| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | ||
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1 | Title | Author | Rank | Total | Vote Visualization | Important but shouldn't be in book | Deserves followup work | I personally benefited from this post | Should be edited / improved | I spent 30+ minutes reviewing this in-depth | Non-Neutral Votes | Num Downvotes | Num Upvotes | % Upvotes | 25th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 75th Percentile | IQR (75th - 25th) | Karma | |
2 | What failure looks like | paulfchristiano | 1 | 111 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 0.91 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 238 | |||||||
3 | Risks from Learned Optimization: Introduction | evhub | 2 | 103 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 0.81 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 138 | |||||||
4 | The Parable of Predict-O-Matic | abramdemski | 3 | 92 | 26 | 4 | 22 | 0.85 | 2 | 3 | 6.75 | 4.75 | 238 | |||||||
5 | Being the (Pareto) Best in the World | johnswentworth | 4.5 | 88 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 0.82 | 2 | 3.5 | 7.75 | 5.75 | 200 | ||||||
6 | Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success | Scott Alexander | 4.5 | 88 | 27 | 8 | 19 | 0.7 | -1 | 4 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 142 | |||||||
7 | Rule Thinkers In, Not Out | Scott Alexander | 6 | 75 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 0.9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 139 | |||||||
8 | Book summary: Unlocking the Emotional Brain | Kaj_Sotala | 7 | 71 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 0.7 | -1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 208 | |||||||
9 | Asymmetric Justice | Zvi | 8.5 | 68 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 0.81 | 1.25 | 2.5 | 4.75 | 3.5 | 161 | |||||||
10 | Heads I Win, Tails?—Never Heard of Her; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of the Green Rationalists | Zack_M_Davis | 8.5 | 68 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 0.69 | -1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 217 | |||||||
11 | 1960: The Year The Singularity Was Cancelled | Scott Alexander | 10 | 63 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 0.77 | 1 | 2.5 | 5 | 4 | 88 | |||||||
12 | Selection vs Control | abramdemski | 11.5 | 59 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 0.71 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 119 | |||||||
13 | You Have About Five Words | Raemon | 11.5 | 59 | 32 | 10 | 22 | 0.69 | -1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 115 | |||||||
14 | The Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag" | Raemon | 13 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 0.71 | -1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 117 | |||||||
15 | Noticing Frame Differences | Raemon | 14 | 56 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 0.72 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 147 | |||||||
16 | Yes Requires the Possibility of No | Scott Garrabrant | 15 | 54 | 2 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 3 | 5 | 3.75 | 149 | ||||||
17 | "Other people are wrong" vs "I am right" | Buck | 16 | 53 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 0.77 | 1 | 3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 198 | |||||||
18 | Rest Days vs Recovery Days | Unreal | 17 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 0.71 | -1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 144 | |||||
19 | Seeking Power is Often Robustly Instrumental in MDPs | TurnTrout | 18.5 | 48 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 0.68 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 126 | ||||||
20 | The Forces of Blandness and the Disagreeable Majority | sarahconstantin | 18.5 | 48 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 3 | 5.25 | 4 | 113 | |||||||
21 | The Costs of Reliability | sarahconstantin | 20.5 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 7 | 16 | 0.7 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 138 | ||||
22 | Chris Olah’s views on AGI safety | evhub | 20.5 | 41 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 0.76 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 139 | |||||||
23 | Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence | rohinmshah | 22 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0.6 | -1 | 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 93 | |||||||
24 | Humans Who Are Not Concentrating Are Not General Intelligences | sarahconstantin | 23.5 | 35 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 0.73 | -0.5 | 2 | 3.75 | 4.25 | 152 | |||||||
25 | The strategy-stealing assumption | paulfchristiano | 23.5 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 0.7 | -1 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 68 | |||||
26 | Reframing Impact | TurnTrout | 26.5 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 0.56 | -1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 84 | |||||||
27 | Understanding “Deep Double Descent” | evhub | 26.5 | 34 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 0.65 | -1 | 2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 129 | |||||||
28 | Moloch Hasn’t Won | Zvi | 26.5 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 0.81 | 1 | 1 | 4.25 | 3.25 | 137 | |||||
29 | Integrity and accountability are core parts of rationality | habryka | 26.5 | 34 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 0.59 | -2 | 1.5 | 2.75 | 4.75 | 137 | |||||||
30 | Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments | johnswentworth | 30.5 | 33 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 0.68 | -1 | 1.5 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 110 | ||||||
31 | In My Culture | Duncan_Sabien | 30.5 | 33 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 0.65 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 56 | |||||||
32 | Make more land | jefftk | 30.5 | 33 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 0.65 | -1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 138 | ||||||
33 | Forum participation as a research strategy | Wei_Dai | 30.5 | 33 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 0.57 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 118 | |||||||
34 | Unconscious Economics | jacobjacob | 33 | 31 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 0.63 | -1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 93 | ||||||
35 | Mistakes with Conservation of Expected Evidence | abramdemski | 34.5 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 0.67 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 159 | |||||||
36 | Bioinfohazards | Spiracular | 34.5 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 0.65 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 76 | |||||||
37 | The Tale of Alice Almost: Strategies for Dealing With Pretty Good People | sarahconstantin | 36 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 0.69 | -1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 83 | |||||||
38 | Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra | Benquo | 37 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 0.74 | 0 | 2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 51 | |||
39 | human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal | nostalgebraist | 38 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.62 | -1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 154 | |||||||
40 | AI Safety "Success Stories" | Wei_Dai | 40 | 23 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 0.5 | -1 | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | 105 | |||||||
41 | Do you fear the rock or the hard place? | Ruby | 40 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0.57 | -1 | 1.5 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 56 | |||||||
42 | Propagating Facts into Aesthetics | Raemon | 40 | 23 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 0.53 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 73 | |||||||
43 | Gradient hacking | evhub | 42 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.62 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 74 | |||||||
44 | The Amish, and Strategic Norms around Technology | Raemon | 44 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 0.56 | -1 | 1.5 | 3 | 4 | 128 | |||||||
45 | Power Buys You Distance From The Crime | Elizabeth | 44 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0.55 | -1.25 | 1.5 | 3.25 | 4.5 | 146 | |||||||
46 | Paper-Reading for Gears | johnswentworth | 44 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 0.73 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 126 | |||||||
47 | How to Ignore Your Emotions (while also thinking you're awesome at emotions) | Hazard | 48.5 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0.59 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 194 | |||||||
48 | The Real Rules Have No Exceptions | Said Achmiz | 48.5 | 20 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0.55 | -2 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | 113 | |||||||
49 | Coherent decisions imply consistent utilities | Eliezer Yudkowsky | 48.5 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 0.63 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 119 | |||||||
50 | Alignment Research Field Guide | abramdemski | 48.5 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0.5 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 198 | |||||||
51 | Blackmail | Zvi | 48.5 | 20 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.62 | -1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 105 | |||||||
52 | The Curse Of The Counterfactual | pjeby | 48.5 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0.44 | -2 | -1 | 3 | 5 | 98 | |||||||
53 | The Credit Assignment Problem | abramdemski | 52.5 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.54 | -1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 72 | |||||||
54 | Reason isn't magic | Benquo | 52.5 | 19 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 0.62 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 127 | |||||||
55 | Mental Mountains | Scott Alexander | 54 | 18 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 0.5 | -1 | 1 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 104 | |||||||
56 | Simple Rules of Law | Zvi | 56.5 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 52 | |||||||
57 | Utility ≠ Reward | vlad_m | 56.5 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0.57 | -1 | 1.5 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 84 | |||||||
58 | Is Rationalist Self-Improvement Real? | Jacobian | 56.5 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0.55 | -2.25 | 2 | 3.25 | 5.5 | 201 | |||||||
59 | Literature Review: Distributed Teams | Elizabeth | 56.5 | 16 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0.62 | -1 | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | 103 | |||||||
60 | Steelmanning Divination | Vaniver | 59 | 15 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0.55 | -1 | 1 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 163 | |||||||
61 | Book Review: Design Principles of Biological Circuits | johnswentworth | 60 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.54 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 145 | |||||||
62 | Building up to an Internal Family Systems model | Kaj_Sotala | 61 | 13 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 0.5 | -1 | 0 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 174 | |||||||
63 | Evolution of Modularity | johnswentworth | 62 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.54 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 121 | |||||||
64 | [Answer] Why wasn't science invented in China? | Ruby | 63 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0.57 | -1 | 1 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 84 | |||||||
65 | How Much is Your Time Worth? | lynettebye | 64 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.62 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 69 | |||||||
66 | Book Review: The Structure Of Scientific Revolutions | Scott Alexander | 65.5 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0.62 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 95 | |||||||
67 | Everybody Knows | Zvi | 65.5 | 8 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 0.6 | -1.25 | 1.5 | 3 | 4.25 | 96 | |||||||
68 | Sequence introduction: non-agent and multiagent models of mind | Kaj_Sotala | 68.5 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0.46 | -1 | -1 | 3 | 4 | 95 | |||||||
69 | From Personal to Prison Gangs: Enforcing Prosocial Behavior | johnswentworth | 68.5 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0.5 | -1.75 | 0 | 2.75 | 4.5 | 126 | |||||||
70 | Some Ways Coordination is Hard | Zvi | 68.5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0.53 | -1 | 1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 52 | |||||
71 | Circle Games | sarahconstantin | 68.5 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0.5 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 76 | |||||||
72 | Why Subagents? | johnswentworth | 71 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0.4 | -1 | -1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 109 | |||||||
73 | Healthy Competition | Raemon | 73.5 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.33 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 54 | |||||||
74 | Where to Draw the Boundaries? | Zack_M_Davis | 73.5 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 0.43 | -2 | -1 | 3 | 5 | 97 | |||||||
75 | Does it become easier, or harder, for the world to coordinate around not building AGI as time goes on? | elityre | 73.5 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.47 | -2 | -1 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 86 | |||||||
76 | Six AI Risk/Strategy Ideas | Wei_Dai | 73.5 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0.38 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 60 | |||||||
77 | Thoughts on Human Models | Ramana Kumar | 76.5 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0.38 | -2.5 | -1 | 2.25 | 4.75 | 109 | |||||||
78 | Classifying specification problems as variants of Goodhart's Law | Vika | 76.5 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0.38 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 67 | |||||||
79 | Book Summary: Consciousness and the Brain | Kaj_Sotala | 79 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | -1 | 0 | 1.25 | 2.25 | 121 | |||||||
80 | Gears vs Behavior | johnswentworth | 79 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0.36 | -1.5 | -1 | 2.5 | 4 | 63 | |||||||
81 | Strategic implications of AIs' ability to coordinate at low cost, for example by merging | Wei_Dai | 79 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0.5 | -1 | 0.5 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 58 | |||||||
82 | Book Review: Secular Cycles | Scott Alexander | 82 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 3 | 5.5 | 60 | ||||||
83 | Some Thoughts on My Psychiatry Practice | Laura B | 82 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0.4 | -1.5 | -1 | 2 | 3.5 | 142 | |||||||
84 | Coordination Surveys: why we should survey to organize responsibilities, not just predictions | Academian | 82 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0.42 | -2 | -1 | 4 | 6 | 68 | |||||||
85 | The Hard Work of Translation (Buddhism) | romeostevensit | 84.5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0.37 | -2 | -1 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 97 | ||||||
86 | [Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration | jacobjacob | 84.5 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0.36 | -1.5 | -1 | 1.5 | 3 | 57 | |||||||
87 | Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage | Daniel Kokotajlo | 86.5 | -1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 0.45 | -2 | -1 | 2 | 4 | 109 | |||||||
88 | Total horse takeover | KatjaGrace | 86.5 | -1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 0.5 | -4 | 0 | 2.25 | 6.25 | 80 | |||||||
89 | Complex Behavior from Simple (Sub)Agents | moridinamael | 88.5 | -2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0.42 | -1 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 104 | |||||||
90 | Less Competition, More Meritocracy? | Zvi | 88.5 | -2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0.5 | -1.75 | 0 | 1.75 | 3.5 | 84 | ||||||
91 | Megaproject management | ryan_b | 90.5 | -3 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.47 | -1.5 | -1 | 1.5 | 3 | 55 | |||||||
92 | But exactly how complex and fragile? | KatjaGrace | 90.5 | -3 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0.43 | -1.75 | -1 | 1 | 2.75 | 64 | ||||||
93 | Trauma, Meditation, and a Cool Scar | elriggs | 92.5 | -6 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0.22 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 95 | |||||||
94 | Turning air into bread | jasoncrawford | 92.5 | -6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.29 | -2.5 | -1 | 0.5 | 3 | 92 | |||||||
95 | AlphaStar: Impressive for RL progress, not for AGI progress | orthonormal | 95 | -7 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0.33 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 111 | |||||||
96 | Dishonest Update Reporting | Zvi | 95 | -7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0.42 | -1 | -1 | 1.25 | 2.25 | 58 | |||||||
97 | What are the open problems in Human Rationality? | Raemon | 95 | -7 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0.25 | -2.5 | -1 | -0.5 | 2 | 92 | |||||||
98 | Integrating the Lindy Effect | lsusr | 97.5 | -8 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0.22 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 47 | |||||||
99 | mAIry's room: AI reasoning to solve philosophical problems | Stuart_Armstrong | 97.5 | -8 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0.38 | -2 | -1 | 1.25 | 3.25 | 89 | |||||||
100 | S-Curves for Trend Forecasting | Matt Goldenberg | 99 | -9 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 0.31 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 99 |