Fellow Traveller Forecasting Template external

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC
1	Forecasting model where Steam is the primary platform
2	© 2021 Surprise Attack Pty Ltd TA Fellow Traveller Games
3	http://fellowtraveller.games
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11	only input into	gold cells				SCENARIOS
12	the different performance scenarios will auto update as you adjust the current assumptions					NET REVENUE BASED ON RATIO OF 1st 30 DAYS OF SALES TO WISHLISTS AT LAUNCH
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14					wishlist ratio	20%	5%	10%	20%	33%	50%	66%	90%
15					1 year	$68,337	$17,084	$34,168	$68,337	$112,755	$170,841	$225,511	$307,514
16	Wishlists at launch	20,000			2 year	$108,847	$27,212	$54,424	$108,847	$179,598	$272,119	$359,196	$489,813
17	Sales : wishlists ratio (first 30 days)	20%			3 year	$137,205	$34,301	$68,603	$137,205	$226,388	$343,013	$452,777	$617,423
18	Month 1 Steam units	4,000	first 30 days not calendar		4 year	$157,055	$39,264	$78,528	$157,055	$259,141	$392,638	$518,283	$706,749
19	USD price	14.99			5 year	$170,951	$42,738	$85,475	$170,951	$282,068	$427,376	$564,137	$769,278
20	Launch discount	10%
21	% month 1 units at discount	70%	how many sales will be in the launch discount period vs the full month. basically week one as a % of month 1
22	Global price vs USD price	80%	factoring in sales in lower price point markets like china etc. increase this % if you are expecting not to sell in those markets. decrease it if you expect to do really well in these markets e.g. if you are localised and promoting in them
23	Avg price per unit on launch discount	$10.79
24	Avg price not discounted	$11.99
25	Steam first 30 days gross	$44,610
26	Chargebacks, tax, refunds	$7,138	16%	allowance for returns, and taxes. varies between ~12% - 20%. increase if you expect a lot of returns (>6%) or a lot of sales in markets with high sales tax e.g. Europe. Decrease if you expect or are seeing lower returns or for the US to be more than 50% of your sales
27	Steam cut	$11,242	30%
28	Steam first 30 days net	$26,231	what you get paid
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30	PROMOTIONAL BOOSTS			January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
31	regular day to day revenue rate vs month 1. Games that perform strongly will have a higher baseline % but it still tends to stay fairly stable month to month, only tailing off slowly. The default numbers in here are for a game that performs moderately well.	Baseline ratio to month 1			15.0%	7.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%
32	boost from discounts. you will need to adjust these based on the timing of your launch for the season sales, and how frequently you plan to run discounts	Regular discounts (week longs)				8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%		8.0%
33		Seasonal sales (summer sale etc)			5.0%				10.0%	10.0%				7.5%	15.0%	5.0%	5.0%				10.0%	10.0%				7.5%	15.0%
34		Special sales (daily deals etc)	15%-25%
35			Total ratio to month 1		20.0%	15.5%	4.5%	12.5%	14.5%	22.5%	4.5%	12.5%	4.5%	20.0%	19.5%	17.0%	9.0%	12.0%	4.0%	12.0%	14.0%	22.0%	4.0%	12.0%	4.0%	19.5%	19.0%
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37	adjust these to actual launch date and then 2 years on			January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December	2 Year total
38	once you have actuals, update the month 1 numbers and the future months will flow from them			Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
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40	PC		ratio to steam
41		Steam	100%	26,231	5,246	4,066	1,180	3,279	3,803	5,902	1,180	3,279	1,180	5,246	5,115	4,459	2,361	3,148	1,049	3,148	3,672	5,771	1,049	3,148	1,049	5,115	4,984	104,661
42		Soundtrack	4%	1,049	210	163	47	131	152	236	47	131	47	210	205	178	94	126	42	126	147	231	42	126	42	205	199	4,186
43		Other PC	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
44		Other PC	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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46	Consoles. Adjust % based on whether you are shipping on these platforms and what the relative sales will be to Steam. This will vary significantly per game based on the style of game and suitability to the platform so it is best to get some data from similar games if you are able to	Switch	ratio to steam	Promo boost	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	3.0%
47		Switch	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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49		Xbox	ratio to steam	Promo boost
50		Xbox	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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52		Sony	ratio to steam	Promo boost
53		Sony	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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55	Deals	enter manually																										0
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58		Monthly - All platforms		27,280	5,456	4,228	1,228	3,410	3,956	6,138	1,228	3,410	1,228	5,456	5,320	4,638	2,455	3,274	1,091	3,274	3,819	6,002	1,091	3,274	1,091	5,320	5,183	108,847
59		Cumulative		27,280	32,736	36,964	38,192	41,602	45,558	51,696	52,923	56,333	57,561	63,017	68,337	72,974	75,429	78,703	79,794	83,068	86,887	92,889	93,980	97,253	98,345	103,664	108,847
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