Vergleich Prognosemodelle FIFA Weltmeisterschaft 2014
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4
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Round 16GroupGameGSGIZeileisFTEGrollElo+RE
4
BrazilA199.0%75.9%#REF!99.4%93.0%83.7%
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MexicoA536.2%37.2%#REF!39.8%32.4%52.1%
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ChileB129.1%47.0%#REF!69.5%43.5%57.6%
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Netherlands
B574.6%51.1%#REF!42.8%54.0%53.3%
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ColombiaC259.7%49.7%#REF!77.9%64.4%64.3%
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GreeceC660.6%51.2%#REF!39.2%40.5%43.9%
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UruguayD257.5%51.7%#REF!64.8%59.4%59.3%
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Costa RicaD619.2%40.4%#REF!26.2%11.1%33.1%
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FranceE360.3%59.9%#REF!79.7%62.1%61.5%
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Switzerland
E750.3%49.8%#REF!44.6%72.3%49.7%
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NigeriaF330.0%39.3%#REF!31.7%41.5%34.8%
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ArgentinaF792.4%67.8%#REF!92.8%92.2%78.4%
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GermanyG485.0%72.8%#REF!88.1%89.1%77.1%
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USAG841.0%34.9%#REF!32.3%24.2%46.6%
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BelgiumH461.8%62.4%#REF!76.9%89.1%65.8%
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AlgeriaH824.6%40.9%#REF!20.3%40.5%36.6%
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Product R16
1.38E-051.86E-05#REF!2.84E-051.63E-055.36E-05
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Quarter-Finals
GroupGameGSGIZeileisFTEGrollElo+RE
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BrazilA178.8%45.8%#REF!80.5%72.9%54.8%
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Netherlands
B240.5%24.8%#REF!13.9%20.7%29.3%
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FranceE331.0%32.4%#REF!45.2%35.1%32.6%
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Costa RicaD47.7%19.3%#REF!10.0%3.0%13.4%
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ColombiaC526.7%23.3%#REF!45.8%29.9%33.7%
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GermanyG670.5%47.7%#REF!68.4%74.0%60.4%
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BelgiumH725.9%30.9%#REF!35.2%48.6%27.8%
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ArgentinaF874.8%39.4%#REF!67.0%60.9%54.1%
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Product QF
2.78E-049.61E-05#REF!3.74E-041.05E-042.14E-04
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Product Total
3.85E-091.79E-09#REF!1.06E-081.72E-091.15E-08
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6
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Semi-Final
GroupGameGSGIZeileisFTEGrollElo+RE
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BrazilA171.7%31.1%#REF!69.8%62.0%40.6%
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ArgentinaF255.9%20.9%#REF!46.8%28.8%33.5%
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GermanyG351.6%31.3%#REF!44.9%59.1%43.0%
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Netherlands
B428.1%13.9%#REF!7.3%12.5%17.7%
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Product SF5.81%0.28%#REF!1.07%1.32%1.03%
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Product Total
2.23E-105.05E-12#REF!1.14E-102.28E-111.18E-10
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7
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FinalGroupGameGSGIZeileisFTEGrollElo+RE
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Germany20.8%19.0%#REF!19.7%40.1%25.8%
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Argentina34.3%10.9%#REF!28.2%15.5%18.8%
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Product Final
7.13%2.07%#REF!5.55%6.23%4.85%
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Product Total
1.59E-111.05E-13#REF!6.32E-121.42E-125.75E-12
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8
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WinnerGroupGameGSGIZeileisFTEGrollElo+RE
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#N/A#N/A#REF!#N/A#N/A#N/A
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Product Total
#N/A#N/A#REF!#N/A#N/A#N/A
55
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Actual
Further_Analyses
Goldman Sachs
Goalimpact
Zeileis et al.
FiveThirtyEight
Groll_Schauberger
ELO+RE
Team_Codes