NFL 2019 Model Tracker
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RISKNETROIWLPWIN %AVG PEDGECLVnvCLV
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Overall60.836.7911.17%2217056.41%50.98%5.43%0.9%-0.4%
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What is this?
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This is a Google Sheet that shows the results of all of the NFL model plays from 2019.
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How are the model plays shared?
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Model plays are availabe for purchase at samkonmodels.com/products
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How does it work?
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The model pulls in various data points and gives each of the 32 teams category ratings for pass offense, pass defense, rush offense, rush defense, and special teams. Those ratings are then analyzed to see how performance in each of those categories correlated with overall team strength. Those correlations arre then translated into unique correlation coefficients for each category, which arre then used in a formula I created to estimate expected wins. The correlation coefficients are dynamic from week-to-week and recalculated when new data was entered.
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How are model plays determined?
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For each matchup, each team's expected win probability for a single game and home court advantage are combined to spit out a model spread which is then compared to the Vegas line. Any disagreement of two points or more becomes a model play. 2 points of disagreement is a 1 unit play; 3 points of disagreement is a 1.5 unit play; 5.4 points of disagreement is a 2.7 unit play etc. The units are part of the "to win amount" on lines juiced -100 or worse, and the "risk" amount on lines juiced +100 or better.
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What if someone has a different line?
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If the line moves in favor of the model play, 0.25 units are to be added to the "to win" amount for each half point the spread moves in your favor. If it moves against the model play, 0.5 units are to be subtracted for each half point. If the process of subtracting units brought a play below a unit, it is no longer a model play.
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What book did you use?
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I am using Pinnacle lines for all plays this season.
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