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投资逻辑
第一阶段投资靠增长带来的市场预期,第二阶段投资靠利润带来的价值。

1. 外卖业务的定位是美团的(用户)增长引擎,目前(2021年)已经实现单元经济,首先看用户数增长,再看订单量、GMV的增长。用户增长遇瓶颈后需关注外卖本身对利润的贡献。
2. 到店业务的定位是变现业务,关注从平台引流(用户)能力,实现订单量、GMV、利润和合作商家数的增长。
3. 新业务需要成为美团新的(用户)增长引擎,分3阶段看:第一阶段是否能够带来用户增长。第二阶段是否能实现单元经济。第三阶段是否能贡献利润。
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美团财报数据2018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q1趋势
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收入(百万)15073.0019076.0019803.0019174.0022703.8727494.3928,159.0716,753.4824,721.8435,401.6637,918.0037,018.5643,759.2348,829.3749,523.13
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Growth(YoY)----50.63%44.13%42.20%-12.62%8.89%28.76%34.66%120.96%77.01%37.93%30.61%
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餐饮外卖收入8908.0011172.0011006.0010706.0012845.0015577.0015,715.719,490.4014,544.1020,692.8221,537.9920,575.4123,125.0826,484.6426,126.64
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Growth(YoY)----44.20%39.43%42.79%-11.35%13.23%32.84%37.05%116.80%59.00%27.99%21.30%
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到店、酒店及旅游收入3673.004436.004594.004492.005245.006181.106,356.953,095.004,543.986,478.087,135.366,584.398,602.188,621.338,722.43
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Growth(YoY)----42.80%39.34%38.38%-31.10%-13.37%4.80%12.25%112.74%89.31%33.08%22.24%
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新业务及其他收入2492.003468.004203.003976.004613.005735.506,085.604,168.505,633.768,230.399,244.169,856.4612,031.9713,723.4014,674.07
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Growth(YoY)----85.11%65.38%44.79%4.84%22.13%43.50%51.90%136.45%113.57%66.74%58.74%
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2018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q1
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销售成本(百万)12232.0014505.0015322.0014105.0014762.0017901.3018440.1211557.4216146.9024578.2728461.8029816.1031245.8638051.3837540.53
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销售成本/收入81.15%76.04%77.37%73.56%65.02%65.11%65.49%68.99%65.31%69.43%75.06%80.54%71.40%77.93%75.80%#DIV/0!
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餐饮外卖------12928.77--------
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到店、酒店及旅游------714.45--------
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新业务及其他------4796.90--------
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营业费用总额(百万)6551.007947.009363.006817.007219.008808.108821.456565.607707.1010220.8112875.4812421.1016802.4518490.8918256.95
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销售及营销开支3868.004622.004535.003706.004149.005614.805349.103199.404172.305835.577675.347206.4110848.6311388.2311239.90
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研发开支1704.002003.001982.002036.002032.002137.302239.892296.502376.702970.123249.203477.293900.794715.554581.96
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一般及行政开支979.001322.002846.001075.001038.001056.001232.471069.701158.101415.121950.941737.402053.022387.122435.08
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营业费用/收入43.46%41.66%47.28%35.55%31.80%32.04%31.33%39.19%31.18%28.87%33.96%33.55%38.40%37.87%36.87%#DIV/0!
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销售及营销开支/收入25.66%24.23%22.90%19.33%18.27%20.42%19.00%19.10%16.88%16.48%20.24%19.47%24.79%23.32%22.70%#DIV/0!
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研发开支/收入11.30%10.50%10.01%10.62%8.95%7.77%7.95%13.71%9.61%8.39%8.57%9.39%8.91%9.66%9.25%#DIV/0!
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一般及行政开支/收入6.50%6.93%14.37%5.61%4.57%3.84%4.38%6.38%4.68%4.00%5.15%4.69%4.69%4.89%4.92%#DIV/0!
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2018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q1
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经营利润/亏损(百万)-2,853-10,102.63-5,005.86
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餐饮外卖882.352876.1031,735.58
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到店、酒店及旅游2,821.943,784.073,897
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新业务及其他-6,002.83-10,906.09-10,205.24
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未分配项目-554.152-3,856.72-433.21
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2018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q1
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GMV(十亿)123.70145.70138.00138.40159.20194.60189.90--------
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餐饮外卖68.2080.0080.2075.6093.10111.90112.1071.50108.80152.23156.29142.7173.6197.1188.62
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到店、酒店及旅游42.5049.3044.7046.4051.3063.9060.40--------
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新业务及其他13.0016.4013.1016.4014.8018.8017.40--------
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2018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q1
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12个月交易用戶数(百万)356.90382.30400.40411.80422.60435.80450.50448.60457.30476.50510.60569.3628.4667.5690.5
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Growth(YoY)----18.41%13.99%12.51%8.94%8.21%9.34%13.34%26.91%37.42%40.08%35.23%
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过去两年活跃用户年化增速--------13.20%11.64%12.93%17.58%21.94%23.76%23.80%
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12个月活跃商家数(百万)5.105.55.85.85.95.95.56.16.36.56.87.17.78.38.8
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Growth(YoY)----15.69%7.27%-5.17%5.17%6.78%10.17%23.64%16.39%22.22%27.69%29.41%
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过去两年活跃商家年化增速--------11.14%8.71%8.28%10.64%14.24%18.61%26.49%
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每位交易用戶平均每年交易笔数21.4022.723.824.825.526.527.426.225.726.828.130.532.834.435.8
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餐饮外卖交易笔数(百万)1549.201787.501832.301662.602085.102469.102505.301374.502228.903212.703331.302902.73541.44,013.003910.60
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每笔盈利0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.260.000.000.220.44#DIV/0!
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国内酒店间夜量(百万)72.9076.174.478.694.0109.8110.042.878.0113.9119.7101.0140.8119.8115.3
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2018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q1
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总股本(亿)384384385395.00
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营收(百万)15,073.0019,076.0019,803.0019,174.0022,703.8727,494.3928,159.0716,753.4824,721.8435,401.6637,918.0037,018.5643,759.2348,829.3749,523.13
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净利润(百万)-7716.00-83297.16-3414.25-1433.33876.001333.381460.29-1,579.282,210.186,321.00-2,244.29-4,846.26-3,356.38-9,994.41-5,339.15
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经营现金流(百万)---9179.82-3280.85545.342609.275574.22-5,038.905,584.233,298.458,475.01-4,430.132,880.43-4,042.46-4,011.46
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物业、厂房及设备(百万)-----5376.225,270.307,445.6312,923.5413,917.1713,696.6214,609.5922,493.6722,814.25
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无形资产(百万)-----32699.5832,411.3932,162.8231,879.2431,676.3831,482.4531,302.2331,108.1531,048.81
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资本开支(百万)
Property, equipment and software, net
------394.101,926.765,194.33790.77-414.48732.767,690.00261.24-53863.06
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自由现金流(百万)
自由现金流 ≈ 经营现金流 - 资本开支
-#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!-4,644.803,657.48-1,895.887,684.25-4,015.652,147.68-11,732.46-4,272.7053863.06
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2018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q1
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过去三年营收年化增速------------42.66%36.79%35.74%-100.00%
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过去三年净利润年化增速-------------24.23%-50.68%16.07%-100.00%
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过去三年经营现金流年化增速------------#VALUE!#VALUE!-24.11%-100.00%
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过去三年自由现金流年化增速------------#DIV/0!#VALUE!#DIV/0!#VALUE!
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过去三年平均净利润-------------7360.47-7535.73-1538.96-1382.69
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