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Probabilities in EU Macroeconomics
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ThemeSub ThemeQuestion
Historical Percentile Range
Bounds12 Oct 202321 Sep 202331 Aug 20236 Jul 202314 Jun 202318 May 20234 May 202313 Apr 202323 Mar 20239 Mar 202316 Feb 20232 Feb 202319 Jan 20238 Dec 202224 Nov 202210 Nov 202227 Oct 202213 Oct 20226 Oct 202222 Sep 20228 Sep 202226 Aug 202212 Aug 202228 Jul 202214 Jul 202230 Jun 202216 Jun 20222 Jun 202218 May 20224 May 202221 Apr 20227 Apr 202224 Mar 202210 Mar 202224 Feb 202210 Feb 20222 Feb 202220 Jan 20226 Jan 20229 Dec 202110 Oct 020221 Oct 20216 Oct 2021
334
EconomicsEU InflationEA19 Inflation rate Oct-23: What will be the euro area estimated monthly inflation rate for October 2023?<1%a. Below -1.04%0%0.71%0.84%
335
1% - 5%b. -1.04% to -0.60%1%2.83%3.37%
336
5% - 10%c. -0.59% to -0.35%1%3.54%4.21%
337
10% - 20%d. -0.34% to -0.08%3%12.16%14.45%
338
20% - 35%e. -0.07% to 0.07%7%21.58%18.26%
339
35% - 65%f. 0.08% to 0.28%47%28.57%29.43%
340
65% - 80%g. 0.29% to 0.39%28%16.43%12.62%
341
80% - 90%h. 0.40% to 0.55%11%7.08%8.41%
342
90% - 95%i. 0.56% to 0.70%1%3.54%4.21%
343
95% - 99%j. 0.71% to 1.18%1%2.83%3.37%
344
99%<k. Above 1.18%0%0.71%0.84%
345
EconomicsEU InflationEA19 Inflation rate Nov-23: What will be the euro area estimated monthly inflation rate for November 2023?<1%a. Below -1.04%1%
346
1% - 5%b. -1.04% to -0.60%2%
347
5% - 10%c. -0.59% to -0.35%3%
348
10% - 20%d. -0.34% to -0.08%6%
349
20% - 35%e. -0.07% to 0.07%15%
350
35% - 65%f. 0.08% to 0.28%33%
351
65% - 80%g. 0.29% to 0.39%13%
352
80% - 90%h. 0.40% to 0.55%17%
353
90% - 95%i. 0.56% to 0.70%7%
354
95% - 99%j. 0.71% to 1.18%2%
355
99%<k. Above 1.18%1%
356
EconomicsEU InflationEA19 Inflation rate 2023: What will be the euro area estimated annual inflation rate for 2023?<1%a. Below 0.79%0%0.13%0.13%0.21%0.68%0.95%1.04%1.09%1.49%2.53%3.96%6.11%0.20%
357
1% - 5%b. 0.79% to 0.93%0%0.14%0.14%0.23%0.75%1.05%1.15%1.20%1.64%2.80%4.38%6.76%0.81%
358
5% - 10%c. 0.94% to 1.09%0%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.04%0.06%0.07%0.07%0.10%0.16%0.25%0.39%1.01%
359
10% - 20%d. 1.10% to 1.81%0%0.07%0.07%0.11%0.37%0.51%0.56%0.59%0.80%1.37%2.14%3.30%8.47%
360
20% - 35%e. 1.82% to 1.94%0%0.02%0.02%0.04%0.13%0.18%0.20%0.21%0.29%0.49%0.76%1.18%3.03%
361
35% - 65%f. 1.95% to 2.50%0%0.40%0.40%0.64%2.13%2.97%3.25%3.39%6.60%11.25%9.71%4.72%12.09%
362
65% - 80%g. 2.51% to 2.67%0%0.37%0.37%0.58%1.93%2.70%2.95%3.08%4.21%7.18%4.33%6.69%5.40%
363
80% - 90%h. 2.68% to 3.05%0%0.48%0.48%0.77%2.54%3.55%12.28%7.30%9.98%17.02%17.16%16.89%30.75%
364
90% - 95%i. 3.06% to 3.40%1%2.78%2.78%4.44%5.12%7.15%16.72%6.73%9.21%15.70%16.12%24.91%22.45%
365
95% - 99%j. 3.41% to 3.59%2%4.26%4.26%6.79%12.25%8.10%8.87%4.74%6.48%11.05%9.90%15.29%4.24%
366
99%<k. Above 3.59%96%91.34%91.34%86.19%74.04%72.77%52.91%71.61%59.19%30.44%31.28%13.75%11.56%
411
EconomicsEU GDPEA19 GDP Q3 2023: What will be the change in GDP growth in the Euro area (EA19) for Q3 2023?<1%a. Below -3.46%1%1.44%1.96%3.56%3.39%4.14%4.42%
412
1% - 5%b. -3.46% to -0.42%1%2.01%2.73%4.98%6.74%8.23%8.80%
413
5% - 10%c. -0.41% to -0.30%4%5.21%7.08%12.89%12.25%14.97%9.10%
414
10% - 20%d. -0.29% to 0.08%54%57.61%41.59%30.58%32.01%16.96%18.13%
415
20% - 35%e. 0.09% to 0.27%15%12.28%16.66%11.72%11.14%13.60%14.54%
416
35% - 65%f. 0.28% to 0.55%15%12.07%16.37%11.47%10.90%13.32%14.24%
417
65% - 80%g. 0.56% to 0.71%2%2.69%3.65%6.65%6.32%7.72%8.26%
418
80% - 90%h. 0.72% to 0.98%4%2.78%4.66%8.49%8.07%9.85%10.53%
419
90% - 95%i. 0.99% to 1.14%1%1.44%1.96%3.56%3.39%4.14%4.42%
420
95% - 99%j. 1.15% to 2.18%1%1.44%1.96%3.56%3.39%4.14%4.42%
421
99%<k. Above 2.18%1%1.02%1.38%2.52%2.40%2.93%3.13%
422
EconomicsEU GDPEA19 GDP Q4 2023: What will be the change in GDP growth in the Euro area (EA19) for Q4 2023?<1%a. Below -3.46%0%0.35%0.43%
423
1% - 5%b. -3.46% to -0.42%1%1.42%1.73%
424
5% - 10%c. -0.41% to -0.30%4%1.77%2.16%
425
10% - 20%d. -0.29% to 0.08%26%3.54%4.33%
426
20% - 35%e. 0.09% to 0.27%29%39.38%25.95%
427
35% - 65%f. 0.28% to 0.55%29%38.53%47.07%
428
65% - 80%g. 0.56% to 0.71%6%7.92%9.68%
429
80% - 90%h. 0.72% to 0.98%3%3.54%4.33%
430
90% - 95%i. 0.99% to 1.14%1%1.77%2.16%
431
95% - 99%j. 1.15% to 2.18%1%1.42%1.73%
432
99%<k. Above 2.18%0%0.35%0.43%
433
EconomicsEU GDPEA19 GDP Q4 2023: What will be the annual change in real GDP in the Euro area (EA19) in Q4 2023?<1%a. Below -2.18%0%0.21%0.24%0.38%0.38%0.46%0.46%0.46%0.46%0.46%0.46%0.77%
434
1% - 5%b. -2.18% to -0.90%1%0.84%0.96%1.54%1.51%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%3.06%
435
5% - 10%c. -0.89% to -0.52%9%10.28%11.74%18.73%20.02%2.31%2.31%2.31%2.31%2.31%2.31%3.83%
436
10% - 20%d. -0.51% to 0.45%24%27.50%17.15%17.07%16.80%20.52%20.52%20.52%20.52%20.52%20.52%13.30%
437
20% - 35%e. 0.46% to 1.12%39%37.30%42.62%18.78%18.48%22.57%22.57%22.57%22.57%22.57%22.57%22.80%
438
35% - 65%f. 1.13% to 1.54%12%6.32%7.22%11.52%11.33%13.84%13.84%13.84%13.84%13.84%13.84%22.98%
439
65% - 80%g. 1.55% to 2.06%6%7.25%8.29%13.21%13.00%15.88%15.88%15.88%15.88%15.88%15.88%17.94%
440
80% - 90%h. 2.07% to 2.64%4%6.17%7.05%11.24%11.06%13.51%13.51%13.51%13.51%13.51%13.51%7.66%
441
90% - 95%i. 2.65% to 2.88%1%1.05%1.20%1.92%1.89%2.31%2.31%2.31%2.31%2.31%2.31%3.83%
442
95% - 99%j. 2.89% to 3.10%1%0.84%0.96%1.54%1.51%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%3.06%
443
99%<k. Above 3.10%2%2.24%2.56%4.08%4.01%4.90%4.90%4.90%4.90%4.90%4.90%0.77%
730
EconomicsEU Retail TradeEA19 Retail trade Sep-23: What will be the month-on-month change in retail trade in September 2023 for the Euro area?<1%a. Below -3.94%0%0.57%
731
1% - 5%b. -3.94% to -1.22%1%2.29%
732
5% - 10%c. -1.21% to -0.76%2%2.86%
733
10% - 20%d. -0.75% to -0.39%8%5.32%
734
20% - 35%e. -0.38% to 0.00%15%13.08%
735
35% - 65%f. 0.01% to 0.45%33%34.05%
736
65% - 80%g. 0.46% to 0.76%28%30.37%
737
80% - 90%h. 0.77% to 1.08%9%5.73%
738
90% - 95%i. 1.09% to 1.46%2%2.86%
739
95% - 99%j. 1.47% to 4.22%1%2.29%
740
99%<k. Above 4.22%0%0.57%
741
EconomicsEU Retail TradeEA19 Retail trade Oct-23: What will be the month-on-month change in retail trade in October 2023 for the Euro area?<1%a. Below -3.94%1%
742
1% - 5%b. -3.94% to -1.22%3%
743
5% - 10%c. -1.21% to -0.76%4%
744
10% - 20%d. -0.75% to -0.39%8%
745
20% - 35%e. -0.38% to 0.00%11%
746
35% - 65%f. 0.01% to 0.45%35%
747
65% - 80%g. 0.46% to 0.76%22%
748
80% - 90%h. 0.77% to 1.08%8%
749
90% - 95%i. 1.09% to 1.46%4%
750
95% - 99%j. 1.47% to 4.22%3%
751
99%<k. Above 4.22%1%
752
EconomicsEU Retail TradeEA19 Retail trade 2023: What will be the annual change in retail trade in 2023 for the Euro area?<1%a. Below -1.77%13%3.62%3.62%5.16%7.12%7.12%7.12%7.12%7.12%0.72%0.82%6.11%
753
1% - 5%b. -1.77% to -0.52%12%9.88%9.88%14.08%2.68%2.68%2.68%2.68%2.68%2.87%3.27%6.76%
754
5% - 10%c. -0.51% to 0.12%9%6.75%6.75%9.61%3.35%3.35%3.35%3.35%3.35%3.58%4.09%0.39%
755
10% - 20%d. 0.13% to 0.71%11%8.52%8.52%12.14%6.70%6.70%6.70%6.70%6.70%7.17%8.19%3.30%
756
20% - 35%e. 0.72% to 1.52%33%39.41%39.41%23.28%10.05%10.05%10.05%10.05%10.05%10.75%12.28%1.18%
757
35% - 65%f. 1.53% to 2.62%12%17.29%17.29%15.02%25.39%25.39%25.39%25.39%25.39%27.14%31.01%4.72%
758
65% - 80%g. 2.63% to 3.09%3%4.78%4.78%6.81%15.70%15.70%15.70%15.70%15.70%16.78%12.28%6.69%
759
80% - 90%h. 3.10% to 3.96%4%5.38%5.38%7.67%17.68%17.68%17.68%17.68%17.68%18.89%14.22%16.89%
760
90% - 95%i. 3.97% to 4.39%1%1.02%1.02%1.45%3.35%3.35%3.35%3.35%3.35%3.58%4.09%24.91%