Sources: COVID-19 Model
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SourceNotes/SummaryLink
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Hospital DataAmerican Hospital Association 2018
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American Hospital DirectoryUsed to supplement missing ICU bed countshttps://www.ahd.com/
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Population DataUnited States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2013-2017 5-year Data Releasehttps://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2018/acs-5year.html
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Proportion of People Infected
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20%Marc Lipsitch revised estimateestimated 20-60% of adults will become infectedhttps://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/the-latest-on-the-coronavirus/
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40%Marc Lipsitch as told to CBS Newsestimated 40-70% of adults infectedhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/
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60%Deutsche Gesellschaft für Epidemiologieestimated 50-70 % of population infectedhttps://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020Corona_DGEpi-20200319.pdf
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Proportion of people hospitalizedWu and McGoogan 2020, JAMA15% total, 23% confirmed caseshttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
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Proportion of people in ICUWu and McGoogan 2020, JAMA3% of total, 5% of confirmed caseshttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
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Average LOS for those hospitalized
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In hospitalGuan et al. 2020, NEJM12 days (median), 12.8 days (mean)https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
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Zhou et al. 2020, Lancet11 days (all patients)https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
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Those who died in ICUUniversity of Toronto epidemiologist Davis Fisman as told to VOX reporters28 dayshttps://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained
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Likelihood of >65 being hospitalizedGuan et al. 2020, NEJM15% of patients were 65+ in Chinahttps://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
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The World Bank, 201810.92% of China's total population 65+https://data.worldbank.org/country/china
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Rates of transmissionMarc Lipsitch, preprint 2020Reproductive numbers in provinces in China ranged from 1.06-3.88
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1.full.pdf
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Zhang et al. 2020, International Journal of Infectious DiseaseR0 estimated at 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the Diamond Princess cruise ship
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220300916?via%3Dihub
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Liu et al. Journal of Travel Medicine 2020Authors review studies of COVID-19 reproductive number. Studies using stochastic methods estimate R0=2.2-2.68; studies using mathematical methods estimate R0=1.5-6.49; studies using statistical methods estimate R0=2.2-3.58
https://watermark.silverchair.com/taaa021.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAApkwggKVBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKGMIICggIBADCCAnsGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMty7shlOpqX3G-GG6AgEQgIICTMmPnDakVkay3WbZ5R5OlpZ2ePnmJXIblDrwlSmoY9WMuD5o0RTdKxyroVlpNxsptb5yZprFdcPpC-2wMYWZTgrj_Rr6r8MHgqLb4-wK-dmMO5pnZmoEJ1FJYd8bFTJMzunXR0KOUAO27jQuImRrUgIXl-RRqkT5P4EacLG1781R5PgH6uUf-tRDNUIb5FTwb0oh09jCeoJXLRMCacgYBKABnRYKnnz6Ggr00sh_nSzMtLlWn2vTnLyNQVAprkTcwYJET2RiNo12bu5jY0Im0CGcdQJdEiw3fobwCrfEmqlZ831hwai82CmGnokk3YSIkP704OwSVHn8okCHcTO73fXLX1oYYrde4UFzEsFFoCCD-XaeDHVXWl_Psp3fKvdHj99uPvrYv4ptEi6OaCC4QrbH3OcY5lFIQbuJixBsclp-JjFpPF7rDKQJQz7_FJoaC-GUUcWbJ-WhauuqgWo1oHfJhhiHWu-ay97aRk3EQ1KRQSmF0EBPcOQdDDGMp7m590CKBjc-UjleopmiKM97ltORVOPlNSmgiyHPdQG9TQuI0A6i62mZyRvPCfbby7bI4WBHp3CYJ8wOgqIDhKpvNm6cdJrMIkiDKHCgNnQziVVAs-HoDlBYebLOaA8q-SE4ozfXzsganhLsXyqo9W8B7GVWQllisNFoY7P1fYXpH--VILq1fjZmuqMguIeSRc1FrbcaacvVR8IDGhMPPa3_rs5ywdO0ggnFlDFc-pVGAi4pRBINPo2T5qUXccxj3bVVLSZczgBqbJw3a-CeLw
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