GPX+ Pass Counter Changes.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	H	I	J
1	Date	"barX"	Counter when "barX"	Calculated critical mass	Δ%	Notes

2	6/20/22	49	163437	333544.898	—		On average, if critical mass is reached, the pass counter changes by...	35.07496925	...%
3	6/21/22	37	118104	319200	-4.300739735		On average, if critical mass isn't reached, the pass counter changes by...	-5.021724833	...%
4	6/22/22	25	75373	301492	-5.547619048
5	6/23/22	100	301492	301492	0
6	6/24/22	40	161886	404715	34.2373927
7	6/25/22	26	99858	384069.2308	-5.101310609
8	6/26/22	39	141647	363197.4359	-5.434383491
9	6/27/22	31	106698	344187.0968	-5.23416116
10	6/28/22	23	75630	328826.087	-4.462982477
11	6/29/22	43	135322	314702.3256	-4.295207082
12	6/30/22	49	145791	297532.6531	-5.455845453
13	7/1/22	25	70284	281136	-5.510875157
14	7/2/22	56	150050	267946.4286	-4.691527029	Weather is aurora.
15	7/3/22	16	41766	261037.5	-2.578473842	-2.35% decrease just before site changed from bar24 to bar25 (lowest possible), -3.55% immediately after (highest possible). Falls outside of typical -3.0% to -7.9% data range for days with a -5% change. Estimated -2.95% change.
16	7/4/22	33	81471	246881.8182	-5.422853735
17	7/5/22	23	53573	232926.087	-5.652798302
18	7/6/22	15	33439	222926.6667	-4.292958518
19	7/7/22	14	29641	211721.4286	-5.026423381
20	7/8/22	6	11900	198333.3333	-6.323448377
21	7/9/22	6	10961	182683.3333	-7.890756303
22	7/10/22	28	49597	177132.1429	-3.038695635
23	7/11/22	100	177132	177132.1429	0
24	7/12/22	38	91905	241855.2632	36.53945538
25	7/13/22	12	27499	229158.3333	-5.249805052
26	7/14/22	10	21513	215130	-6.121677152
27	7/15/22	74	153256	207102.7027	-3.731370472	First day of SWSH.
28	7/16/22	100	207102.7027	207102.7027	0
29	7/17/22	48	134043	279256.25	34.83950057
30	7/18/22	100	279256.25	279256.25	0
31	7/19/22	23	88447	384552.1739	37.70584326
32	7/20/22	100	384552.1739	384552.1739	0
33	7/21/22	82	419910	512085.3659	33.16408035
34	7/22/22	20	97099	485495	-5.192565073
35	7/23/22	12	54827	456891.6667	-5.891581444
36	7/24/22	24	103450	431041.6667	-5.657796341
37	7/25/22	17	69921	411300	-4.579990333
38	7/26/22	57	225623	395829.8246	-3.761287488
39	7/27/22	13	48513	373176.9231	-5.722888999	Weather is aurora.
40	7/28/22	16	58511	365693.75	-2.005261476	Caught soon after: 59921 at 17% = -5.547%. This averages to -3.776%, similar to the last post-aurora decrease, making it safe to assume aurora makes the pass counter decrease by less.
41	7/29/22	19	65667	345615.7895	-5.490375629
42	7/30/22	29	94393	325493.1034	-5.822270463
43	7/31/22	24	73837	307654.1667	-5.48058825
44	8/1/22	10	29316	293160	-4.711188158
45	8/2/22	14	39241	280292.8571	-4.389119545
46	8/3/22	12	32358	269650	-3.797049005	Unusually high before. . . bar11 @ 27903 = -9.500%? New ceiling, I guess. Averages to -6.6%.
47	8/4/22	18	44411	246727.7778	-8.500731401
48	8/5/22	11	25369	230627.2727	-6.525615071
49	8/6/22	13	28428	218676.9231	-5.181672362	Seems low? This was right after a change from bar12 to bar13, and the latter end of bar12 was even positive. But why?
50	8/7/22	11	22678	206163.6364	-5.722271256
51	8/8/22	65	130918	201412.3077	-2.304639535	Another unusually low decrease. 11% at 22934 is +1.13. Maybe the decrease does in fact depend on how close we get to meeting the target like some people have guessed before I began, since that's the next most simple explanation, but I can't reliably test that right now (not home). Anyway, presuming things are the same as yesterday, should average to a -2% decrease.
52	8/9/22	13	25459	195838.4615	-2.767381109
53	8/10/22	14	25536	182400	-6.862013433
54	8/11/22	16	27884	174275	-4.454495614
55	8/12/22	41	66992	163395.122	-6.242936766	First day of Beach Vacation coin event.
56	8/13/22	100	163395.122	163395.122	0
57	8/14/22	69	153139	221940.5797	35.83060318
58	8/15/22	100	221940.5797	221940.5797	0
59	8/16/22	24	72178	300741.6667	35.50548848
60	8/17/22	100	300741.6667	300741.6667	0
61	8/18/22	25	101997	407988	35.66061681
62	8/19/22	100	407988	407988	0
63	8/20/22	28	151835	542267.8571	32.91269771
64	8/21/22	18	91793	509961.1111	-5.957709941
65	8/22/22	100	509961.1111	509961.1111	0
66	8/23/22	13	88793	683023.0769	33.93630652
67	8/24/22	5	33341	666820	-2.372259074
68	8/25/22	32	203981	637440.625	-4.405892895
69	8/26/22	100	637440.625	637440.625	0
70	8/27/22	41	354111	863685.3659	35.4926768
71	8/28/22	11	86618	787436.3636	-8.828330921	Last day of Beach Vacation coin event.
72	8/29/22	6	42544	709066.6667	-9.952511795	Right after turnover. Average with 5/41577 = +5% from right before turnover, get -5%.
73	8/30/22	8	55188	689850	-2.710135389	Weather is aurora. Have been consistently catching this value when it is unusually low.
74	8/31/22	21	144243	686871.4286	-0.4317708819	Typical low decrease?
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