Candidates to watch Nov 6 2018 - https://theincorruptibles.us
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legend -->Green=won; red=lostGreen=better; red=worse
outline = notable; green = flipped red to blue; light green = now within 6 points; white on green = TI
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StateRaceCandidateResultsCompared to 2016Difference 2016-2018just winners in HouseNotes
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ArizonaAZ-03Raul Grijalva98% reporting, up by 23 pointsIn 2014 Grijalva won by 11 points1212incumbent
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ArizonaGovernorDavid Garcia99% reporting, down by 17 pointsIn 2014 Dem lost by 12 points-5
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CaliforniaCA-01Audrey Denney
100% reporting, down by 13 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 18 points5
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CaliforniaCA-13Barbara Lee100% reporting, up by 75 pointsIn 2016, Lee won by 81 pointsn/a
incumbent; running against Green Party
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CaliforniaCA-17Ro Khanna89% reporting, up by 35 pointsIn 2016, Khanna won by 22 points1313incumbent
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CaliforniaCA-34Kenneth Mejia80% reporting, down by 49 pointsn/an/aGreen vs Dem
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CaliforniaCA-40Rodolfo Cortes Barragan85% reporting, down by 55 pointsIn 2016, Independent lost by 62 pointsn/aGreen vs Dem
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CaliforniaCA-45Katie Porter100% reporting, down by 3 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 17 points14
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CaliforniaCA-49Mike Levin100% reporting, up by 12 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 0.5 points12.512.5
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CaliforniaCA-50Ammar Campa-Najjar67% reporting, down by 8 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 27 points19
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CaliforniaSenateKevin DeLeon85% reporting, down by 9 pointsIn 2012, Feinstein won by 25 points16
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ColoradoCO-02Joe Neguse26In 2016, Dem won by 19 points77
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ColoradoCO-05Stephany Rose Spaulding76% reporting, down by 20 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 32 points12
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ConnecticutCT-05Jahana Hayes96% reporting, up by 12 pointsIn 2016, Dem won by 16 points-4-4
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FloridaFL-08Sanjay Patel95% reporting, down by 20 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 31 points11
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FloridaGovernorAndrew Gillum99% counted, down by 1 pointsIn 2014, Dem lost by 1 point0
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GeorgiaGA-01Lisa Ring100% down by 16 points
In 2016 R was unopposed; in 2014 Dem lost by 22 points
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GeorgiaGA-06Lucy McBath100% reporting, up by 1 pointIn 2016, Dem lost by 23 points2424
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GeorgiaGovernorStacey Abrahams100% reporting, down by 2 pointsIn 2014, Dem lost by 8 points6
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HawaiiHI-02Tulsi Gabbard100% reporting, up by 55 pointsIn 2016, Gabbard was up by 63 points88incumbent
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HawaiiSenateMazie Hirono100% reporting, up by 55 pointsIn 2012, Hirono won by 25 points30incumbent
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IdahoGovernorPaulette Jordan96% reporting, down by 21 pointsIn 2014, Dem lost by 15 points-6
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IllinoisIL-04Chuy Jesus Garcia98% reporting, up by 73 pointsIn 2016, Dem incumbent won by 50 points2323
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IllinoisIL-14Lauren Underwood100% reporting, up by 4 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 29 points3333
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IndianaIN-09Liz Watson75% reporting, down by 20 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 14 points-6
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IowaIA-04JD Scholten100% reporting, down by 3 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 23 points20
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KansasKS-04James Thompson
100% reporting, down by 19 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 31 points12
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KentuckyKY-01Paul Walker
100% reporting, down by 37 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 45 points8
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LouisianaLA-04Ryan Trundle
100% reporting, down by 31 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 29 points2
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MarylandGovernorBen Jealous99% reporting, down by 14 pointsIn 2014, Dem lost by 4 points-10
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MarylandMD-08Jamie Raskin100% reporting, up by 35 pointsIn 2016, Raskin up by 6 points2929incumbent
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MassachusettsMA-07Ayanna Pressley0
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MassachusettsSenateElizabeth Warren83% reporting, up by 24 pointsIn 2012, Warren won by 8 points16incumbent
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MichiganGovernorGretchen Whitmer93% reporting, up by 9 pointsIn 2014, Dem lost by 4 points13
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MichiganMI-01Matt Morgan99% reporting, down by 12 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 14 points2
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MichiganMI-02Robert Davidson90% reporting, down by 11 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 30 points19
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MichiganMI-13Rashida Tlaib74% reporting, up by 80 pointsIn 2016, Dem incumbent won by 61 points1919
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MinnesotaMN-05Ilhan Omar100% reporting, up by 56 pointsIn 2016, Dem incumbent won by 47 points99
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MississippiSenateMike Espy94% reporting, down by 1 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 17 points16
There will be a runoff on November 27th
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MissouriMO-07Jamie Schoolcraft
100% reporting, down by 36 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 40 points4
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NebraskaNE-01Jessica McClure95% reporting, down by 21 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 39 points18
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NebraskaNE-02Kara Eastman98% reporting, down by 3 pointsIn 2016, Dem incumbent lost by 1 point-2
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NevadaSenateJackie Rosen92% reporting, up by 5 pointsIn 2012, Dem lost by 1 point4
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New MexicoNM-01Debra Haaland100% reporting, up by 23 pointsIn 2016, Dem incumbent won by 31 points-8-8
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New YorkNY-02Liuba Grechen Shirley100% reporting, down by 6 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 25 points19
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New YorkNY-14
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
68% reporting, up by 63 pointsIn 2016, Dem incumbent won by 65 points-2-2
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New YorkNY-21Tedra Cobb
100% reporting, down by 15 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 35 points20
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New YorkNY-24Dana Balter100% reporting, down by 6 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 21 points15
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North CarolinaNC-07Dr Kyle Horton94% reporting, down by 13 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 21 points8
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OhioOH-02Jill Schiller99% reporting, down by 17 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 33 points16
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OhioSenateSherrod Brown100% reporting, up by 6 pointsIn 2012, Brown won by 6 points00incumbent
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PennsylvaniaPA-11Jess King97% reporting, down by 18 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 27 pionts9
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South CarolinaSC-03Mary Smith Geren95% reporting, down by 38 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 45 points7
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TennesseeTN-03Danielle Mitchell99% reporting, down by 29 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 38 points9
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TexasSenateBeto O'Roarke96% reporting, down by 1.2 pointsIn 2012, Dem lost by 16 points15
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TexasTX-03Lorie Burch100%, down by 10 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 27 points17
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TexasTX-10Mike Siegel100% , down by 4 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 19 points15
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TexasTX-12Vanessa Adia
100% reporting, down by 29 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 37 points8
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TexasTX-14Adrienne Bell
100% reporting, down by 20 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 23 points3
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TexasTX-16Veronica Escobar100% reporting, up by 43 pointsIn 2014, Beto O'Roarke won by 28 points1515
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TexasTX-23Gina Ortiz-Jones100%, down by 0.3 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 1.3 points1
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TexasTX-26Linsey Fagan100%, down by 20 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 27 points7
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TexasTX-27Eric Holguin100%, down by 23 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 23 points0
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UtahUT-03James Singer56% reporting, down by 38 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 46 points8
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VermontGovernorChristine Hallquist99% reporting, down by 15 pointsIn 2014, Dem won by 1 point-16
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VermontSenateBernie Sanders99% reporting, up by 40 pointsIn 2014, Sanders won by 40 points0incumbent
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VirginiaVA-06Jennifer Lewis
100% reporting, down by 20 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 33 points13
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VirginiaVA-09Anthony Flaccavento
100% reporting, down by 31 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 40 points9
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WashingtonWA-07Pramila Jayapal76% reporting, up by 66 pointsIn 2016, Jayapal won by 12 points5454incumbent
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WashingtonWA-09Sarah Smith57% reporting, down by 40 pointsn/an/a
running against another Dem
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West VirginiaWV-03Richard Ojeda
100% reporting, down by 13 points
In 2016, Dem lost by 43 points30
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WisconsinGovernorTony Evers100% reporting, up by 1.2 pointsIn 2014, Dem lost by 6 points7
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WisconsinSenateTammy Baldwin99% reporting, up by 11 pointsIn 2012, Baldwin won by 6 points5
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WisconsinWI-01Randy Bryce99% reporting, down by 12 pointsIn 2016, Dem lost by 35 points23
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35%Total:1014
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74 races26 wins35% success rate
Progressive Dems averaged 10 points better than their Dem counterparts in 2016 (or previous election)
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70 races
63 did better than previous election
90% did better than previous election
80
90%
81
1 candidate
lost where previously the seat was blue
26wins
82
6 candidates
won where previously the seat was red
20wins in blue districts
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9 candidates
brought the district to within 6 points
6wins in red districts
84
43losses in red districts
85
1loss in blue districts
86
87
9worse
88
110-5 points better
89
175-10 points better
90
9
10-15 points better
91
14
15-20 points better
92
5
20-25 points better
93
5
25-30 points better
94
95
70checksum
96
97
98
99
100
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