A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | |
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1 | GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THIS SHEET | INFORMATION ON THE STATS TAB | |||||||||||||||
2 | This sheet tracks congressional and state legislative races from 1998 to 2022 that both 1) have at least one write-in candidate and 2) ONLY have candidates from either the Republican or Democratic Party. None of these races had only 3rd party candidates or only NPAs. No state executive races, such as governor, fit both of these criteria. The purpose of this sheet is to build evidence for any potential elections in Florida that could have had "fake" write-in candidates that are solely meant to close primaries that would otherwise be open. Even if they were legitimate candidates, this sheet will still demonstrate just how many voters were disenfranchised from primaries. Each regular election year (i.e. even-numbered years for the offices in question), has its own tab. This overview tab will help give you guidance in understanding the data. On this tab is the following information: 1) Data Block 1, Data Block 2, Data Block 3: These describe what data is on the sheet and why they are on here. The yearly tabs are broken up into these blocks. 2) Key: This explains what the highlights on yearly tabs mean. 3) # of Races with a Potential "Fake" Write-In Candidate: This is a chart for quick comparisons of data across years. 4) Relevant Documents and Sources: This lists all the documents and websites used to gather information for the data on this sheet. | Most of the topline and other important statistics can be found on the tab labeled "stats" directly to the right of this tab. The following tables can be found on the stats tab: Disenfranchised voters: The main table that takes up most of the room on the tab. The table contains the numbers of Republican/Democratic/Other voters in the districts on these sheets, the partisan differentials of each race, the numbers and percentages of disenfranchised voters in each race, and the numbers and percentages of disenfranchised voters by year. (The partisan differentials and the numbers of voters in each district also appear on their respective yearly tabs.) County appearances: Every county that is a at least part of a district that appears on any of these yearly tabs and the number of times that that county appears on the sheet overall. 49 of Florida's 67 counties appear at least once on this spreadsheet. # of races with a potential "fake" write-in candidate: The number of races that appear on this spreadsheet for each year. It includes the numbers of candidates that had fail to file letters in the candidate database (when available), the numbers of races that have 2+ write-in candidates, and the numbers of races with incumbents running for re-election. Disenfranchisement stats by party: Deeper statistics on voters who were prevented from participating in primaries due to the presence of write-in candidates. It includes (for both Republicans and Democrats) the sums and averages of partisan differentials, the number of races where the partisan differential favored one party or the other, the sums and averages of Republican and Democratic voters that were shut out from primaries, and the number of races where each party was shut out. | |||||||||||||||
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15 | DATA BLOCK 1: DISTRICT PARAMETERS (COLUMNS C-G) | ||||||||||||||||
16 | This describes data points that pertain to electoral district aspects. These data points are the following: Counties (Column C): The counties that are partially or wholly in a given district. This is important for a) getting a geographical sense of where there are possible fake write-ins and b) to see if a write-in files from outside these boundaries # of DEM Candidates/# of REP Candidates (Columns D and E): How many Democrat or Republican districts are running in that election. The party that did not have a primary in that district has a dark gray cell with "0" in it. Primary Dates (Column F): The date of the primary election in that year. This is for comparing how close write-in filings are to the election date. Write-in filing dates (Column I) closer to the primary date are potentially more suspect because it is a late tactic to cement having a closed primary. Incumbent Running? (Column G): Whether the incumbent is running for re-election. Depending on the voter partisanship data, incumbents or challengers could have more incentive to prop up fake write-in candidates. | ||||||||||||||||
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20 | KEY: WHAT HIGHLIGHTS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE COLUMNS MEAN | ||||||||||||||||
21 | Col. A (Office) | Denotes races where a party candidate transferred to a local race; in one case, this led to all non write-in candidates as part of one party | |||||||||||||||
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23 | Col. B (District #) | Denotes races with 2 or more write-in candidates; a race with 2 or more makes it less likely that at least one of them is a fake candidate | |||||||||||||||
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25 | Col. L (Write-in County) | Denotes a write-in candidate from outside the district; this makes it more likely that they are a "fake" write-in | |||||||||||||||
26 | DATA BLOCK 2: WRITE-IN CANDIDATE INFORMATION (COLUMNS H-N) | ||||||||||||||||
27 | This data pertains to information on the write-in candidates themselves. Candidate Filing Link (Column H): Link to the write-ins' official candidacy data and documents. Write-In Filing Date (Column I): Date that the write-in filed to run. The closer a filing is to primary date (Column F), the more potentially suspect a write-in candidate is of being fake. Name (Column J): Name of the write-in candidate. We can potentially find news stories about these candidates by searching for their name online (e.g. if they really were found to be a fake write-in). Are They Their Own Treasurer? (Column K): Whether the write-in lists themselves as their own treasurer. If they aren't, it is much less likely that they are a fake write-in. Write-In County (Column L): The county that the write-in is filing from. If the county differs from the one(s) that the district covers, the candidacy is much more suspicious and may be trying to take advantage of the write-in residency loophole. Fail to File Campaign Finance Letters? (Column M): The number of letters (if any) a write-in candidate has on file about not filing campaign spending reports on time. The more of these letters there are, the more likely they are to be a fake write-in. Campaign Spending Total (Column L): The total amount in expenditures for a write-in. If they didn't spend any money, it could mean that they are only in the election to close the primary. | Col. N (Campaign Spending Total) | Denotes someone who received contributions of some sort (but spent $0); receiving contributions may make it less likely they are a fake candidate | ||||||||||||||
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30 | RELAVENT DOCUMENTS AND SOURCES | ||||||||||||||||
31 | Background for Open Primaries Research Project | ||||||||||||||||
32 | Bookclosing Reports Links on the Florida Division of Elections Website | ||||||||||||||||
33 | Cities by county (Florida Association of Counties) | ||||||||||||||||
34 | Florida Dept. of State Candidate Database | ||||||||||||||||
35 | Florida Dept. of State Election Results (mostly for finding primary election dates) | ||||||||||||||||
36 | Florida State House of Representatives Website | ||||||||||||||||
37 | Florida State Senate Website | ||||||||||||||||
38 | Florida Dept. of State List of Supervisors of Elections | ||||||||||||||||
39 | Florida Supervisors of Elections Website List of Supervisors | ||||||||||||||||
40 | DATA BLOCK 3: VOTER PARTISANSHIP DATA (COLUMNS O-S) | ||||||||||||||||
41 | This refers to how the partisan divide looks at the time of the primary (or as close as possible, at least). Italicized numbers and counties mean that is only a part of the country that the district covers. Eligible voter statistics were gathered from the bookclosing reports portal on the Florida Division of Elections website. The numbers for 2000 to 2014 elections were gathered specifically from the link that says "Presidential Preference Primary/General/Primary Archive Download (1994 - 2014) - Zip - 25 MB". REP Voters at Time of Election: Number of Republican voters eligible for the primary. DEM Voters at Time of Election: Number of Democratic voters eligible for the primary. Other Voters at Time of Election: Number of 3rd Party and NPA voters eligible for the primary. Partisan Differential (REP vs. DEM): The percentage point difference between Republican and Democratic voter totals (when including 3rd Parties and NPAs in the total percentage). Entries are color-coded based on which party was favored. Source(s): Links to the source for the aforementioned voter data. | OTHER NOTES AND NUANCES | |||||||||||||||
42 | The only write-in candidate who filed in two different years in races that fit our criteria is Jerry B. Steckloff (2016, 2022). | ||||||||||||||||
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44 | The year 1998, while in the range of years we are looking at, didn't have any races that fit our criteria. | ||||||||||||||||
45 | For regular elections before 2008, the candidate database does not have files available to browse. Thus, the number of fail to file letters for these candidates is unknown. The counties they filed from for these years also had to be searched for online based on what city they provided as their address. | ||||||||||||||||
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48 | Each yearly tab has comments that describe particular quirks that wouldn't be effectively noted through other means (e.g. a recognizable name of a write-in candidate). The info is potentially significant but could ultimately mean nothing for our purposes. | ||||||||||||||||
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