|1. Use this link to copy this spreadsheet to your Google Drive account:
|2. Enter your predictions
|Enter a prediction that's as specific and unambiguous as possible, a rationale for the prediction, and the estimated likelihood of the prediction coming true.
|Note: The Calibration sheet displays your accuracy for confidence levels in ranges of 10%, from 0%–100%. The accuracy of exact confidence levels can be displayed in the Advanced Filter Table. The Predictions sheet supports very specific confidence levels, like 99.55%, which have been shown to increase accuracy.
|3. Enter supporting data
|Add a unique prediction number for easy reference, assign a category, and enter a creation and due date. Better Predictions will remind you when the prediction is ready to be judged. You will be able to filter your prediction accuracy based on many of these fields.
|4. Judge your predictions
|Once a prediction is due, the Need to Review column will be marked as Yes and colored blue for that specific prediction. A prediction's True? column must be marked as Yes or No in order for it to be used to calculate your accuracy.
|5. Evaluate your forecasting ability
|The Calibration sheet allows you to determine how accurate you are when you give a certain confidence level, such as 60%. If you are perfectly accurate, if you make 100 predictions and assign a 60% probability for all of those predictions, roughly 60 out of those 100 predictions should come true.
|Note: The Advanced Filter Table lets you filter your prediction accuracy by when you made certain predictions, how far in the future you are forecasting, and what types/domains of predictions you are making. This can help you tell if you are improving over time, whether how far ahead you are forecasting affects your accuracy, and whether you are better at making certain types of predictions.
|6. Consider pairing Better Predictions with Better Decisions
|Predictions can be inputs to decisions, like predicting investment performance to decide what to invest in, as well as outputs of decisions, such as predicting the consequences of a decision that do not affect the decision itself. We recommend pairing Better Predictions with Better Decisions for optimal decision making. Each decision in Better Decisions has a unique ID, allowing multiple decisions to be referenced in the same prediction or the same decision to be referenced across multiple predictions, and vice versa.
|Tips: Move the Start Here sheet to the right so that the main sheets load first. This sheet’s time zone is set to GMT–8:00 (Pacific) and can be adjusted by following the instructions here.
Want to share this sheet or download the latest updates? https://www.better.so/docs/better-predictions
|Questions? Comments? Feedback? firstname.lastname@example.org