f
or Unity state: 55.1% reported that food was too expensive, 41.7% reported human sickness and 41.4% reported they experienced insecurity and violence (FSNMS R19, R2).
Looting and destruction of crops by armed groups. Obstructed humanitarian access. (REACH, Situation Overview, Nov. 2016, R2).
Alarmingly, 39% of assessed communities reported that deaths from hunger had occurred in the past three months. This is likely indicative of the negative impact of the ongoing crisis on the resilience of those populations that have been most affected by violence since July, as the overwhelming majority of communities reporting such deaths are located in Leer, Koch and Mayendit (REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).

Health issues:
Suspected cholera cases have been reported in Koch. However, confirmation of the cases has been challenging due to insecurity making it difficult to transport culture samples to the national laboratory for testing (OCHA, Factsheet, Jan. 2017, R3).
Production:
Crop (Cereal) production activities have been affected due to insecurity and resurgence of fighting in July 2016. All available stock was looted in July to December 2016 attacks.
Deficit production of 10,385 MT representing 87% gap in annual cereal needs (CFSAM 2016 Report, R3).
No access to agricultural inputs; most of the farming implements and tradesmen’s tools in the community have been looted.
(REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).

Livestock products:
Most of the animals were looted. Therefore, there is no or limited animal products for food consumption or sale. Fear from current insecurity has restricted the little available cattle in hiding places in the swamps. There is no meat nor milk available at HH level.
(R2 Recent joint rapid assessment mission)

Fishing & Wild foods:
Fishing activities is ongoing but on a very small scale due to insecurity. Most of the areas are accessible for fishing due to the flood water but this is limited due to both insecurity and limited fishing gears. Wild fruits (water lily and palm fruits) are available in small quantities as they are running out of stock in about a few weeks, considering the over-dependence of this population on them.
Foraging on wild foods has likely become more prevalent because the increased instability has impeded cultivation, forced many to flee to areas where foraging is the only viable source of food, and prevented humanitarians from accessing certain food insecure areas
(REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).
None of the assessed communities in Koch reported adequate access to food, confirming the pronounced impact of conflict on access to food. The most important reason for 88% of these communities was that it was too unsafe to access food by their preferred, usual method. The second most important reason was reportedly the destruction of crops (48% of assessed communities), in most cases likely due to flooding or attacks (REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).

Markets:
There are very few markets, only partially functioning. No cereals were available in any market in Koch County. Markets are completely non-functional in Koch town.

Humanitarian assistance
Since September 2016, there has been NO food assistance to this county (WFP Report, R3).

Oil Resources- Expenditure on Food:
33.3% of HHs reported spending more than 75% of incomes on food (FSNMS 19 - R2).

OIL RESOURCES (FSNMS R 19. R2)
*
FCS (FSNMS 19 - R2)
Acceptable 32.7%, Borderline 24.9%, Poor 42.4%
*
HHS (FSNMS 19 - R2)
None 27.3%, Slight 7.4%, Moderate 53.5%, Severe 11.7%,
*
HDDS (FSNMS 19 - R2)
No to low 64.4%, Medium 17%, High 18.6%
*
rCSI (FSNMS 19 - R2)
Low 74.3%, Medium18.8%, High 6.9%
*
Meal Frequency:1.50 for adults and 1.75


NILE BASIN
FCS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
Acceptable 32.7%, Borderline 23.9%, Poor 43.5%

Household Hunger Scale - HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
None 13%, Slight 3.7%, Moderate 77%, Severe 6.2%
,

Reduced CSI - rCSI (FSNMS 19) - No to low 72%, Medium 16.1%, High 11.8% - Reliability-2 - FSNMS valid to January 2017 and HHS is representative at livelihood zone level

HDDS: Low 49.7%, Medium 17.2%, High 33.1% - very significant deterioration of HDDS as compared to last IPC (even though lean season)
Looting and destruction of crops by armed groups (REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).

Most of the animals were looted
(R2 Recent joint rapid assessment mission)


OIL RESOURCES: (FSNMS R 19. R2)
No coping strategy-43.3 %
Stress Coping Strategy – 8.3%
Crisis CS - 24.4%
Emergency CS – 22%


Nile Basin (FSNMS, rd.19 – R2)
No coping strategy 32%
Stress Coping Strategy – 4.8%
Crisis CS - 51%
Emergency CS 12.2%

UNIDO SMART Survey - Mar 2016 - Mayendit North
GAM was 26.1% (2.1-30.5 95% CI) and SAM 4.6% (2.8- 7.5 95% CI) based on Weight-for-Height and the presence of bilateral oedema
GAM-MUAC was 9.9% (6.8-14.4 95% CI) while SAM 0.9% (0.3- 2.4 95% CI)
Reliability-2 - not representative of whole county

Samaritans Purse SMART Survey - 25th May 2016 - Mayendit South
GAM was 23.8%(20.3-27.5 CI) and SAM 5.8 (4.3-7.9 CI). General MUAC 13.6(10.4-17.6%) while SAM 2.1(1.3-3.3%) , not representative for whole county


Reliability-1 -
39% of assessed communities reported that deaths from hunger had occurred in the past three months.

UNIDO SMART Survey - Mar 2016 - Mayendit North
CDR 3.28/10,000/day (2.27-4.71 CI)
Of the deaths recorded during the recall period 59.1% were caused by injury/traumatic
U5DR 0.77/10,000/day (0.29-2.00 CI)
Reliability-2 - not representative of whole county


Samaritan Purse SMART survey - 25th May 2016:
CDR 1.08/10,000/day (0.79-1.48)
U5DR 0.644 (0.21-1.98)


Phase 4Current (Jan) (5%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Current (Jan) (15%)

Feb-April(10%)

May-July (10%)
Current (Jan) (30%)

Feb-April(30%)

May-July (30%)
Current (Jan) (40%)

Feb-April(45%)

May-July (45%)
Current (Jan) (10%)

Feb-April(15%)

May-July (15%)
Phase 4NOPhase 4


The security situation is very volatile. The violence in the last months has caused massive displacement, loss of assets and disruption of economic activities. Moreover, the disruption of life-saving humanitarian activities because of, among others, frequent looting episodes, impacted negatively on food consumption and assets ownership (people had to recur to extreme assets selling to survive). A lot of humanitarian partners have abandoned the area, as compared to January 2016. Since September 2016, there has been NO food assistance
Farms have been abandoned in most part of the County due to the current fighting.
Only very few livestock remained after looting and cattle raiding. Pasture is not very good, and livestock is starting migrating to toch. No availability of milk. Fishing activities is ongoing but on a very small scale in the hiding places due to insecurity. Lack of fishing equipment is also impacting negatively. Wild fruits/vegetable (water lily) are available as part of the coping strategy to sustain the communal livings, but are becoming scarce. People travel long distances to receive humanitarian assistance or to collect wild foods.
There are no functioning markets, given the isolated nature of the area. The road connection to Bentiu is very poor, and insecure. People have continued migrating to Bentiu PoC mostly because of lack of food. Access to clean water is very limited, impacting negatively on food utilization, hygiene and the nutrition status. Suspected cholera cases have been reported but couldn’t be confirmed due to insecurity making it difficult to transport culture samples to the national laboratory for testing. Communities have reported deaths from hunger in the August – Oct. 2016 period, indicating the negative impact of the ongoing crisis on the resilience of this population.
Though recent nutritional data are not available, the high malnutrition rates prevailing in Leer and Mayendit (especially North) can be considered a proxy for the situation in Koch, giving geographical proximity, but also very similar insecurity, livelihood disruption and displacement patterns.
The security situation will remain very precarious, and will force some more people to migrate either to Mayendit, Panyijiar and Bentiu PoC, in search for food. Apart from relying on food assistance, the people who will remain in the swampy areas will mainly consume fish and other wild foods, even though their availability will decrease considering the loweing of water levels. Limited access to water lilies during the projection period.Generally, as per trend analysis (from 2010 onwards), the food security situation is expected to deteriorate during the projection period.
The planned humanitarian assistance is around 1,000 Mt for the Jan - July 2017 period, for just over 20,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for just over a week per month. Considering the extremely vulnerable situation of the area, this level of assistance may not be adequate to avoid a food security catastrophe for at least 15 % of the population.
Markets are not expected to re-open and be functioning to pre-crisis level.

For the projected period, nutritional status is likely to remain compromised as people are exposed to limited food consumption, high levels of infection due to unsafe and insufficient water supply and inadequate sanitation.
The security situation will remain very precarious, and will cause intensified population movements to Mayendit, Panyijiar and Bentiu PoC, in search for food.
As the rains will start, access to this area will be even more challenging, including for humanitarians. High risk of floods in many areas, which will be completely cut-off.
However, fishing activities will increase though limited by lack of fishing gears. Wild foods will be available.
People will travel long distances to go and collect some food from relatives hosted in the PoCs.
A higher prevalence of water-borne disease is expected in this period.
The planned humanitarian assistance is around 1,000 Mt for the Jan - July 2017 period, for just over 20,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for just over a week per month. Considering the extremely vulnerable situation of the area, this level of assistance may not be adequate to avoid a food security catastrophe.The combination of intensified violence and low level of planned food assistance will cause intensified population movements to Mayendit, Panyijiar and Bentiu PoC, in search for food. Migration will be an extreme copying strategy applied by destitute households in search of survival. Considering the extremely vulnerable situation of the area, this level of assistance may not be adequate to avoid a food security catastrophe for at least 15 % of the population.
Provision of clean water and adequate hygiene will remain very poor, posing a major challenge on food utilization, while open air defecation remain common. There will be an increasing threat of infectious disease outbreaks, especially water borne disease, given crowded conditions and the onset of the rainy season. Given the intimate link between disease and malnutrition, the heightened risk of diarrhoeal disease and cholera may have a very severe impact on the nutritional status of the most vulnerable, particularly children under five, which is likely to remain dire. The prevalence of malnutrition, which has seasonal variations, will be highest during the projected period, as shown by the trend analysis.
Mortality rates, particularly among young children, are likely to increase, as high incidence of diseases, compromised immune functions and acute malnutrition can be a deadly combination during the projected period.


The feeling of the group is that the situation in Koch for the lean season (considering the low level of assistance) may justify a phase 5, but no sufficient evidence to justify such a strong stand. Recommendation: organize a rapid assessment mission to the county; get further information from any partners on the ground.
12
Oil Resouces
SS09
Mayendit 83,340 64,612 Displacement: Due to the recent fighting and destitution due to lack of food in Leer, Rubkuay and Dablual in Nov and Dec 2016 many people are displaced Mayendit South.
SS Fact Sheet for Unity-REACH. Nov 2016. R2
Estimated number of arrival is 7,000 (served by Nov GFD) but NFI cluster registered 15000 IDPs by end of November. Most arrivals are women and children. Some of them are integrated in the host communities. About 50% of the population are displaced in the swamps, POcs or Mayendit town as IDPs.
Based on Expert Information from FSL Cluster Partners based in Mayendit. Samaritan's Purse.


Insecurity:
Instability has persisted across much of Unity State in October, with Leer County remaining the worst affected area, followed by Koch and Mayendit.
Clashes between the two/three warring parties has extremely affected the population causing people to lose their livelihood assets. Whole villages in Dablual were burnt down and animals were looted. All assets and food stocks were completely destroyed in Nov and Dec 2016 attacks.

Human Disease outbreak: Cholera outbreak 86 suspected cases and 3 death between October - December 2016 in UNIDO clinic (south Mayendit)

Livestock diesease outbreak: 800 cows died from outbreak of disease (mixed infections of Hemorrhagic Septicemia (HS), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), Trypanasomiasis and liver flukes infestation) between October - Mid December. (VSF Suisse, Dec 2016, R2)

Price shock: There is no food supply to market due to impassable road from flooding and insecurity. Occassionally, few sorghum are avaialable and monthly market survey showed price has doubled copared to August/september 2016. (SP monthly market survey)

Flooding: Resulted in complete crop loss in South Mayendit and Dablual. SP Expert Information. R1

Shocks for Unity state: 55.1% reported that food was too expensive, 41.7% reported human sickness and 41.4% reported they experienced insecurity and violence (FSNMS R19, R2).
Alarmingly, 39% of assessed communities reported that deaths from hunger had occurred in the past three months. This is likely indicative of the negative impact of the ongoing crisis on the resilience of those populations that have been most affected by violence since July, as the overwhelming majority of communities reporting such deaths are located in Leer, Koch and Mayendit (REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).

The ongoing violence has reportedly resulted in the total depopulation of large numbers of villages. Communities in Leer and Mayendit reported that the majority of the remaining host community in their village was currently residing outside their homes,
(REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2).


Reliability - 2 - information from recent visit and reports from partners living in Mayendit.
Production: Crop (Cereal) production activities have been affected due to insecurity, over 50% of farmers are estimated to have relocated due to insecurity incidences from Dablual and Thaker in late 2016. The harvest was very little only 10% of annual food needs this year. All available stock was looted in November and December 16 attacks. Deficit production of 6,448MT representing 90% of annual cereal needs (CFSAM 2016 Report, R3)

Livestock products: Most of the animals were looted during the attack. Animal products are not available in the market in Mayendit town. Fear from current insecurity has restricted the little available cattle in hiding places in the swamps. There is no meat nor milk available at HH level. (R2 Recent Field mission)
No observable presence of a large number of cattle or shoats. This observation is consistent with responses from the FGD and KI interviews that all animals were looted during the several attacks that have occurred. Moreover, in Mayendit town, many carcasses of cattle littering the environment. There are no reports of livestock vaccination so animals are experiencing over disease overload (R2 Recent Field mission).


Livestock ownership:
Livestock ownership: 50.3%
(FSNMS Rd. 19, R2).


Fishing & Wild foods: Fishing activities is ongoing but on a very small scale. Most of the areas are accessible for fishing due to the flood water but this is limited due to both insecurity and limited fishing gears. Wild fruits (water lily and palm fruits) are available in small quantities as they are running out of stock in about a few weeks. As well, there is more pressure on these food sources from IDPs influx.
Thaker and Dablual was attacked in November and December. All houses were burnt down and all food lost and most of the animals were looted.

Humanitarian assistance: Last WFP assistance (half rations) in October for 19,943 households (about 99,702 people ) in Southern Mayendit. This excludes about 1,313 IDPs (7,036 people) that arrived within that month who were assisted in Nov. 100% was reached for residents in Oct and IDPs in Nov. R2 Information from WFP/SP.

Food stocks: 74% responded the food stocks were only sufficient for less than 1 month with none who had food stocks for more than 4 months in octber 2016. DCXXX SP Baseline Data Oct2016

None of the assessed communities in conflict-affected Mayendit reported adequate access to food (REACH, Situation Overview, Oct. 2016, R2). Most households reported having one to two meals a day, mainly composed water lily seeds/grains (yiel) and roots (kei), lalop seeds (thow) and seeds of palm tree seeds (thok). In Dablual, the population is also relying on local water tuber called yuan, which is being boiled and consumed.
Another important food source was fish, collected from rivers and swamps within their localities. Since swamps and rivers are starting receding as the dry season is approaching, there is a real risk that these households will have no access to these sources in the coming months
(R2 Recent Field mission).


Markets: Few markets are functioning in Mayendit, but at a very low level. Supplies are very scarce. No cereals were available in any market in Mayendit county. Sugar and salt prices were up by 300% from last year to this year. Tea prices increased 50% compared to last year. Fish is available in all markets but prices are SSP200 per line instead of SSP 100 last year due to lack of fishing gear and more pressure from IDPs influx. Markets in Mayendit South are supplied from Tayar in Panyijar County by canoes, and supplying takes two to three weeks.
The absence of cereals in all the local markets in Mayendit County was explained by the fact that there are no supplies in Tayar market either. The only possible source could be from Juba which would make the cereals too expensive for anyone to afford. In addition, traders are experiencing difficulties in supplying goods to these locations due insecurity and fear of looting.
Households generally have low purchasing power due to limited income sources.
(R2 Recent Field mission)

Food expenditure share: low-38.8%, medium-14.6%, high-13.3% and very high 33.3% (FSNMS 19, R3)


Oil Resource Livelihood Zone
*FCS (R2)
Acceptable 43%, Borderline 40%, Poor 16% (SP baseline Oct 2016)


FCS-FSNMS
Acceptable 32.7%, Borderline 24.9%, Poor 42.4% (FSNMS Round 19, Dec 2016, R2)

*HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
None 27.3%, Slight 7.4%, Moderate 53.5%, Severe11.7%,
*HDDS(FSNMS 19) (R2)
No to low 44.4%, Medium 17%, High 18.6%
*rCSI(FSNMS 19) (R2)
Low 74.3%, Medium 18.8%, High 6.9%
*
Meal Frequency: (R2)1.5 for adults and 1.75
There are no sustainable livelihoods nor income source. Most households declared relying on the collection and selling of firewood and charcoal in order to get some cash.
Some households reported that the men were spending some time at the fishing camps to fish which is either consumed by the household or, more rarely, sold as dry fish in local markets.
Most households reported that, before the crisis, they had access to a number of livelihoods and income sources, ranging from cultivation for self-consumption to sale of livestock which was lost during the recent conflict. Generally, the households that were interviewed stated that, before the crisis, they could rely, for food consumption, on own cattle and own produced food while are now depending on WFP for assistance
(R2 Recent Field mission).



FSNMS R19: (R3): Asset depletion:

No coping 45.3%, Stress 8.3%, Crisis 24.4%, Emergency 22%

FSNMS valid to December 2016 and representative at livelihood zone level (R2)

Samaritans Purse - Recent MUAC Mass Screening Jan 2017 - Mayendit South proxy
GAM is 23.2%, SAM of 3.6%, MAM of 19.6 %, Survey covered 4,250 of children U5 years of age. R2 - Representative at county level.
No informationPhase 4Current (Jan) (10%)

Feb-April(5%)

May-July (5%)
Current (Jan) (25%)

Feb-April(15%)

May-July (15%)
Current (Jan) (25%)

Feb-April(30%)

May-July (30%)
Current (Jan) (35%)

Feb-April(40%)

May-July (40%)
Current (Jan) (5%)

Feb-April(10%)

May-July (10%)
Phase 4


Phase 4

Phase 4
No


Yes

Yes
Phase 4


Phase4

Phase 4
The security situation is very volatile. The violence in the last months has caused massive displacement (Southern Mayendit receiving IDPs from Northern Mayendit and Leer), loss of assets and disruption of economic activities. Insecurity has also affected humanitarian context and operations, especially in Northern Mayendit.
Despite the area being agro-pastoralist, there is no observable presence of a large number of cattle or shoats: a very large share of livestock was looted during the several attacks that have occurred. Moreover, many carcasses of cattle as a result of animal disease and lack of livestock vaccination are littering the environment.
Crop production has been very problematic due to constant fear of attacks. The little that was cultivated close to the homesteads was destroyed by extensive flooding which occurred in late 2016. Moreover, the communities, when attacked, went into hiding in the swamps and remained there for several weeks, therefore most of them couldn’t cultivate as they were living in floating homes. Most households were unable to harvest for cereals.
Most households have no sustainable livelihoods (though some are engaged in fishing, though at a limited level because of lack of fishing equipment) nor income source, and they are relying on the collection and selling of firewood and charcoal in order to get some cash. Livelihoods have been negatively affected by the ongoing crisis: most households, before the crisis, had access to a number of livelihoods and income sources, ranging from cultivation for self-consumption to sale of livestock which was lost during the recent conflict. Even sources of food have changed substantially: before the crisis, most households could rely, for food consumption, on own cattle and animal products, and own produced cereals while they are now depending on assistance and wild foods.
Markets are functioning to a limited extend, with extremely limited supply because of impassable roads from insecurity as well as flooding: the traditional main commercial routes from Bentiu and Mayom are currently blocked, a bridge connecting Mayendit to Rumbek, a main market, has collapsed. As a result, no cereal in the local market. Other products (biscuits, sugar, and oil) are sold in very small quantities, and prices are very high (price of sugar: +400% as compared to last year).
The prevalence of malnutrition is high, far above the WHO emergency threshold. Nutrition response activities has been suspended (especially in the northern part of the county) due to insecurity and road access situation.
People are relying on displacement as a coping mechanism in desperate search for food.
The humanitarian assistance has been hampered by the insecurity: the population in Southern Mayendit has been assisted in November 2016 for the last time, while this of Northern Mayendit in October 2016.
The security situation will remain very precarious, and the risk of active conflict is likely to increase as the environment conditions allow for increased military offensive. This will force some people to migrate either to Panyijiar or to Bentiu PoC, in search for food, as it has already been happening throughout the past months.
No food stocks from own production as the little current harvest will be exhausted by mid-February.
Large displacements to remain in Mayendit HQ.
Generally, as per trend analysis (from 2010 onwards), the food security situation is expected to deteriorate during the projection period.
Very low access to any nutritious and diversified food due to the absence of food supplies. People mainly surviving on locally available natural resources, though, during this projected period, the availability of water lilies will be extremely reduced. This will negatively impact consumption and diet diversity.
Access to animal products (milk, meat) will be disrupted as a result of a reduced number of livestock (diseases), cattle raiding and cattle moving out farther afield within the county in search of better pastures.
High and volatile food prices likely to continue with a negative impact for those who depend on markets.
Humanitarian assistance to remain constrained because of insecurity: the overall planned assistance for the County adds up to a total of 2,917 Mt for the Jan – July 2017 period, for 68,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for about a week per month. This level of assistance may not be adequate to avoid a food security catastrophe for an estimated 10% of the total population (the most vulnerable).
For the projected period, nutritional status is likely to remain compromised as people are exposed to limited food consumption, high levels of infection due to unsafe and insufficient water supply and inadequate sanitation.
As this time corresponds with the peak of lean season, cereals stocks will be completely exhausted.
At this time, cereal supplies on the market will be very limited, and prices are expected to be at their seasonal highest, as per seasonal trends and 5-year trends.
Displacement will remain from insecurity and lack of adequate food.
The prevalence of malnutrition, which has seasonal variations, will be highest during the projected period, when the incidence of water-borne diseases and malaria increase because of the rain.
Provision of clean water and adequate hygiene will remain very poor, posing a major challenge on food utilization.
Mortality rates, particularly among young children, are likely to increase, as high incidence of diseases, compromised immune functions and acute malnutrition can be a deadly combination during the projected period.
The planned humanitarian assistance is of 2,917 Mt for the Jan – July 2017 period, for 68,000 beneficiaries. Given the logistic constraints and prevailing insecurity in the area, the most likely scenario (70% of plan) is that the assistance would cover food needs for about a week per month. This level of assistance will unlikely be adequate to avoid a food security catastrophe for an estimated 10% of the total population (the most vulnerable).
13
*Nile River Fishing & Agro-Pasture

SS08
Guit 49,431 5,116 Displacement: No new displacement. 7,356 IDPs are still in the county. Niemni; 1,744 & Kuach hosting 5,612 (WFP weekly updates R3)

Insecurity: Relatively more stable security situation contributed to increase access and availability of food.

Shocks for Unity state: 55.1% reported that food was too expensive, 41.7% reported human sickness and 41.4% reported they experienced insecurity and violence. (DCXXX FSNMS R19, R2)
Production: Crop (Cereal) production activities have been affected by uneven distribution of rainfall the last season The harvest was very limited with only 6% of annual food needs for the year. Deficit production of 13917MT representing 94% gap in annual cereal needs (CFSAM 2016 Report, R3)

Livestock products:
Livestock situation is good this time. Fear from unpredictable security situation is restricting movement pattern of livestock to far grazing areas. Pasture is very limited during this period

Fishing & Wild foods:
Fishing activities is ongoing but limited due to lack of fishing gears. Wild fruits/vegetable (water lily) are available as part of the coping strategy to reserve seeds for the next season.
Markets: The market in Guit is not functional. Able households commute for a whole day to Bentiu market. However, access to markets is from Bentui supplies are limted due to to insecurity- inacessibility. Prices are very high due to inflation, re-stocking of food is low due to disruption of market routes as a result insecurity. Compared to same time last year, the prices of a 50kg bag sorghum has increased by 300% (2800SSP from 900SSP) in 2015.

Food Aid: Planned WFP distribution for Oct 2016 targets was 3838 bens and in Jan 2017, 7,356 ( Niemni;1744 & Kuach; 5612) beneficiaries with assorted food commodities of 82.364 MT (19.664mt-Niemni & 62.700mt-Kuach)
*FCS (FSNMS 19) (R 2) Acceptable 52.7%, Borderline 27.6%, Poor 19.7%

*HHS (FSNMS 19) (R2)
None 13.3%, Slight 3.6%, Moderate 76.8%, Severe 6.2%

*rCSI (FSNMS 19) R2 - No to low 12.1%, Medium 17%, High 70.9%
FSNMS 19:
No coping, 48.8%, Stress 12.9%, Crisis 19.3% and Emergency 19% (R2)
NANAPhase 3!Current (Jan) (10%)

Feb-April(10%)

May-July (10%)
Current (Jan) (30%)

Feb-April(25%)

May-July (20%)
Current (Jan) (40%)

Feb-April(40%)

May-July (40%)
Current (Jan) (20%)

Feb-April(25%)

May-July (30%)
Current (Jan) (0%)

Feb-April(0%)

May-July (0%)
Phase 4


Phase 4

Phase 4
Yes


Yes

Yes
Phase 3!


phase 4

Phase 4
Insecurity is affecting people's movement. No IDP movements towards this County, while some people are travelling from Guitt to Rubkona county to visit relatives and to seek some humanitarian assistance).
It is specially affecting households that depends on market for food source from Bentiu, PoC and Rubkona market. As well, high market prices and unsustainable income source limiting accesses to food from the market. There is no new wave of displacement, but it is estimated that 7,000 people returned from the POC to their homes in Guitt County. These people were provided with livelihood kits and food assistance.
There is 94% annual crop need deficit from 2016 production.
Very few livestock is remaining, as most of it has been raided during the conflict. This strongly limits the availability of milk. Fish is available but fishing limited because of lack of fishing equipment, as what was previously distributed got looted when houses were burnt.
Humanitarian assistance has been quite limited since June 2016, because of logistical constraints. On average, from Sept. to Dec. 2016, an average of 4,000 beneficiaries have been assisted (45 Mt per month, on average), way below the needs expressed by the last IPC cycle (25,000 people in phase 3 and above).
Presence of armed groups disrupting livelihoods is likely to continue. This scenario will therefore be a major challenge to availability and accessing of food in the projection period.
Very limited humanitarian assistance is planned throughout the analysis period: an average of around 6,000 beneficiaries per months. Even if the plan is fully implemented, an enormous cereal gap of 2,025 Mt stands (70% of total cereal needs). Moreover, this is far below the projected needs expressed by last IPC cycle.
Since the local population relies on the Bentiu market, access to food will be limited by very high food prices (inflation and the fact that most of the goods on the markets are imported using hard currency) – see excel table for Bentiu market. This would have a particularly negative impact considering the high dependence on markets of this population, given their low agricultural production and low humanitarian assistance. Some of the local population will move to the Bentiu PoC looking for humanitarian assistance.
The availability of animal products (milk, meat) will further decrease as the few remaining animals will start migrating to Toch.
Fishing activities will be very limited as the water will be drying out. Availability of wild foods, which compliments the diet, is low in this period.
This projection analysis is supported by trend analysis of nutrition data, which show a GAM rate of 20.9 in April 2016.
Presence of armed groups disrupting livelihoods is likely to continue. This scenario will therefore be a major challenge to availability and accessing of food in the projection period, as well as for humanitarian interventions. No influx of IDPs is expected.
As this time corresponds to the peak of lean season, cereals stocks will be completely exhausted. This population is accessing market in Bentiu, as no market is functioning in Guitt. At this time, cereal supplies on the market will be very limited, and prices are expected to be at their seasonal highest, as per seasonal trends and 5-yrs analysis (see excel table). This would have a particularly negative impact considering the high dependence on markets of this population, given their low agricultural production and low humanitarian assistance.
Thanks to the starting of the rainy season, availability of fish will increase, even in the swamps, though the lack of fishing gear will be limiting the overall fishing. Wild foods will become available and will be used to compliment the diet. The few animals owned by the local population (much lower as compared to the pre-crisis period) will start returning from toch, and the availability of milk will slightly improve.
Very limited humanitarian assistance is planned throughout the analysis period: an average of around 6,000 beneficiaries per months. Even if the plan is fully implemented, an enormous cereal gap of 2,025 Mt stands (70% of total cereal needs). Moreover, this is far below the projected needs expressed by last IPC cycle.
Some of the local population will move to the Bentiu PoC looking for humanitarian assistance.
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September 2014 Current
Oct-Dec 2014
Oct-Dec 2015 (2)
Unity State Analysis
Popln distribution
CFSAM 2016-2017
Bentiu Mkt
Food Sec Indicators Trends
CFSAM trends