Coronavirus Individual Risk Analysis

	A	B	C	D
1		Iceland	South Korea
2	Population testing
3	As of date	3/31/2020	3/31/2020
4	Population size	364,260	51,470,000
5	Samples collected	17,904	395,194
6	Percent of population tested	4.92%	0.77%
7	COVID-19 positive	1,135	9,661
8	Infection rate of all samples	6.34%	2.44%
9	Infection rate of deCode random samples (approx)	1%
10
11	Case severity
12	Estimated infections	3,643	1,258,247
13	Cases hospitalized	35	2,765	*
14	Cases in ICU	11	869	*
15	Cases fatal	2	158
16
17	Outcomes rates
18	Case hospitalization rate		0.220%	*
19	Infection fatality rate (unadjusted)		0.013%
20
21	Assumptions and adjustment metrics
22	Percent of infections new in the past 10 days		10%
23	Newly infected patients to move to hospital		285
24	Hospitalized patients to move to ICU		25%
25	ICU patients to die		66%
26
27	Infection fatality rate (adjusted)		0.096%
28
29	Sources:	https://www.covid.is/data
30		https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095848/south-korea-confirmed-and-suspected-coronavirus-cases/
31		https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
32
33	*Estimated based on Iceland's hospitalization and ICU rates
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100