2016 GWWC Cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation.xlsx
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GroupingTitleCentral value5% / low95% / highUnitTypeTime valueSourceURL
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Current emissionsA1B 2016 emissions50,000,000,00050,000,000,00045,000,000,000tCO2eqInput2016
Bernie, Dan, Jason Lowe, and Stephen Smith. "Technical Appendix: Updated projections of global emissions and temperatures." Report commissioned by the UK Committee on Climate Change in support of the fourth carbon budget review (2013).
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Updated-projections-of-global-emissions-and-temperatures.pdf
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2030 impactsAdditional deaths from undernutrition95176.0-119807.0310156.0DeathsInput2030
World Health Organization. Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s. World Health Organization, 2014.
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Additional deaths from malaria60091.037608.0117001.0DeathsInput2030ibid.
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Additional deaths from dengue fever258.0136.0331.0DeathsInput2030ibid.
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Additional deaths from diarrhoeal disease48114.021097.067702.0DeathsInput2030ibid.
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Additional deaths from excessive heat37588.026912.048390.0DeathsInput2030ibid.
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Sum of additional deaths due to these pathways241227.0-34054.0543580.0Deaths/yearCalc
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Percentage of total deaths (assuming that deaths due to all causes grow at the same rate as the above - very generous assumption)
5.15.94.4Input2030
Global Burden of Disease Study
http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
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Total deaths4714227.1-582119.712382232.3DeathsCalc2030
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2050 impactsAdditional deaths from undernutrition84697.0-29203.0163989.0DeathsInput2050
World Health Organization. Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s. World Health Organization, 2014.
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Additional deaths from malaria32695.022786.040817.0DeathsInput2050ibid.
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Additional deaths from dengue fever282.0195.0342.0DeathsInput2050ibid.
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Additional deaths from diarrhoeal disease32955.014914.049151.0DeathsInput2050ibid.
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Additional deaths from excessive heat94621.070775.0126684.0DeathsInput2050ibid.
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Sum of additional deaths due to these pathways245250.079467.0380983.0Deaths/yearCalc
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Percentage of total deaths (assuming that deaths due to all causes grow at the same rate as the above - very generous assumption)
5.15.94.4Input2050
Global Burden of Disease Study
http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
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Total deaths4792847.41358410.38678428.2DeathsCalc2050
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Average increase per year 2030-2050
Additional deaths from undernutrition-524.04530.2-7308.4Deaths/yearCalc2030-2050
n.b. these decrease due to adaptation and disease prevention work
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Additional deaths from malaria-1369.8-741.1-3809.2Deaths/yearCalc2030-2050
n.b. these decrease due to adaptation and disease prevention work
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Additional deaths from dengue fever1.23.00.6Deaths/yearCalc2030-2050
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Additional deaths from diarrhoeal disease-758.0-309.2-927.6Deaths/yearCalc2030-2050
n.b. these decrease due to adaptation and disease prevention work
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Additional deaths from excessive heat2851.72193.23914.7Deaths/yearCalc2030-2050
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Sum of additional deaths due to these pathways201.25676.1-8129.9Deaths/yearCalc2030-2051
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Percentage of total deaths (assuming that deaths due to all causes grow at the same rate as the above - very generous assumption)
5.15.94.4%Input
Global Burden of Disease Study
http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
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Total deaths per year (according to rate of change in the given column)
3931.0110925.3-158879.2Deaths/yearCalc2030-2050
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Total deaths per year (using rate of change in the central value column)
3931.03438.54582.0Deaths/yearCalc2030-2051
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Effect of emissions reduction
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Emissions averted (including below)265.4140.1548.3tCO2eqCalc
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Proportion of total annual emissions for that year averted5.31E-092.80E-091.22E-08#Calc
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Downward effect of adaptation on heat deaths (percentage of annual increase)
180.0150.0200.0%
Input (estimate)
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Downward effect of adaptation on Dengue fever (percentage of annual increase)
180.0150.0200.0%
Input (estimate)
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Downward effect of adaptation on undernutrition (percentage of annual decrease)
180.0150.0200.0%
Input (estimate)
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Downward effect of adaptation on malaria (percentage of annual decrease)
180.0150.0200.0%
Input (estimate)
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Downward effect of adaptation on diarrhoeal disease (percentage of annual decrease)
180.0150.0200.0%
Input (estimate)
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Heat deaths prevented by incremental warming delay (per year)
2.72E-059.22E-069.54E-05LivesCalc
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Dengue fever deaths prevented by incremental warming delay (per year)
1.15E-081.24E-081.34E-08LivesCalc
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Undernutrition deaths prevented by incremental warming delay (per year)
-5.01E-061.90E-05-1.78E-04LivesCalc
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Diarrhoeal disease deaths prevented by incremental warming delay (per year)
-7.24E-06-1.30E-06-2.26E-05LivesCalc
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Lives saved (all 4 areas) by incremental warming delay (over 50 years)
7.50E-041.35E-03-5.26E-03LivesCalc
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Lives saved (all 4 areas) per 1tCO2eq averted2.83E-069.63E-06-9.60E-06Lives
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Tonnes per life saved in these 4 areas353643.1103888.3-104151.0
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Cost per life saved in these 4 areas133254.874163.6-18994.6$/lifeCalc
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Percentage of total lives saved4.45.23.7%Input
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Cost per life saved (all causes of death)$5,886$3,819-$701US$/lifeCalc
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Lives saved per 1tCO2eq averted (all causes of death)6.40E-051.87E-04-2.60E-04LivesCalc
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Tonnes per life saved (all causes of death)15620.45350.2-3843.2tCO2eq/lifeCalc
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Lives saved as a result of individual emission reduction0.01698986050.0261819577-0.1426731994
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DiscountingYears into the future37.550.025yearsInput
Hansen, J. et al. Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications, 2004. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2005/04/28/science.1110252
Science AAAS, ”Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications”, available (after free registration) at www.scienceonline.org/cgi/reprint/1110252v1.pdf, p.1
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Discount rate/year331%/yearInput
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Factor of value in that year0.31910972150.21806537530.7778213594Calc
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Tonnes per death averted (discounted)48949.9775124535.05668-4940.943957tCO2eq/lifeCalc
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Cost per life saved (discounted)$18,445$17,515-$901$/lifeCalc
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Cool Earth donationsAmount donated100100100US$Input
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Cost per acre protected10012080US$/acreInput
Communications with Cool Earth
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Area protected1.000.831.25acres Calc
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Additional acres shielded per acre directly protected2.551.622.55acres/acreInput
Communications with Cool Earth
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Area shielded2.551.353.18acresCalc
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Total area (protected or shielded)3.552.194.43acresCalc
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Percentage of comparable forest logged282840%Input
Communications with Cool Earth; International Arm of the French Forestry Commission
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Percentage of protected forest logged0.50.50.5%Input
Communications with Cool Earth
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Reduction in logging (including both protected and shielded areas)
0.980.601.75acresCalc
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Emissions averted per acre not logged272.00233.00313.00
tCO2eq/acre
Input
Communications with Cool Earth; Saatchi, et al, 2011, Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents, PNAS.; Kearsley, et al, 2013, Conventional tree height-diameter relationships significantly overestimate aboveground carbon stocks in the Central Congo Basin, Nature Communications.; Vincent, et al, 2015, Forest carbon in lowland Papua New Guinea: Local variation and the importance of small trees, Austral Ecology.
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Total emissions averted 265.39140.08548.32tCO2eq/Calc
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Cost per tonne of emissions averted0.380.710.18
US$/tCO2eq
Calc
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