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Probability that the Global Fund or PMI will come up with the funding to cover this tranche of funding if AMF does not
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AMF grantAmount GF/PMI would need to come up withProbabilityNotesWeight for average for $43 million grant
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$0-10 million$41-51 million25%We have not seen or heard of any evidence suggesting that we should expect the Global Fund to allocate funding well beyond what it did last period through portfolio optimization (see below), so we use pessimistic figures here. There is a possibility of another funder that we haven't considered stepping in.10
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$10-20 million$31-41 million25%See above point.10
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$20-25 million$26-31 million30%Our current overall funging probability for DRC. Outside of the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, we would guess that the Global Fund would contribute about ~$30m through portfolio optimization. This is because in the last period, the Global Fund contributed $26m from portfolio optimization to LLINs in DRC. In this current period, the Global Fund has allocted 13% more to malaria in DRC. If we expected a roughly similar amount of portfolio optimization to be available in this period, that would imply $29m in funding (113% of $26m = $29m).5
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$25-30 million$21-26 million45%Our best guess in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic is that the Global Fund will actually allocate less to LLINs through portfolio optimization (somewhere in the range of $16-$22m?). This is based on an impression that substantial health funding has been and will continue to be diverted to Covid-19 mitigation; if the same is true for the Global Fund's portfolio optimization funding, this implies that less funding will be available for LLINs.5
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$30-35 million$16-21 million55%See above point.5
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$35-40 million$11-16 million65%Likelihood that the Global Fund provides up to 60% of what it did last period through portfolio optimization.5
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$40-45 million$6-11 million70%Likelihood that the Global Fund provides up to 40% of what it did last period through portfolio optimization.

Note that $43 million is the maximum grant we are considering, because we consider $7.5 million of the gap to be filled by AMF's reserves. In this sheet, we include the full gap as AMF would define it ($51 million) because our understanding is that AMF is unlikely to actually commit the $7.5 million.		3
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$45-51 million$0-6 million75%Note that there is a possibility that $51 million is not sufficient to close the gap fully, e.g. if PMI contributes less than expected, population estimates increase, or Covid-related cost increases continue past 2021.0
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Average39%
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Average above $20m
52%
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Margin73%
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