2018 Election Impact by District
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What is this spreadsheet?
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This spreadsheet is an analysis of where one individual's efforts can have the highest potential impact on an election or set of elections on November 6, 2018. It uses projections from fivethirtyeight.com to estimate the likelihood that each candidate will win a given election, as well as population data for each state and district to normalize one's impact by the population of the voter pool (reaching out to voters in lower-population districts has a higher per-capita impact than reaching out to voters in higher-population districts).
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How should I use it?
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Look at the "Overall Impact" tab to see where your election efforts can have the highest impact. All U.S. House districts are sorted from highest impact to lowest impact. Note that these scores are most relevant to efforts like Get Out the Vote (GOTV), where encouraging people to vote will increase voter turnout not only in the House race, but in other important races too, like U.S. Senator and Governor.

If you're considering where to donate money, feel free to look at the "House races," "Senate races," and "Governor races" tabs, all of which are important in the 2018 elections. If you are particularly keen on flipping the Senate from a Republican to Democratic majority, for example, use the "Senate races" tab to see where your donations might have the most impact.
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What can I do to help Democrats win?
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1. Write letters for Vote Forward to encourage unlikely voters to get to the polls on November 6! Just click the link to the right and follow the instructions! --->
https://votefwd.org
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2. Get in touch with a campaign of your choice (preferably one of the highest-ranked ones!) and ask about opportunities to canvas, phone bank, text bank, or help out in other ways.
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3. Donate to important campaigns! Find the website of a campaign of your choice, and donate! There is a decent chance the Democrats will flip the House, but the Senate is in dire straits. Consider giving money to Democrats in some of the highest-impact Senate campaigns, like Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Jacky Rosen (NV), Jon Tester (MT), or Claire McCaskill (MO).
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How often are these rankings updated?
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I try to pull all the latest forecast data from fivethirtyeight.com every day, which often changes the rankings slightly. Some days, there will be bigger changes in certain elections based on recent polling.
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Where is your data coming from?
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Every day, I am scraping data from fivethirtyeight.com for their latest projections of how likely each candidate is to win in each House, Senate, and gubernatorial race. This helps define how close each race is, as an individual's potential impact is higher in races that are closer. I also use population data for each House district and each state to determine the per-capita impact an individual can have.

Though I created tabs for it in this spreadsheet, I am currently not using ideology data from GovTrack in the model as there are so many representatives retiring, making incumbent ideology less relevant. But you may use the graphs on the "House races" page to see which incumbents are the most conservative (closest to an ideology score of 1) and most vulnerable. (NC-9 is currently winning on the most-conservative-and-most-vulnerable front.)
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Aren't state legislature elections important too?
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Yes! I don't have the data to be able to bake state legislature elections into this model, but they are very important! Here's an article from Vox that outlines some of the most important ones this election: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/30/17614554/2018-midterms-state-legislature-elections-gerrymandering

If you want to donate to a great organization working on important state legislature elections to help end gerrymandering, consider giving to Only If You Run. There's a link to the right! --->
https://www.onlyifyou.run/
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Who made this?
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I did! I'm Nate Kaufman, and I did this as a personal project to see where I could have the most bang for my buck in writing letters for Vote Forward. If you find it interesting or helpful too, I'm glad! If you don't, I'm sorry!
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I have other questions!
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Cool! Feel free to reach out. nate.a.kaufman@gmail.com.
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