ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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InputNotes
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Standard Deviation in leadership ability0.1Crude guess
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Value of 1 VSE in standard deviations1
More educated, but still dubious guess
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Correction for frequency of interesting elections0.3
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Correction for voter preferences0.02
This could easily be off by an order of magnitude in either direction; arguably I should use a higher value since the mean is much greater than the median
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Overall multiplier0.0006
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VSE
Leadership quality improvement from replacing Plurality with this method
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Plurality0.8
For these numbers I ran a simulation and took the IRV, STAR, and Condorcet numbers at face value. I added a lot to Plurality and a little to Approval and Approval + runoff to account for the benefits of strategic voting.
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IRV0.8940.0000564
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Approval0.920.000072
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Approval + runoff0.950.00009
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Effective Approval0.940.000084
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STAR0.9690.0001014
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Condorcet0.9670.0001002
This is for Smith//Minimax (margins), but all Condorcet methods are about the same
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Effective PR VSE1.050.00015
VSE doesn't let me compare single- and multi-winner elections, so this is totally hack-y based on my belief that diverse groups elected under PR will make better decisions.
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Color Code
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My estimate (moderate-high confidence)
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My estimate (low confidence)
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My estimate (very low confidence)
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External source, and I trust it and my interpretation of it a lot
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External source, and I don't trust it or my interpretation much
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