Public copy of CEA 2017
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Other cells have at least one supporting source noted in comments or source section of that cell.
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Efficacy of vaccines
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DPT1
DPT2 (addt'l efficacy from DTP 1)
DPT3 (addt'l efficacy from DTP2)
MeaslesMeasles 2Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3HepB 1HepB 2HepB 3RubellaRotavirus 1Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3PCV 1PCV 2PCV 3TyphoidVitamin A
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Pertussis0.3332396750.352842010.078409335
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Diphtheria0.41409550.4384630.097432
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Tetanus0.41410256360.43846153940.09743589696
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Measles0.882758830.01169812925
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Hib0.470.280.2
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Hep B0.30.40.25
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Rubella0.716
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Rotavirus0.23364240.24738461590.05497216
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Pneumococcal conjugate0.47883720930.071733615220.02942917548
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Typhoid0.8
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Excluded vaccines: BCG and HepB 0 (adminstered at birth), all polio vaccines (disease eliminated), tetanus (pre-natal and post age 5), Japanese encephalitis (regional)
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Baseline coverage estimates
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DPT1DPT2DPT3Measles 1Measles 2Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3HepB 1HepB 2HepB 3RubellaRotavirus 1Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3PCV 1PCV 2PCV 3TyphoidVitamin A
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Baseline coverage from RSOC and WHO90.0%85.9%74.8%78.9%69.0%90.0%85.9%74.8%90.0%85.9%74.8%
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Baseline coverage from GW numbers83.0%74.0%
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Assume baseline coverage for future (using 2015 data from WHO)90.0%88.50%87.0%87.0%69.0%45.0%87.0%
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Proportion of vaccination gap closed
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DPT1DPT2DPT3Measles 1Measles 2Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3HepB 1HepB 2HepB 3RubellaRotavirus 1Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3PCV 1PCV 2PCV 3TyphoidVitamin A
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What proportion of gap is reduced by SMS?34.91%
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Discounts
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Discount for uncertainty/things are always worse than they seem50%
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Cold chain penalty
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PCV additional uncertainty penalty
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Tetanus discount80%
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Increase in vaccinations received in percentage points
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DPT1DPT2DPT3Measles 1Measles 2Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3HepB 1HepB 2HepB 3RubellaRotavirus 1Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3PCV 1PCV 2PCV 3TyphoidVitamin A
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Vaccine % point increase with RSOC and WHO rates1.7%2.5%4.4%3.7%5.4%1.7%2.5%4.4%1.7%2.5%4.4%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
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Vaccine % point increase with GW rates3.0%3.0%3.0%4.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
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Vaccine % point increase, with WHO numbers.1.7%2.0%2.3%2.3%5.4%9.6%17.5%2.3%
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The estimates above are based on the effect of the proportion of the gap covered in the four strongest studies we've found. The proportion is coverted into a percentage point estimate and multiplied by an uncertainty factor.
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Average fatality rate for immunization preventable diseases per completely unvaccinated Indian child
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Source
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Pertussis0.000609069
GW "Incentives for immunization CEA 03-16-16" on the Summary tab
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Diptheria0.000000520
GBD estimate of diptheria 0.052 (CI 0.028-0.09) per 100,000 for under 5 deaths; all cause morality under 5 estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1016.86 per 100,000 in 2015. All population, not unvaccinated specific (underestimate). GBD link - http://ihmeuw.org/400u
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Tetanus0.000067700
GBD estimate of tetanus of 6.77 (CI 4.94-9.17) per 100,000 for under 5 deaths. all cause morality under 5 estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1016.86 per 100,000 in 2015. All population, not unvaccinated specific (underestimate). GBD link - http://ihmeuw.org/400s
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Measles0.001138955
GW "Incentives for immunization CEA 03-16-16" on the Summary tab
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Hib0.000369031
Estimate uses that Hib causes 7.2*10^4 <5 Indian deaths on a population that is 0% immunized (http://www.who.int/immunization/diseases/hib/GBD_Hib.pdf?ua=1), with an annual birth cohort of 2.7*10^7.
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Hep B0.000709091
Estimated Hep B causes 7.8*10^4 premature Indian deaths annually on a 1.1*10^9 population that is 0% immunized, with an annual birth cohort of 2.7*10^7 and no discount applied for Hep B deaths likely occuring after 5 years of age.
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Rubella
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Rotavirus0.000171900
GBD estimate of rotaviral enteritis 17.19 (CI 10.59-27.35) per 100,000 for under 5 deaths; all cause morality under 5 estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1016.86 per 100,000 in 2015. All population, not unvaccinated specific (underestimate). GBD link - http://ihmeuw.org/400v
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Pneumococcal pneumonia0.000663800
GBD estimate of pneumonoccal pneumonia 66.38 (CI 41.16-90.26) per 100,000 for under 5 deaths; all cause morality under 5 estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1016.86 per 100,000 in 2015. All population, not unvaccinated specific (underestimate). GBD link - http://ihmeuw.org/400g
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Pneumococcal meningitis0.000048300
GBD estimate of pneumonoccal meningitis of 4.83 (CI 3.29-7.35) per 100,000 for under 5 deaths. all cause morality under 5 estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1016.86 per 100,000 in 2015. All population, not unvaccinated specific (underestimate). GBD link - http://ihmeuw.org/400i
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Typhoid0.000158900
GBD estimate of typhoid fever 15.89 (CI 8.42-27.83) per 100,000 for under 5 deaths; all cause morality under 5 estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1016.86 per 100,000 in 2015. All population, not unvaccinated specific (underestimate). GBD link - http://ihmeuw.org/400t
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Average0.000393727
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Immunization preventable deaths averted by increased immunization coverage per child reached
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DPT1DPT2DPT3Measles 1Measles 2Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3HepB 1Hep B2Hep B3RubellaRotavirus 1 Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3PCV 1PCV 2PCV 3TyphoidVitamin A
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Pertussis0.000003542993310.0000052894806170.000002100786613
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Diptheria0.0000000037588153270.0000000056118046120.000000002228705251
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Tetanus0.00000039150175140.00000058448908720.0000002321375082
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Measles0.000037032090190.000000720994263
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Hib0.0000030276644970.0000025432381770.000003246687035
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Hep B0.0000037133877660.0000069811690.000007798114309
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Rubella
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Rotavirus0.0000014793029560.0000015663115670.0000003480553135
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Pneumococcal pneumonia0.000011707245590.0000017538383270.0000007195234163
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Pneumococcal meningitis0.00000085185291020.00000012761432840.00000005235459628
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Typhoid0.000004682130066
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GW Origin Alternate - Immunization preventable deaths averted by increased immunization coverage per child reached
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DPT1DPT2DPT3MeaslesMeasles 2Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3HepB 1Hep B2Hep B3RubellaRotavirus 1 Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3PCV 1PCV 2PCV 3TyphoidVitamin A
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Lives saved w/GW Baseline Immunization Rates
0.000006695031590.0000070888571390.000001575301510.000045631959480.00000039538395070.0000051470296450.0000030663155330.0000021902253810.0000063127592020.000008417012270.0000052606326690.0000011918554620.0000012619571860.00000028042371230.000010118704950.0000015158623290.00000062189223760.00000377233228
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Pertussis isolated w/GW0.0000060230886260.0000063773879780.000001417197319
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Tetanus w/GW0.00000041597061080.00000088087894350.0000001957508749
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Total Lives Saved
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National estimates
RSOC and WHO
GW Origin Alternate
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Total lives saved per child reached
0.000095822432450.0001067712042
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Total lives - no rotarvirus, PCV, or rubella
0.000077216333450.00009178050837
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Total lives - no rotarvirus0.000092428762620.0001040369679
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Total lives - no PCV0.000080610003290.00009451474473
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Total lives - just pertussis and measles
0.0000486863450.00005984501736
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Children reached to save a 1 life all vaccines
10435.979365.82
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Costs Per Child Reached
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Note
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Estimated cost per child at scale
$0.29
This estimate is based on studies on sms immunization reminders as well as current estimates of program costs at scale
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Cost per life saved$3,051.07$2,738.20
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Cost not including rotavirus, PCV, or rubella
$3,786.26$3,185.44
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Cost just including pertussis and measles (because these were based on more Emma info)$6,005$4,885.30
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Alternate Models
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Guesstimate
https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/7674
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CEA estimate
Specific Location Estimates
Implementation Costs
Study results - Gap Reduced
Notes of factors not taken into account