Survation/38 Degrees - nat poll September 2023.xlsx

	A	F
1	Topical Poll
2	Conducted by Survation on behalf of 38 Degrees
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9	Methodology
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11	Fieldwork Dates	Data Weighting
12	11th -25th September 2023	Data were weighted to the profile of all adults in the UK aged 18+. Data were weighted by age, sex, region, highest level of qualification, annual equivalised household income, 2019 General Election Vote, and 2016 EU Referendum Vote.
13		Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics Data and the results of the 2019 UK General Election and the 2016 EU Referendum.
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15	Data Collection Method
16	The survey was conducted via online panel.	Margin of Error
17	Invitations to complete surveys were sent	Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to margin of error, meaning that not all differences are statistically significant.
18	out to members of the panel. Differential	For example, in a question where 50% (the worst case scenario as far as margin of error is concerned) gave a particular answer, given the sample of 10334 it is 95% certain that the ‘true’ value will fall within the range of 1.2% from the sample result.
19	response rates from different demographic	Subsamples from the cross-breaks will be subject to higher margin of error, conclusions drawn from crossbreaks with very small sub-samples should be treated with caution.
20	groups were taken into account.
21		Voting Intention
22	Population Sampled	In order to assess voting intention, we first asked respondents, on a scale of 0-10, how likely they would be to vote in the next general election.
23	Adults aged 18+ living in the UK	This likelihood to vote was then used to weight voters' responses, such that respondents replying “10” were weighted by a factor of 1.0, whilst those responding “9” were weighted by a factor of 0.9, and so on down to responses of “0” being excluded altogether.
24		Respondents were then asked who they would be most likely to vote for if that election were tomorrow. The responses “Conservative”, “Labour”, “Liberal Democrats”, “Scottish National Party (SNP)” (in Scotland), and "Plaid Cymru" (in Wales) were asked in a randomising order, and if respondents selected “Another Party” they were then asked to specify. Northern Irish parties were prompted in a random order for respondents living in Northern Ireland.
25		As an additional step, respondents who replied “undecided” and “refused” were then removed from the sample.
26		All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
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28	Sample Size	Question presentation
29	10,334	All data tables are shown in full, in the order and wording put to respondents, including but not limited to all tables relating to published data and all relevant tables preceding them.
30		Tables for demographic questions might not be included but these should be clear from the cross-breaks on published tables.
31		In all questions where the responses are a list of parties, names or statements, these will typically have been displayed to respondents in a randomising order.
32		The only questions which would not have had randomising responses would be those in which there was a natural order to maintain
33		– e.g. a list of numbers from 0 to 10 or questions which had factual rather than opinion-related answers such as demographic information. “Other”, “Don't know” and “Refused” responses are not randomised.
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35		Not all questions will have necessarily been asked to all respondents – this is because they may be follow-on questions from previous questions or only appropriate to certain demographic groups.
36		Lower response counts should make clear where this has occurred.
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38		Data were analysed and weighted by Survation.
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40		For further information please contact:
41		researchteam@survation.com
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43		If you are interested in commissioning a poll from us, please contact researchteam@survation.com for a prompt response to your enquiry.
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48		Follow us on twitter: @Survation
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50		Survation is a Market Research Society company partner. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
51		http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org
52		Survation Ltd Registered in England & Wales Number 07143509
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