Covid19 - Frozen 20190308

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
1	This sheet has been "frozen" when its corresponding article was published (Mar 8, 2020). Here is the article:
2	https://medium.com/@trentmc0/when-does-hospital-capacity-get-overwhelmed-in-usa-germany-a06cf2835f89
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4	Main Question: At what date does # beds needed exceed # beds available? This tells how much time a region has to take action to slow the growth, before mortality spikes
5	<add a new region by creating a new Gsheet, copying everything in this sheet, and then setting the constants for the region>
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7	Constants for the region
8	(last updated)	Value	What	source url, or notes
9	-	WA state	Region name
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11	Mar 8, 2020	14.00%	%cases->serious/critical	https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases
12	Mar 8, 2020	1.37%	%cases->death	Death rate if adequate medical care. Calculated across Hong Kong, S. Korea, and Singapore. Details in 'DidWell' tab.
13	-	98.63%	%cases->recovery	100% - (%cases->death)
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15	Mar 8, 2020	3.75	weekly growth rate	=(#cases) / (# cases prev week). Use local numbers; or if needed https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina
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17	Mar 8, 2020	102	# reported cases	https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus
18	Mar 8, 2020	16	# reported deaths	https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus
19
20	-	0.00277	# hospital beds / person	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds
21	-	7,535,591	# people	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_(state)
22	-	20,874	# beds	=(# people) * (# beds)
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24	Mar 8, 2020	15.69%	%cases->death for deaths-based estimates	Typically use (%cases->death). Special case: in WA as of Mar 7, most serious cases are age 80+, so use rate at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
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26	Calculations for the region
27	Model assumptions
28		1 week	Time from "serious" to "death"; used in [1]	Optimistic estimate
29		1 week	Time from "serious" to "recovery"; used in [2]	Optimistic estimate
30		75.00%	% deaths from Covid19 that were reported as such	Optimistic estimate
31		15.00%	% beds available	Optimistic estimate. Start with upper bound excess capacity (approx. 20%), then reduce due to: ERs/frontline workers get taken out, or limits on hospital supplies
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33	Model calculations
34		21	est. # deaths now	=(# reported deaths)/(% deaths from Covid19 that were reported as such)
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36		136	deaths-based est. # cases prev week	=(est. # deaths now)/(%cases->death for deaths-based estimates)
37		510	deaths-based est. # cases	=(deaths-based est. # cases prev week) * (weekly growth rate)
38
39		382	incubation-time-based est. # cases	=(# reported cases) * (weekly growth rate) //Optimistic estimate: assume 1 week from infection to reporting
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41		510	est. # cases now	=max(incubation-time-based est. # cases, deaths-based est. # cases)
42
43		20.02%	% cases that got reported	=(# reported cases)/(est. # cases)
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45	Date	Estimated # cases	Patients Needing a Bed (#)	Est. # deaths = (#Cases prev week) * (%cases->death) [1]	#recoveries [2]	# beds freed = # deaths + # recoveries	# beds needed = #serious - #beds freed	Available Beds (#) = Beds (#) * Beds Available (%)
46	Mar 6, 2020	510	71					3,131
47	Mar 13, 2020	1,909	267	7	70	77	190	3,131
48	Mar 20, 2020	7,153	1,001	26	264	290	712	3,131
49	Mar 27, 2020	26,802	3,752	98	988	1,085	2,667	3,131
50	Apr 3, 2020	100,419	14,059	366	3,701	4,067	9,992	3,131
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