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Evaluating TCP 3 (House) on Commission Competitiveness Metric
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In June of 2022, the Commission adopted a competitiveness measure to identify what legislative districts will be considered competitive. The Commission will evaluate state legislative plans using ten races from 2016 through 2020, which are all publicly available. State legislative districts won by both major parties at least 30% of the time are considered competitive. State legislative districts won by the same party 80% or more of the time in these 10 races are not considered competitive.
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*The 2-party statewide average for these ten races is 57% Republican and 43% Democrat.
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Commission Competitiveness Evaluation
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Republican Districts56
*Won by Republicans at least 80% of the time.
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Democratic Districts35
*Won by Democrats at least 80% of the time.
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Competitive Districts9*Competitive Districts: Won by both major parties at least 30% of the time (or 3 of the 10 races).
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Total House Districts100
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Breakdown of Competitive Districts Only
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Republican-Leaning Competitive Seats4*Competitive districts won a majority of the time by Republicans.
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Democratic-Leaning Competitive Seats5
*Competitive districts won a majority of the time by Democrats.
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Competitive Seats (won equally by both parties)0
*Competitive districts won 50% of the time by both major parties.
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Total Competitive House Districts9
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Breakdown of Party Advantage
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Majority Republican Won Districts60
*Won by Republicans more than 60% or more of the time.
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Majority Democratic Won Districts40
*Won by Democrats more than 60% or more of the time.
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Districts Won 50% of the Time by Both Parties0
*Won by both major parties 50% of the time.
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Total House Districts100
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*The 2-party statewide average for the Commission's ten races used for measuring competitiveness is 57% Republican and 43% Democrat.
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**With 57% of the statewide vote, Republicans are favored to win
60
of 100 house districts.
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***If Republicans are earning 57% of the statewide vote, they would be favored to win
3
seats more than their statewide vote share.