Clue Juggling Session Calculator

	B	C	F	G	H	I
1
2	Clue Juggling Session Calculator		HUGE UPDATE (12/30/22): Clue Juggling no longer needs to be done in one session!
3	Make your own copy to edit (File -> Make a Copy)		"Sessions" are now effectively infinitely long, making clue juggling much faster and much healthier. Relevant rate below:
4
5	Inputs:		BUFFED RATES			More Info:
6	Base Clue Drop Rate:	0.00781	Buffed Kills/Casket:	7168		https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDkN9w8BV9M
7	#Doable Steps:	10	Buffed Time Hrs/C:	20.5
8	Kills per Hour:	350
9	Consective Hours Played:	10
10
11	PRE-BUFF RATES (OUTDATED)
12	Chance of Casket:	33.95%	Pre-Buff Explanation:
13	Expected Kills/Casket:	11169	- Clue Juggling is a method for region locked snowflakes to accumulate doable clue steps.
14	Expected Hrs/Casket:	31.9	- The method's unique in that (most of) the grind has to be done all in one "session", with breaks no longer than ~2 minutes.
15			- Unfortunately the effective droprate of doable clues is very low (1/1500+) and it's difficult to play long enough to consistently get 3+ steps.
16	Clue Drop Chances:		- This sheet calculates the chance of completing a casket, given the number of monsters they can manage in a single session.
17	2 Clues Drops in Session:	26.84%	- UIM_Verf's Clue Juggling Explanation.
18	3 Clues:	16.31%	- Bit more info on the math.
19	4+ Clues:	11.24%
20	Chance of Starting Trail:	54.39%
21			Pre-buff Assumptions:
22	Trail Success Rate:		- You begin each session with a doable clue
23	3 Clue Start:	39.64%	- You don't attempt with 2 scrolls total (the ~5% casket chance isn't worth losing the 1st).
24	4 Clue Start:	73.97%	- 3, 4 and 5 step medium clues are equally likely.
25	5 Clue Start:	100.00%	- All Clue steps are equally common. (Wiki data seems to support this, thanks u/cookmeplox_)
26
27	Other Stats:		- Feel free to PM me if you have questions/comments.
28	1 Clue Drop in Session:	29.45%	- A big thanks to Davis Yoshida for a critical insight on the kills/casket calculation.
29	Kills per Session:	3500	- Last update 12/30/2022
30	Keep Starter Clue Chance:	62.24%
31	Infinite Time Kills/Casket:	7168
32	Infinite Time Hrs/Casket:	20.5
33	"Fair" Kills/Casket	1,504,325
34	"Fair" Hrs/Casket	4298
35	Rate:	0.0001080823556
36	Stuff	2601.947347
37	Naive kills per casket	11034.65091
38
39
40
41
42
43
44					Total # Steps	150
45					Doable C Chance:	6.67%
46					Doable in Seq:	6.00%
47					Doable C Drop:	0.0521%
48					Poisson Scale:	1.823
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100