Forecast F2P Epic Loot Hunters RPG.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N
1
2	Epic Loot Hunters forecast Year 1 China NOT included
3				MONTHLY					Of those who pay
4			Retention rate	80%		DAU/MAU	0.300		Whales	Dolphins	Minnows
5			Churn rate	20%		Conversion to Pay User	3.0%	Split	1.0%	19.0%	20.0%
6			Duration	5 months		Platform share	0.0%	ARPPU	77.00	20.00	2.00
7
8			UA Investment	189,000.00
9						PC Promotion Downloads	200000		Ads Profit per user	0.03
10			%Inomes to Marketing	20.0%		Base Downloads	400000
11			CPI	2.00		Decrease Base	10%
12			Organics Factor	3.00
13			Effective CPI	$0.67
14			Transaction amount	$1.00
15			Transactions quantity	3
16					Boost Update		Boost Update		Boost Update		Boost Update		Boost Update
17		Update			30000		30000		30000		30000		30000
18		Month	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
19		New users or Retained	483,500	501,458	707,756	852,696	1,076,175	1,289,689	1,590,715	1,899,432	2,316,323	2,766,179	3,354,978	4,014,220
20		Returning users		386,800	710,606	1,134,690	1,589,909	2,132,867	2,738,045	3,463,008	4,289,952	5,285,020	6,440,959	7,836,750
21		Churned users		96,700	177,652	283,672	397,477	533,217	684,511	865,752	1,072,488	1,321,255	1,610,240	1,959,187
22		MAUs	483,500	888,258	1,418,362	1,987,386	2,666,084	3,422,556	4,328,760	5,362,440	6,606,275	8,051,199	9,795,937	11,850,970
23
24		DAUs	145,050	266,477	425,509	596,216	799,825	1,026,767	1,298,628	1,608,732	1,981,883	2,415,360	2,938,781	3,555,291
25		DAU/MAU	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30
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28		Conversion rate	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
29		# of purchasers per day	4,352	7,994	12,765	17,886	23,995	30,803	38,959	48,262	59,456	72,461	88,163	106,659
30		# of purchasers per month	130,545	239,830	382,958	536,594	719,843	924,090	1,168,765	1,447,859	1,783,694	2,173,824	2,644,903	3,199,762
31
32		Revenue
33		Whales	100,519.65	184,668.75	294,877.54	413,177.54	554,278.88	711,549.40	899,949.14	1,114,851.18	1,373,444.58	1,673,844.21	2,036,575.30	2,463,816.67
34		Dolphins	496,071.00	911,352.29	1,455,239.82	2,039,058.00	2,735,402.25	3,511,542.50	4,441,307.45	5,501,862.97	6,778,038.21	8,260,529.87	10,050,631.35	12,159,095.26
35		Minnows	52,218.00	95,931.82	153,183.14	214,637.68	287,937.08	369,636.05	467,506.05	579,143.47	713,477.71	869,529.46	1,057,961.20	1,279,904.76
36		IAP Cross revenue	648,808.65	1,191,952.87	1,903,300.51	2,666,873.23	3,577,618.20	4,592,727.95	5,808,762.64	7,195,857.63	8,864,960.50	10,803,903.54	13,145,167.85	15,902,816.70
37													IAP Year one:	76,302,750.25
38		Ads Net Revenue	14,505.00	15,043.73	21,232.69	25,580.88	32,285.26	38,690.66	47,721.45	56,982.95	69,489.70	82,985.36	100,649.34	120,426.61
39		Transactions revenue	130,545.00	239,829.55	382,957.85	536,594.21	719,842.70	924,090.13	1,168,765.12	1,447,858.68	1,783,694.27	2,173,823.65	2,644,902.99	3,199,761.91
40													Ads Year one:	625,593.64
41		Cross Revenue	793,858.65	1,446,826.15	2,307,491.04	3,229,048.32	4,329,746.16	5,555,508.74	7,025,249.20	8,700,699.26	10,718,144.47	13,060,712.55	15,890,720.18	19,223,005.22
42													Cross Year one:	92,281,009.94
43		Expenses
44		Marketing Investment	189,000.00	120,971.73	265,170.88	408,464.03	564,116.86	753,125.86	960,476.58	1,212,954.53	1,497,548.95	1,844,119.10	2,243,318.69	2,729,480.30
45													MK Year one:	12,788,747.50
46
47		Net revenue	604,858.65	1,325,854.42	2,042,320.16	2,820,584.29	3,765,629.30	4,802,382.88	6,064,772.63	7,487,744.73	9,220,595.52	11,216,593.44	13,647,401.49	16,493,524.93
48													Year one:	79,492,262.44
49
50		Analysis
51		ARPU	1.64	1.63	1.63	1.62	1.62	1.62	1.62	1.62	1.62	1.62	1.62	1.62
52		ARPPU	6.08	6.03	6.03	6.02	6.01	6.01	6.01	6.01	6.01	6.01	6.01	6.01
53
54		Percentage of revenue from each customer grouping
55		Whales	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%
56		Dolphins	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%
57		Minnows	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%
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