Zvi Blind Vs Manifold

	A	B	C	D	E	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB
1	Question	Resolution (1=YES, 0=NO)	Manifold (as indicated in Zvi's post)	Zvi Blind	Zvi Blind Adjusted as described in criteria	Mixtures (1 = 100% zvi)

2						1	0.95	0.9	0.85	0.8	0.75	0.7	0.65	0.6	0.55	0.5	0.45	0.4	0.35	0.3	0.25	0.2	0.15	0.1	0.05	0.01	0
3	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	0	0.34	0.8	0.54	0.54	0.53	0.52	0.51	0.5	0.49	0.48	0.47	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.43	0.42	0.41	0.4	0.39	0.38	0.37	0.36	0.35	0.342	0.34
4	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	1	0.32	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.206	0.212	0.218	0.224	0.23	0.236	0.242	0.248	0.254	0.26	0.266	0.272	0.278	0.284	0.29	0.296	0.302	0.308	0.314	0.3188	0.32
5	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	1	0.78	0.72	0.72	0.72	0.723	0.726	0.729	0.732	0.735	0.738	0.741	0.744	0.747	0.75	0.753	0.756	0.759	0.762	0.765	0.768	0.771	0.774	0.777	0.7794	0.78
6	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	1	0.46	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.3555	0.361	0.3665	0.372	0.3775	0.383	0.3885	0.394	0.3995	0.405	0.4105	0.416	0.4215	0.427	0.4325	0.438	0.4435	0.449	0.4545	0.4589	0.46
7	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	0	0.27	0.5	0.47	0.47	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.43	0.42	0.41	0.4	0.39	0.38	0.37	0.36	0.35	0.34	0.33	0.32	0.31	0.3	0.29	0.28	0.272	0.27
8	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	0	0.35	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3025	0.305	0.3075	0.31	0.3125	0.315	0.3175	0.32	0.3225	0.325	0.3275	0.33	0.3325	0.335	0.3375	0.34	0.3425	0.345	0.3475	0.3495	0.35
9	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	0	0.45	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.64	0.63	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.59	0.58	0.57	0.56	0.55	0.54	0.53	0.52	0.51	0.5	0.49	0.48	0.47	0.46	0.452	0.45
10	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	0	0.11	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1005	0.101	0.1015	0.102	0.1025	0.103	0.1035	0.104	0.1045	0.105	0.1055	0.106	0.1065	0.107	0.1075	0.108	0.1085	0.109	0.1095	0.1099	0.11
11	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	0	0.17	0.85	0.37	0.37	0.36	0.35	0.34	0.33	0.32	0.31	0.3	0.29	0.28	0.27	0.26	0.25	0.24	0.23	0.22	0.21	0.2	0.19	0.18	0.172	0.17
12	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	1	0.72	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.701	0.702	0.703	0.704	0.705	0.706	0.707	0.708	0.709	0.71	0.711	0.712	0.713	0.714	0.715	0.716	0.717	0.718	0.719	0.7198	0.72
13	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	0	0.19	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.152	0.154	0.156	0.158	0.16	0.162	0.164	0.166	0.168	0.17	0.172	0.174	0.176	0.178	0.18	0.182	0.184	0.186	0.188	0.1896	0.19
14	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	1	0.16	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.1505	0.151	0.1515	0.152	0.1525	0.153	0.1535	0.154	0.1545	0.155	0.1555	0.156	0.1565	0.157	0.1575	0.158	0.1585	0.159	0.1595	0.1599	0.16
15	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	1	0.28	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.299	0.298	0.297	0.296	0.295	0.294	0.293	0.292	0.291	0.29	0.289	0.288	0.287	0.286	0.285	0.284	0.283	0.282	0.281	0.2802	0.28
16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	1	0.53	0.25	0.33	0.33	0.34	0.35	0.36	0.37	0.38	0.39	0.4	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.44	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.48	0.49	0.5	0.51	0.52	0.528	0.53
17	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAIs Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	0	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
18	Will an AI win a (highest division) coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	0	0.16	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.103	0.106	0.109	0.112	0.115	0.118	0.121	0.124	0.127	0.13	0.133	0.136	0.139	0.142	0.145	0.148	0.151	0.154	0.157	0.1594	0.16
19	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	0	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
20	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	0	0.22	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.106	0.112	0.118	0.124	0.13	0.136	0.142	0.148	0.154	0.16	0.166	0.172	0.178	0.184	0.19	0.196	0.202	0.208	0.214	0.2188	0.22
21	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	1	0.56	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.503	0.506	0.509	0.512	0.515	0.518	0.521	0.524	0.527	0.53	0.533	0.536	0.539	0.542	0.545	0.548	0.551	0.554	0.557	0.5594	0.56
22	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	1	0.81	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8005	0.801	0.8015	0.802	0.8025	0.803	0.8035	0.804	0.8045	0.805	0.8055	0.806	0.8065	0.807	0.8075	0.808	0.8085	0.809	0.8095	0.8099	0.81
23	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	0	0.81	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.753	0.756	0.759	0.762	0.765	0.768	0.771	0.774	0.777	0.78	0.783	0.786	0.789	0.792	0.795	0.798	0.801	0.804	0.807	0.8094	0.81
24	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	1	0.67	0.44	0.47	0.47	0.48	0.49	0.5	0.51	0.52	0.53	0.54	0.55	0.56	0.57	0.58	0.59	0.6	0.61	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.65	0.66	0.668	0.67
25	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	0	0.15	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1975	0.195	0.1925	0.19	0.1875	0.185	0.1825	0.18	0.1775	0.175	0.1725	0.17	0.1675	0.165	0.1625	0.16	0.1575	0.155	0.1525	0.1505	0.15
26	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	0	0.26	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.1555	0.161	0.1665	0.172	0.1775	0.183	0.1885	0.194	0.1995	0.205	0.2105	0.216	0.2215	0.227	0.2325	0.238	0.2435	0.249	0.2545	0.2589	0.26
27	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	0	0.45	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.4975	0.495	0.4925	0.49	0.4875	0.485	0.4825	0.48	0.4775	0.475	0.4725	0.47	0.4675	0.465	0.4625	0.46	0.4575	0.455	0.4525	0.4505	0.45
28	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	0	0.59	0.85	0.79	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.74	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.7	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.64	0.63	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.592	0.59
29	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	0	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.0505	0.051	0.0515	0.052	0.0525	0.053	0.0535	0.054	0.0545	0.055	0.0555	0.056	0.0565	0.057	0.0575	0.058	0.0585	0.059	0.0595	0.0599	0.06
30	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	1	0.65	0.4	0.45	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.48	0.49	0.5	0.51	0.52	0.53	0.54	0.55	0.56	0.57	0.58	0.59	0.6	0.61	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.648	0.65
31	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	0	0.26	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.3455	0.341	0.3365	0.332	0.3275	0.323	0.3185	0.314	0.3095	0.305	0.3005	0.296	0.2915	0.287	0.2825	0.278	0.2735	0.269	0.2645	0.2609	0.26
32	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	0	0.31	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2055	0.211	0.2165	0.222	0.2275	0.233	0.2385	0.244	0.2495	0.255	0.2605	0.266	0.2715	0.277	0.2825	0.288	0.2935	0.299	0.3045	0.3089	0.31
33	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	0	0.07	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.0225	0.025	0.0275	0.03	0.0325	0.035	0.0375	0.04	0.0425	0.045	0.0475	0.05	0.0525	0.055	0.0575	0.06	0.0625	0.065	0.0675	0.0695	0.07
34	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	1	0.35	0.6	0.55	0.55	0.54	0.53	0.52	0.51	0.5	0.49	0.48	0.47	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.43	0.42	0.41	0.4	0.39	0.38	0.37	0.36	0.352	0.35
35	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?	0	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15
36	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	0	0.015	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.04825	0.0465	0.04475	0.043	0.04125	0.0395	0.03775	0.036	0.03425	0.0325	0.03075	0.029	0.02725	0.0255	0.02375	0.022	0.02025	0.0185	0.01675	0.01535	0.015
37	US presidency (YES = republican)	1	0.16	0.4	0.36	0.36	0.35	0.34	0.33	0.32	0.31	0.3	0.29	0.28	0.27	0.26	0.25	0.24	0.23	0.22	0.21	0.2	0.19	0.18	0.17	0.162	0.16
38
39		Notes
40		In the interest of clearly demonstrating that the resolution should be 0%, i'm generously interpreting some ambiguities in Zvi's favor:
41		Zvi didn't answer the LLMs legislation one, so i'm not including it
42		Zvi didn't say what prob manifold had before he bet on the Supreme court composition changing, so I am using the worst number manifold had over a few days before the post
43		Zvi didn't say what prob manifold had before he bet on the POTUS election, so I am using the worst number manifold had over a few days before the post
44
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46		market link: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/zvi-blind-vs-manifold-2024-acx-pred
47		post link: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/2024-acx-predictions-blindbuysellhold
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