ABCDEFGHIKLMOPQRS
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AngolaBurkina FasoCameroonChadCongo Democratic RepublicCote d'IvoireGuineaKenyaMaliMozambiqueNigerSenegalSierra LeoneTanzaniaTogoUganda
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Approach to counterfactual
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GiveWell supported?NeverYes, since 2018Yes, since 2021Yes - since 2022Yes, since 2021Yes, since 2018Yes - since 2018Yes - since 2019Yes - since 2018NeverYes - since 2019NeverNeverNeverNeverNever
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Description of counterfactual partner supportAs it is now - up to one integrated campaign per year, plus routine delivery at six and nine monthsIN HKI areas: gov't supports rural biannual outreach (but with less supervision/ training), urban areas have limited support for routineIn HKI areas, limited support for routineLimited support for routineIn HKI areas, limited support for routineIn HKI areas, limited support for routinizationIn HKI areas, limited support for routinizationMix of routine services and less effective/no Malezi Bora (catch-up campaign) activitiesIn HKI areas, limited support for routinizationAs it is now - likely only routine, but evidence of some integration with vaccination campaign in 2023Limited support for routinizationAs it is now - likely only routine at health facilities and outreachSimilar to now, likely only routine at health facilities and outreach and without NI-funded catch up campaigns (PIRVAS)As it is now - primarily thought Child Health and Nutrition MonthsAs it is now - only UNICEF, but it's unclear what services they support/ which regions they supportAs it is now - routine services plus biannual fixed site outreach through Child Health Days
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Type of data appropriate for counterfactualCurrent (national) coverageA mix of routine-only (urban) and door-to-door campaign coverage (urban)Routine-only coverageRoutine-only coverageRoutine-only coverage
(May be approximated by coverage in UNICEF provinces if no catch-up campaigns)		Routine-only coverageRoutine-only coverageDowngrade current (national) coverage to reflect reduced catch-up campaignsRoutine-only coverageCurrent (national) coverageRoutine-only coverageCurrent (national) coverageCurrent (national) coverage, minus PIRVAS effortsCurrent (national) coverageCurrent (national) coverageCurrent (national) coverage
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Estimated counterfactual
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Country-specific coverage estimate (%)
20 (CI: 5 - 35)35 (20 - 50)20 (CI: 5 - 35)10 (CI: 0 - 20)20 (CI: 10 - 30)20 (CI: 10 - 30)15 (CI: 5 - 25)45 (CI: 30 - 60)15 (CI: 5 - 30)50 (CI: 40 - 60)10 (CI: 0 - 20)50 (CI: 45 - 55)45 (CI: 40 - 50)45 (CI: 40 - 50)Unknown60 (45 - 75)
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Description of how estimate reachedAverage of administrative data across multiple yearsTriangulating between a population-weighted estimate for expected access via mix of services, and DHS estimate for UNICEF provinces in 2021Triangulating between a backed-out estimate from UNICEF reports, and extrpolation from a recent PECSUsing lower bound of DHS 2014-15, and qualitative assessment that routine is still weakTriangulating between survey data available for one province, and HKI reported levels of administrative coverage Based primarily on HKI-reported administrative coverage. Triangulating between the lower bound of the 2018 DHS, and a bottom-up estimate based on assumptions about access via various routine systemsTriangulating between HKI's guess, a downgraded DHS, and (to a lesser extent) extrapolation from PECS dataBased only on a bottom-up estimate based on assumptions about access via various routine systemsAdjusting scoping study results for representativeness, plus more recent camapign integration in 2023Weighted average based on HKI report of administrative data for children aged 6 - 23 months and 12 - 59 months.Primarily based on HKI scoping study, adjusted for representativeness Primarily based on HKI scoping study, adjusted to remove PIRVAS and make more nationally representativeAverage of HKI and DHS coverage in three regions used to downgrade adjust DHS coverage result-Based on administrative reported coverage for five months of routine activities, plus one month of fixed site outreach, with an adjustment for double dosing
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Key uncertaintiesLikelihood of repeated integrated campaignsGovernment ability to continue supporting biannual outreach Expected improvement since 2018/19Expected improvement since 2015Whether UNICEF provinces are a good proxy-Proportion of children that attend consultations/ growth monitoring and receive VASTo what extent Malezi Bora will continue, and for how longProportion of children that attend consultations/ growth monitoring and receive VASLikelihood of repeated vaccine campaigns and integration---Whether HKI will increase support in other regionsWhat the current methods of VAS delivery are, as this may have changed since 2022Whether there are also catch-up campaigns
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Suggested grouped estimate for CEA2035151515151545155015505050Unknown50
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Most recent DHS
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National coverage (%)5.73754.544.170.44641.163.667.974.659.650.169.453.381.761.6
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Year(s)2015-16202120182014-152013-142021201820222018201120122019201920222013-142016
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Description of delivery methods at time of surveyCampaign took place at a similar time to the survey, unclear whether it is captured and highly ineffective or not capturedLikely to capture campaign activitiesLikely captures a mix of mass campaign and routine delivery of VASSome regions may capture routine-only coverage, given timing of campaignsExpect that this captures campaigns at the time, but have not specifically checkedDistricts split between delivery methods: 41 routine-only, while 72 had mass or catch-up campaignsCaptures a mix of coverage from less effective Maternal and Child Health Week, and routine-onlyExpect that this captures Malezi Bora (i.e. catch-up campaign) but have not specifically checkedLikely to capture campaign activitiesLikely to capture campaign activitiesUnknown - have not checkedPossibly some overlap with catch-up campaigns, but not explicitly checkedPossibly some overlap with districts still transitioning away from campaigns, but not explicitly checkedFixed site delivery of VAS at health facilities + some mobile outreach. Likely caprturing December 2021 VAS delivery.Unknown - have not checkedUnable to determine this
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Other sources - publicly available only
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Additional data used that is not public?NoYesYesNoNoYesNoYesNoYesYesYesYesYesNoYes
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Coverage (%)21 - 409514 - 17%-2016 - 60-40 - 50-54 - 853 - 20-----
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Year(s)2018 - 202120212018-2019--2021-2023-2020 - 20222022-----
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Description of resultAdministrative data, assume this is coverage “per year” rather than “per six months”Adminstrative report data for the same campaign as captured by DHS aboveBack-calculated routine-only coverage based on reported doses delivered-Not describedAdministrative coverage in both semesters of 2021, routine-only districts-Best guess of coverage that could be achieved through routine today without partner support, from an expert-Coverage reported by MoH and by Provincial Directorate, in one province onlyAdministrative data of routine coverage, upper bound is for children aged 6 - 23 months-----
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SourceUNICEF (2023, p. 68)HKI 2022 coverage reportUNICEF COAR (2018, 2019)-HKI’s RFMF report (2021, p. 18)HKI’s annual coverage report-Not public-USAID (2023)HKI RFMF (2022, p. 16)-----
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Coverage (%)----30 < 30%----------
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Year(s)----20212022----------
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Description of result----Best guess of coverage before HKI campaigns started, from an expertAdministrative data in routine districts----------
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Source----Not publicHKI presentation (slide 3)----------
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Coverage (%)---11.6 - 15.1----------
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Year(s)---2019----------
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Description of result---Surveys conducted in only two districts in Sud Kivu province.----------
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Source---PRONANUT (2019, p. 12)----------
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Coverage (%)----30 - 40-----------
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Year(s)----2023-----------
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Description of result----Administrative coverage in UNICEF provinces, described by an expert-----------
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Source----Not public-----------
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