Cumulative Impact Assessment (2014)
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Counting the Cuts
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Version 1 of a Cumulative Impact Assessment of UK Government Policy
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This is my fourth analysis of the UK government's spending plans and policies and their financial impact on disabled people and people in poverty. The first was carried out in 2011 as part of the launch of the Campaign for a Fair Society (Duffy, 2011). The second was published as an appendix to the Campaign's "Manifesto 2012" and the third was published in the report: "A Fair Society? how the cuts target disabled people" (Campaign for a Fair Society, 2012; Duffy, 2013). These reports and all the other documents used to produce this analysis are listed on the References sheet (see tabs below).
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Every effort has been made to make each analysis fair and accurate. I suspect that many feel, when they see the figures, that they cannot be accurate. It feels implausible that such severe cuts would be targeted on people who are often already disadvantaged. Nevertheless these are the facts. The likely explanation for this targeting is set out within "A Fair Society?" (Duffy, 2013) and I will not repeat these arguments here.
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The UK government currently claims it is impossible to make an analysis of the cumulative impact of the cuts and the other policy changes that impact disabled people. This is an extraordinary claim. It implies that although we pay billions of pounds for politicians and civil servants they cannot estimate the impact of their own policies. Instead the sad truth seems to be that that any analysis would demonstrate the unfairness of government policies. This data demonstrates that a cumulative impact asessment is possible.
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This work has been carried out pro bono, but on behalf of the Campaign for a Fair Society. I am grateful for all the helpful comments and thanks that I have recieved from disabled people and campaigners. I hope that this work will inspire a foundation, agency or university to take over this important task. I have published all of the workings online in the hope that it will encourage others to improve on my own efforts.
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Dr Simon Duffy
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The Centre for Welfare Reform
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To read a summary of these findings - Counting the Cuts - go to: http://bit.ly/counting-cuts
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Since publication I have improved this data further. Version 2 can be found here: http://bit.ly/cuts-data2
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Introduction
Method
1. Central Spending
2. Social Care
3. Benefits
4. Cumulative Impact
A PESA 2013 Nominal
B PESA 2013 Real
C DCLG Data 2013
D Children Social Care CIPFA
E DWP Benefit Data 2013 Nominal
F DWP Benefit Data Real
References