| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | AF | AG | AH | AI | AM | |
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1 | VISITORS: Hi. As things stand right now (9:40 AM on Thursday November 6th, 2014), Mark Begich is losing to Dan Sullivan by 7,500 votes or 3.74%. In order to win, he must do better among the uncounted ballots than he has in the counted ballots. The question is: how MUCH better? That's what this spreadsheet is intended to answer. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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3 | Begich is essentially betting that his absentee and early voting operations will result in the absentees and early votes breaking harder in his favor than the Election day poll-votes did. I've posited a "Begich Better By" factor the reflect how much harder (in terms of percent spread) they have to break in order for him to get the votes he needs to win. It's meant to serve as a measure of how much better Begich has to be at getting A/E voters than he was at getting regular Election Day votes in order to win. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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5 | I've given two scenarios here: one where the absentees/earlies vote for "Other" in proportion to how the poll-voters did, and one where Begich gets all the "other" voters. Tinker with the values in cells P43 and AB43 to see how the results change. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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7 | UNCOUNTED VOTES | COUNTED VOTES | "Consistent split" scenario | "Begich Better" Scenario: Begich improves on "consistent split" scenario by x% in every district | "Begich Better and Brings Friends" Scenario: Begich improves on "consistent split" scenario by x% in every district AFTER getting all projected "other" votes | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | DISTRICT | EARLY VOTES | ABSENTEES | TOTAL UNCOUNTED | BEGICH VOTES CAST | SULLIVAN VOTES CAST | OTHER VOTES | BEGICH PERCENT | SULLIVAN PERCENT | OTHER PERCENT | BEGICH-SULLIVAN SPREAD | PROJECTED UNCOUNTED BEGICH | PROJECTED UNCOUNTED SULLIVAN | BEGICH BETTER BY (set in cell P43: change there, changes all districts) | BEGICH PERCENT (UNCOUNTEDS) | SULLIVAN PERCENT (UNCOUNTEDS) | OTHER PERCENT | NEW BEGICH-SULLIVAN SPREAD | PROJECTED UNCOUNTED BEGICH | PROJECTED UNCOUNTED SULLIVAN | PROJECTED OTHER VOTES (UNCOUNTED) | BEGICH BETTER BY (set in cell Y43: change there, changes all districts) | BEGICH PERCENT (UNCOUNTEDS) | SULLIVAN PERCENT (UNCOUNTEDS) | OTHER PERCENT | NEW BEGICH-SULLIVAN SPREAD | PROJECTED UNCOUNTED BEGICH | PROJECTED UNCOUNTED SULLIVAN | PROJECTED OTHER VOTES (UNCOUNTED) | ||||
9 | District 1 | 73 | 113 | 186 | 2407 | 2270 | 294 | 48.42% | 45.66% | 5.91% | 2.76% | 90 | 85 | 45.00% | 70.92% | 23.16% | 5.91% | 47.76% | 132 | 43 | 11 | 37.00% | 72.84% | 27.16% | 0.00% | 45.67% | 135 | 51 | 0 | ||||
10 | District 2 | 36 | 92 | 128 | 1171 | 1888 | 204 | 35.89% | 57.86% | 6.25% | -21.97% | 46 | 74 | 45.00% | 58.39% | 35.36% | 6.25% | 23.03% | 75 | 45 | 8 | 37.00% | 60.64% | 39.36% | 0.00% | 21.28% | 78 | 50 | 0 | ||||
11 | District 3 | 57 | 109 | 166 | 1405 | 3711 | 348 | 25.71% | 67.92% | 6.37% | -42.20% | 43 | 113 | 45.00% | 48.21% | 45.42% | 6.37% | 2.80% | 80 | 75 | 11 | 37.00% | 50.58% | 49.42% | 0.00% | 1.17% | 84 | 82 | 0 | ||||
12 | District 4 | 55 | 202 | 257 | 3952 | 3502 | 369 | 50.52% | 44.77% | 4.72% | 5.75% | 130 | 115 | 45.00% | 73.02% | 22.27% | 4.72% | 50.75% | 188 | 57 | 12 | 37.00% | 73.73% | 26.27% | 0.00% | 47.47% | 189 | 68 | 0 | ||||
13 | District 5 | 54 | 125 | 179 | 2960 | 2703 | 315 | 49.51% | 45.22% | 5.27% | 4.30% | 89 | 81 | 45.00% | 72.01% | 22.72% | 5.27% | 49.30% | 129 | 41 | 9 | 37.00% | 73.28% | 26.72% | 0.00% | 46.57% | 131 | 48 | 0 | ||||
14 | District 6 | 139 | 899 | 1038 | 2074 | 2728 | 355 | 40.22% | 52.90% | 6.88% | -12.68% | 417 | 549 | 45.00% | 62.72% | 30.40% | 6.88% | 32.32% | 651 | 316 | 71 | 37.00% | 65.60% | 34.40% | 0.00% | 31.20% | 681 | 357 | 0 | ||||
15 | District 7 | 180 | 195 | 375 | 1541 | 3815 | 467 | 26.46% | 65.52% | 8.02% | -39.05% | 99 | 246 | 45.00% | 48.96% | 43.02% | 8.02% | 5.95% | 184 | 161 | 30 | 37.00% | 52.98% | 47.02% | 0.00% | 5.97% | 199 | 176 | 0 | ||||
16 | District 8 | 97 | 203 | 300 | 1352 | 3683 | 465 | 24.58% | 66.96% | 8.45% | -42.38% | 74 | 201 | 45.00% | 47.08% | 44.46% | 8.45% | 2.62% | 141 | 133 | 25 | 37.00% | 51.54% | 48.46% | 0.00% | 3.07% | 155 | 145 | 0 | ||||
17 | District 9 | 353 | 804 | 1157 | 1626 | 3346 | 408 | 30.22% | 62.19% | 7.58% | -31.97% | 350 | 720 | 45.00% | 52.72% | 39.69% | 7.58% | 13.03% | 610 | 459 | 88 | 37.00% | 56.31% | 43.69% | 0.00% | 12.61% | 651 | 506 | 0 | ||||
18 | District 10 | 134 | 376 | 510 | 1827 | 3910 | 526 | 29.17% | 62.43% | 8.40% | -33.26% | 149 | 318 | 45.00% | 51.67% | 39.93% | 8.40% | 11.74% | 264 | 204 | 43 | 37.00% | 56.07% | 43.93% | 0.00% | 12.14% | 286 | 224 | 0 | ||||
19 | District 11 | 86 | 649 | 735 | 1896 | 4105 | 422 | 29.52% | 63.91% | 6.57% | -34.39% | 217 | 470 | 45.00% | 52.02% | 41.41% | 6.57% | 10.61% | 382 | 304 | 48 | 37.00% | 54.59% | 45.41% | 0.00% | 9.18% | 401 | 334 | 0 | ||||
20 | District 12 | 186 | 591 | 777 | 1816 | 4280 | 435 | 27.81% | 65.53% | 6.66% | -37.73% | 216 | 509 | 45.00% | 50.31% | 43.03% | 6.66% | 7.27% | 391 | 334 | 52 | 37.00% | 52.97% | 47.03% | 0.00% | 5.93% | 412 | 365 | 0 | ||||
21 | District 13 | 18 | 253 | 271 | 1227 | 2472 | 250 | 31.07% | 62.60% | 6.33% | -31.53% | 84 | 170 | 45.00% | 53.57% | 40.10% | 6.33% | 13.47% | 145 | 109 | 17 | 37.00% | 55.90% | 44.10% | 0.00% | 11.80% | 151 | 120 | 0 | ||||
22 | District 14 | 32 | 577 | 609 | 2528 | 4549 | 306 | 34.24% | 61.61% | 4.14% | -27.37% | 209 | 375 | 45.00% | 56.74% | 39.11% | 4.14% | 17.63% | 346 | 238 | 25 | 37.00% | 56.89% | 43.11% | 0.00% | 13.77% | 346 | 263 | 0 | ||||
23 | District 15 | 12 | 249 | 261 | 1564 | 1545 | 190 | 47.41% | 46.83% | 5.76% | 0.58% | 124 | 122 | 45.00% | 69.91% | 24.33% | 5.76% | 45.58% | 182 | 64 | 15 | 37.00% | 71.67% | 28.33% | 0.00% | 43.34% | 187 | 74 | 0 | ||||
24 | District 16 | 34 | 262 | 296 | 2942 | 2331 | 293 | 52.86% | 41.88% | 5.26% | 10.98% | 156 | 124 | 45.00% | 75.36% | 19.38% | 5.26% | 55.98% | 223 | 57 | 16 | 37.00% | 76.62% | 23.38% | 0.00% | 53.24% | 227 | 69 | 0 | ||||
25 | District 17 | 30 | 245 | 275 | 2637 | 1967 | 298 | 53.79% | 40.13% | 6.08% | 13.67% | 148 | 110 | 45.00% | 76.29% | 17.63% | 6.08% | 58.67% | 210 | 48 | 17 | 37.00% | 78.37% | 21.63% | 0.00% | 56.75% | 216 | 59 | 0 | ||||
26 | District 18 | 64 | 326 | 390 | 3270 | 1964 | 251 | 59.62% | 35.81% | 4.58% | 23.81% | 233 | 140 | 45.00% | 82.12% | 13.31% | 4.58% | 68.81% | 320 | 52 | 18 | 37.00% | 82.69% | 17.31% | 0.00% | 65.39% | 323 | 67 | 0 | ||||
27 | District 19 | 28 | 189 | 217 | 2405 | 1115 | 214 | 64.41% | 29.86% | 5.73% | 34.55% | 140 | 65 | 45.00% | 86.91% | 7.36% | 5.73% | 79.55% | 189 | 16 | 12 | 37.00% | 88.64% | 11.36% | 0.00% | 77.28% | 192 | 25 | 0 | ||||
28 | District 20 | 49 | 438 | 487 | 3340 | 1599 | 200 | 64.99% | 31.12% | 3.89% | 33.88% | 317 | 152 | 45.00% | 87.49% | 8.62% | 3.89% | 78.88% | 426 | 42 | 19 | 37.00% | 87.38% | 12.62% | 0.00% | 74.77% | 426 | 61 | 0 | ||||
29 | District 21 | 21 | 309 | 330 | 3766 | 2925 | 270 | 54.10% | 42.02% | 3.88% | 12.08% | 179 | 139 | 45.00% | 76.60% | 19.52% | 3.88% | 57.08% | 253 | 64 | 13 | 37.00% | 76.48% | 23.52% | 0.00% | 52.96% | 252 | 78 | 0 | ||||
30 | District 22 | 21 | 274 | 295 | 2966 | 3420 | 327 | 44.18% | 50.95% | 4.87% | -6.76% | 130 | 150 | 45.00% | 66.68% | 28.45% | 4.87% | 38.24% | 197 | 84 | 14 | 37.00% | 67.55% | 32.45% | 0.00% | 35.11% | 199 | 96 | 0 | ||||
31 | District 23 | 38 | 209 | 247 | 2614 | 2344 | 275 | 49.95% | 44.79% | 5.26% | 5.16% | 123 | 111 | 45.00% | 72.45% | 22.29% | 5.26% | 50.16% | 179 | 55 | 13 | 37.00% | 73.71% | 26.29% | 0.00% | 47.41% | 182 | 65 | 0 | ||||
32 | District 24 | 27 | 347 | 374 | 3126 | 3951 | 236 | 42.75% | 54.03% | 3.23% | -11.28% | 160 | 202 | 45.00% | 65.25% | 31.53% | 3.23% | 33.72% | 244 | 118 | 12 | 37.00% | 64.47% | 35.53% | 0.00% | 28.95% | 241 | 133 | 0 | ||||
33 | District 25 | 30 | 235 | 265 | 2962 | 2912 | 316 | 47.85% | 47.04% | 5.11% | 0.81% | 127 | 125 | 45.00% | 70.35% | 24.54% | 5.11% | 45.81% | 186 | 65 | 14 | 37.00% | 71.46% | 28.54% | 0.00% | 42.91% | 189 | 76 | 0 | ||||
34 | District 26 | 34 | 334 | 368 | 2831 | 3756 | 248 | 41.42% | 54.95% | 3.63% | -13.53% | 152 | 202 | 45.00% | 63.92% | 32.45% | 3.63% | 31.47% | 235 | 119 | 13 | 37.00% | 63.55% | 36.45% | 0.00% | 27.10% | 234 | 134 | 0 | ||||
35 | District 27 | 25 | 282 | 307 | 3481 | 3225 | 324 | 49.52% | 45.87% | 4.61% | 3.64% | 152 | 141 | 45.00% | 72.02% | 23.37% | 4.61% | 48.64% | 221 | 72 | 14 | 37.00% | 72.63% | 27.37% | 0.00% | 45.25% | 223 | 84 | 0 | ||||
36 | District 28 | 41 | 462 | 503 | 3972 | 4690 | 237 | 44.63% | 52.70% | 2.66% | -8.07% | 225 | 265 | 45.00% | 67.13% | 30.20% | 2.66% | 36.93% | 338 | 152 | 13 | 37.00% | 65.80% | 34.20% | 0.00% | 31.59% | 331 | 172 | 0 | ||||
37 | District 29 | 70 | 1450 | 1520 | 1564 | 3481 | 418 | 28.63% | 63.72% | 7.65% | -35.09% | 435 | 969 | 45.00% | 51.13% | 41.22% | 7.65% | 9.91% | 777 | 627 | 116 | 37.00% | 54.78% | 45.22% | 0.00% | 9.56% | 833 | 687 | 0 | ||||
38 | District 30 | 28 | 989 | 1017 | 1463 | 3556 | 358 | 27.21% | 66.13% | 6.66% | -38.93% | 277 | 673 | 45.00% | 49.71% | 43.63% | 6.66% | 6.07% | 506 | 444 | 68 | 37.00% | 52.37% | 47.63% | 0.00% | 4.73% | 533 | 484 | 0 | ||||
39 | District 31 | 69 | 1646 | 1715 | 2381 | 3004 | 401 | 41.15% | 51.92% | 6.93% | -10.77% | 706 | 890 | 45.00% | 63.65% | 29.42% | 6.93% | 34.23% | 1,092 | 505 | 119 | 37.00% | 66.58% | 33.42% | 0.00% | 33.16% | 1,142 | 573 | 0 | ||||
40 | District 32 | 43 | 751 | 794 | 2123 | 1989 | 326 | 47.84% | 44.82% | 7.35% | 3.02% | 380 | 356 | 45.00% | 70.34% | 22.32% | 7.35% | 48.02% | 558 | 177 | 58 | 37.00% | 73.68% | 26.32% | 0.00% | 47.37% | 585 | 209 | 0 | ||||
41 | District 33 | 73 | 1715 | 1788 | 4266 | 1868 | 288 | 66.43% | 29.09% | 4.48% | 37.34% | 1,188 | 520 | 45.00% | 88.93% | 6.59% | 4.48% | 82.34% | 1,590 | 118 | 80 | 37.00% | 89.41% | 10.59% | 0.00% | 78.82% | 1,599 | 189 | 0 | ||||
42 | District 34 | 154 | 275 | 429 | 3841 | 3179 | 374 | 51.95% | 42.99% | 5.06% | 8.95% | 223 | 184 | 45.00% | 74.45% | 20.49% | 5.06% | 53.95% | 319 | 88 | 22 | 37.00% | 75.51% | 24.49% | 0.00% | 51.01% | 324 | 105 | 0 | ||||
43 | District 35 | 36 | 1424 | 1460 | 3088 | 2216 | 437 | 53.79% | 38.60% | 7.61% | 15.19% | 785 | 564 | 45.00% | 76.29% | 16.10% | 7.61% | 60.19% | 1,114 | 235 | 111 | 37.00% | 79.90% | 20.10% | 0.00% | 59.80% | 1,167 | 293 | 0 | ||||
44 | District 36 | 12 | 924 | 936 | 2147 | 2701 | 382 | 41.05% | 51.64% | 7.30% | -10.59% | 384 | 483 | 45.00% | 63.55% | 29.14% | 7.30% | 34.41% | 595 | 273 | 68 | 37.00% | 66.86% | 33.14% | 0.00% | 33.71% | 626 | 310 | 0 | ||||
45 | District 37 | 77 | 523 | 600 | 2344 | 1001 | 254 | 65.13% | 27.81% | 7.06% | 37.32% | 391 | 167 | 45.00% | 87.63% | 5.31% | 7.06% | 82.32% | 526 | 32 | 42 | 37.00% | 90.69% | 9.31% | 0.00% | 81.37% | 544 | 56 | 0 | ||||
46 | District 38 | 29 | 200 | 229 | 3166 | 703 | 435 | 73.56% | 16.33% | 10.11% | 57.23% | 168 | 37 | 45.00% | 89.89% | 0.00% | 10.11% | 89.89% | 206 | 0 | 23 | 37.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 229 | 0 | 0 | ||||
47 | District 39 | 71 | 224 | 295 | 3660 | 1058 | 415 | 71.30% | 20.61% | 8.08% | 50.69% | 210 | 61 | 45.00% | 91.92% | 0.00% | 8.08% | 91.92% | 271 | 0 | 24 | 37.00% | 97.89% | 2.11% | 0.00% | 95.78% | 289 | 6 | 0 | ||||
48 | District 40 | 35 | 245 | 280 | 2353 | 1038 | 336 | 63.13% | 27.85% | 9.02% | 35.28% | 177 | 78 | 45.00% | 85.63% | 5.35% | 9.02% | 80.28% | 240 | 15 | 25 | 37.00% | 90.65% | 9.35% | 0.00% | 81.30% | 254 | 26 | 0 | ||||
49 | TOTAL | 2651 | 19715 | 22366 | 102054 | 110500 | 13267 | 45.19% | 48.93% | 6.24% | -3.74% | 9,901 | 11,054 | 0.45 | <-- x% entered HERE | 14,913 | 6,041 | 1,411 | 0.37 | <-- x% entered HERE | 15,445 | 6,921 | 0 | ||||||||||
50 | Counted plus uncounted vote totals | 116,967 | 116,541 | 14678 | Counted plus uncounted vote totals | 117,499 | 117,421 | 13267 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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