2017 Alabama Senate
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

View only
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAAB
1
ALABAMA
2
Richard Charnin
2017 Senate True Vote Model
3
http://www.cnn.com/election/2017/results/alabama-senate
CELL A182: Input County Row number to CALCULATE SHARES OF RETURNING TRUMP VOTERS REQUIRED TO MATCH COUNTY RECORDED VOTE
4
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.8906eed4d60f
5
6
ALABAMA95%2017
Recorded Vote
Returning and new voters
7
2012RecordedVotesAliveTurnoutTurnout2016PctJonesMooreOtherTurnoutJonesMooreOtherTrump%Visit every# of Days
8
Obama38.36%795,696755,91177%582,052Clinton43.16%96.0%4.0%0.0%582,052558,77023,28203.6%N Years3
9
Romney60.55%1,255,9251,193,12953%632,358Trump46.89%8.0%92.0%0.0%632,35850,589581,770089.2%122NP=1 in
10
Other1.10%22,71721,58160%12,949Other0.96%47.0%24.0%29.0%12,9496,0863,1083,7550.5%5.55E-0711,801,005
11
Did Not Vote (new)
--121,378DNV (new)9.00%47.7%36.5%15.8%121,37857,89844,30319,1786.8%6.94E-08214,408,037
12
TOTAL100%2,074,3381,970,62168.44%1,348,737 Recordedmatch49.92%48.38%1.70%49.92%48.38%1.70%2.06E-08348,627,125
13
65.02%Votes1,348,737673,891651,96922,8771,348,737673,342652,46222,933100.0%8.68E-094115,264,296
14
ObamaRomneyOtherMarginRecorded49.92%48.38%1.70%49.92%48.38%1.70%4.44E-095225,125,579
15
2012795,6961,255,92522,717460,229Margin21,922Margin20,879
16
Clinton TrumpOther
17
2016729,6451,318,09275,635588,447
18
19
ALABAMA99%2017True Vote
20
2016RecordedVotesAliveTurnoutTurnout2016PctJonesMooreOther
21
Clinton34.36%729,645722,34977%556,208Clinton41.2%96.0%4.0%0.0%
22
Trump62.08%1,318,0921,304,91153%691,603Trump51.3%8.0%92.0%0.0%
23
Other3.56%75,63574,87960%44,927Other3.3%47.0%24.0%29.0%
24
Did Not Vote (new)
--55,999DNV (new)4.2%47.7%36.5%15.8%Margin
25
TOTAL100%2,123,3722,102,13864.16%1,348,737True Vote 47.24%51.14%1.62%3.9%
26
63.52%Votes1,348,737637,115689,74521,87752,630
27
TurnoutRecorded49.92%48.38%1.70%1.5%
28
ClintonTrump
Moore margin
MooreJones
29
75%45%-20,71548.43%49.91%
HRC-DJT-Other
75-45-6549.89%48.37%1.73%
recorded 30% Jones turnout margin
30
70%50%70,57751.79%46.54%Turnout70-50-6546.53%51.73%1.74%
Trump wins with Jones 20% turnout margin
31
65%55%161,01155.15%43.18%Sensitivity65-55-6543.16%55.09%1.75%
base case 10% turnout margin?
32
60%60%251,44658.51%39.81%60-60-6539.80%58.45%1.75%
33
62-62-6239.40%58.93%1.66%
equal turnout %
34
True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
76-54-6746.19%52.14%1.67%
35
Moore% Clinton
36
Moore2%3%4%5%6%True Vote
Returning and new voters
37
% TrumpMoore2016TurnoutJonesMooreOther
38
94%51.3%51.8%52.2%52.6%53.0%Clinton556,208533,96022,2480
39
93%50.8%51.2%51.7%52.1%52.5%Trump691,60355,328636,2750
40
92%50.3%50.7%51.14%51.6%52.0%Other44,92721,11610,78313,029
41
91%49.8%50.2%50.6%51.0%51.5%DNV (new)55,99926,71120,4398,848
42
90%49.3%49.7%50.1%50.5%50.9%Share100.0%47.24%51.14%1.62%
43
Votes1,348,737637,115689,74521,877
44
JonesMargin52,630
45
94%47.0%46.6%46.2%45.8%45.4%
46
93%47.5%47.1%46.7%46.3%45.9%
47
92%48.1%47.7%47.24%46.8%46.4%
48
91%48.6%48.2%47.8%47.3%46.9%
49
90%49.1%48.7%48.3%47.9%47.4%
50
51
Moore % margin
52
94%4.3%5.1%6.0%6.8%7.6%
53
93%3.3%4.1%4.9%5.8%6.6%
54
92%2.3%3.1%3.90%4.7%5.6%
55
91%1.2%2.1%2.9%3.7%4.5%
56
90%0.2%1.0%1.9%2.7%3.5%
57
58
Moore margin (000)
59
94%58.069.280.391.4102.5
60
93%44.255.366.577.688.7
61
92%30.441.552.663.874.9
62
91%16.527.738.849.961.0
63
90%2.713.825.036.147.2
64
65
66
2.50%MoEWin Prob
67
94%95.3%97.7%99.0%99.6%99.9%
68
93%89.9%94.5%97.3%98.8%99.5%
69
92%80.9%88.4%93.6%96.7%98.5%
70
91%68.2%78.7%86.8%92.5%96.1%
71
90%52.8%65.3%76.3%85.1%91.4%
72
73
Party-IDCNNJonesMooreOther
74
Democrat37.0%98.0%2.0%0.0%
75
Republican43.0%8.0%91.0%1.0%
76
Independent20.0%51.0%43.0%6.0%
77
Share100.0%49.9%48.5%1.6%
78
Votes1,348,737673,020653,73321,984
79
Margin-19,287
80
81
Party-IDPctJonesMooreOther
82
Democrat27.6%96.0%4.0%0.0%
83
Republican39.0%8.0%91.0%1.0%
84
Independent33.4%51.0%43.0%6.0%
85
Share100.0%46.7%51.0%2.4%
86
Votes1,348,737629,186687,26232,289
87
Margin58,077
88
89
MooreMoore% Rep
90
%Dem89.0%90.0%91.0%92.0%93.0%
91
6%50.7%51.1%51.5%51.9%52.3%
92
5%50.5%50.8%51.2%51.6%52.0%
93
4%50.2%50.6%51.0%51.3%51.7%
94
3%49.9%50.3%50.7%51.1%51.5%
95
2%49.6%50.0%50.4%50.8%51.2%
96
97
98
MooreJones
99
%Dem89.0%90.0%91.0%92.0%93.0%
100
6%46.9%46.5%46.1%45.7%45.3%
Loading...
Main menu