Global_Smartphone_Demand_Model_2022-2029.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	G	J	N	O
1	Global Smartphone Demand Model — 2022 to 2029
2	Units, revenue, regional/OEM mix, and the 2026 memory-cost demand shock \| Built from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley equity research plus Creative Strategies proprietary memory research
3
4
5	2025A Units			2026E Units (YoY)	2026E YoY Growth	2029E Units (CS est.)
6	1,264.0			1,140.0	(9.8%)	1,193.8
7
8
9
10	Base case: Goldman Sachs, 20-Jun-2026. See Scenarios tab for Bear (Morgan Stanley) / Bull (GS prior est.) ranges and a Creative Strategies 20%-decline stress test for 2026E.
11
12	Global Unit Shipments & YoY Growth, 2022–2029
13	Year	Units (m)	YoY %				Year	YoY %
14	2022	1,193.4	(11.0%)				2022	(11.0%)
15	2023	1,141.9	(4.3%)				2023	(4.3%)
16	2024	1,223.2	7.1%				2024	7.1%
17	2025	1,264.0	3.3%				2025	3.3%
18	2026	1,140.0	(9.8%)				2026	(9.8%)
19	2027	1,170.0	2.6%				2027	2.6%
20	2028	1,182.0	1.0%				2028	1.0%
21	2029	1,193.8	1.0%				2029	1.0%
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39	Scenario Comparison — Global Units, 2025–2029
40	Year	Bear	Base	Bull
41	2025	1,264.0	1,264.0	1,264.0
42	2026	1,099.7	1,137.6	1,188.2
43	2027	1,132.7	1,171.7	1,211.9
44	2028	1,144.0	1,183.4	1,236.2
45	2029	1,155.4	1,195.3	1,260.9
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100