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Definitions
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AGI: An artificial system that can do most or all economically and politically useful tasks that a human can do.
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ASI: An artificial system that significantly exceeds the ability of humans at most or all economically and politically useful tasks
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Intelligence explosion: A situation where the total cumulative intelligence of the world dramatically increases over a short time period -- let's say for the sake of concreteness, at least 100x growth in cumulative intelligence, happening in a span of <10 years.
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Soroush's timelines (as of June 18, 2023)
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10% chance50% chance90% chance
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AGI
Year: 2043

Bioanchors estimates are too high. We can train off mostly existing & synthetic data. We can use existing hardware with incremental innovations only. By 2033, we reach parity in cognitive (non-physical) tasks, though at high cost per hour. Next 10 years accounts for reaching parity on physical & other remaining tasks.
Year: 2068

Bioanchors estimates are correct, we need better hardware, which we reach in ~25 years. Then 10 years to do sequential RL & other data gathering. Then 10 years for reaching parity on physical & other remaining tasks.
Year: 2068

Bioanchors estimates are correct, we need better hardware, which we reach in ~25 years. Then 10 years to do sequential RL & other data gathering. Then 10 years for reaching parity on physical & other remaining tasks.
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ASI
Year: 2053

If AGI is tractable, than ASI by this definition feels tractable, and shouldn't be much harder -- estimate 10-30 years after AGI, picking longer additional timeline if further in future implying that the problem of general intelligence is likely a harder one.
Year: 2088
Year: 2180
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Intelligence explosion
Year: 2063

Pathway to feasibility seems to be when we get to ASI & there are not strong limits to its further growth. High likelihood conditional on ASI. Expect it to happen roughly within 10 year window after ASI.
Year: 2098
Year: (never)

There is a possibility that intelligence explosions are just not possible, which for me is ~10% or greater, therefore implying no timeline where I see >=90% chance.
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