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Introduction to the State and National True Vote Model
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7/29/2017
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In this Introduction to the True Vote Model, we will examine the 2004 and 2008 elections.
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We will try several calculation methods, change voter turnout assumptions, target exit polls and view output tables and graphs.
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MAIN data sheet: Enter data and assumptions.
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You can change default inputs for voter turnout and Democratic shares of returning and new voters.
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View Summary output, sensitivity analysis, vote share trends and graph.
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Table 1a displays the state or national True vote shares based on the calculation method (1-4)
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Table 1b displays the corresponding recorded vote shares (default).
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To display the unadjusted exit poll in Table 1b, enter code 1 in cell c26.
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To display a Target Democratic Vote share in Table 1b, enter the share in cell c27.
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Sensitivity Analysis (Table 3) - 3 pairs of 5x5 scenario combinations of vote shares, margins and popular vote win probabilties.
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The scenarios are run over a range of Democratic shares of 1) new (DNV), 2) returning Democratic and returning Republican voters.
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The base case scenario is displayed in the central cell of each matrix.
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NATIONAL 2008
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Election: 2008
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State or (Na)tional: NA
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Note: Calculation Method 4: assumes the 2004 True Vote
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OBAMA HAD A 58% TRUE VOTE SHARE. HE WON BY 23 MILLION VOTES vs. the RECORDED 52.9% (9.5 MILLION).
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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In the worst case scenario (lower left cell), Obama has a 56.7% share and wins by 19.5 million votes.
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The 2008 True Vote is confirmed By the 2008 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate.
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View the multiple, independent calculations which confirm that Obama had a 58% share.
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NATIONAL 2004
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Enter 2004, NA for National and 4 for the Calculation method (2000 True Vote)
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Kerry had a 53.7% True Vote share.
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KERRY WON BY NEARLY 10 MILLION VOTES. HE LOST THE RECORDED VOTE BY 3 MILLION.
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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KERRY WINS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO BY 7 MILLION VOTES.
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Enter 1 in the Target Exit Poll input cell (C26).
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KERRY HAD A 52.0% WEIGHTED AVERAGE SHARE
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FLORIDA
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Calculation Method 4: returning 2000 voters are based on the 2000 True Vote - not the recorded vote (Method 1).
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BASE CASE:
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Kerry had a 52.14% True Vote share and wins by 376,000 votes vs.the recorded 47.09%.
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View Kerry and Bush vote shares of returning Gore, Bush, Other (3rd party) and New (DNV) voters.
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1988-2008 TREND GRAPH
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Recorded, exit poll and national vote
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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View the effects of incremental changes in Kerry's share of new and and returning Bush voters.
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Worst case (lower left cell). Kerry has 50.4% and wins by 125,000 votes.
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OHIO
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Enter OH. Type 1 in cell C26 TO TARGET THE OH 2004 UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL.
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Kerry had a 54% True Vote share and a 466,000 vote margin. Confirmed by the unadjusted Ohio exit poll
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Sensitivity Analysis:
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Worst case scenario. Kerry has 52.5% and wins by 299,000 votes.
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NEW YORK
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Enter NY. Set calculation code = 3 (2000 NY EXIT POLL is used for calculating returning voters).
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Kerry had 65.9% and a 2.6 million vote margin.
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Sensitivity Analysis:
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Worst case scenario. Kerry has 64.4% and wins by 2.4 million votes.
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FRAUD REDUCED KERRY'S NY MARGIN BY 1.3 MILLION VOTES.
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WORKSHEETS (note: MAIN and SCRATCHPAD can be edited)
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Main - summary tables