| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | |
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1 | Resolution criteria: | James to decide and justify. Elie to review. Any disagreement resolved by one other GW researcher agreed on by James and Elie | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Timing (time after grant is distributed to CPSP) | Updates (rough) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr or end of period covered by grant, whichever is later | Notes from Program Officer | 2/1/2022 (8 months in) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Multinational | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Inputs | CPSP has hired at least two people (or provided funding for FAO/WHO to hire four people) to work with the FAO / WHO on pesticide suicide prevention | 60% | 78% | 85% | If we provide funding for these activities, I think it's very likely that CPSP will engage meaningfully with WHO / FAO. (1) CPSP told me they have a concrete plan for what these people would work on. (2) Mark Davis has a lot of experience working w/ FAO (3) CPSP told me a lot of interest from WHO/FAO for these resources (4) These people are budgeted for first year. My main hesitations are around (1) whether four people is definitely the right number of will proceed with less, (2) a heavy debit because hiring takes time (3) CPSP were ~50% underbudget in last grant period because of slower than expected start up. So I expect a high change this will be behind the budget proposal and/or will not involve four people. I haven't gone over 85% in case of unforeseen things e.g. CPSP determines another way of working w/ multilaterals is more effective that requires less people. | Yes | 1 at WHO, 1 at FAO. Recruited second one in each | |||||||||||||||||||
7 | Inputs | CPSP has hired at least four people (or provided funding for FAO/WHO to hire four people) to work with the FAO / WHO on pesticide suicide prevention | 35% | 55% | 65% | If we provide funding for these activities, I think it's very likely that CPSP will engage meaningfully with WHO / FAO. (1) CPSP told me they have a concrete plan for what these people would work on. (2) Mark Davis has a lot of experience working w/ FAO (3) CPSP told me a lot of interest from WHO/FAO for these resources (4) These people are budgeted for first year. My main hesitations are around (1) whether four people is definitely the right number of will proceed with less, (2) a heavy debit because hiring takes time (3) CPSP were ~50% underbudget in last grant period because of slower than expected start up. So I expect a high change this will be behind the budget proposal and/or will not involve four people. I haven't gone over 85% in case of unforeseen things e.g. CPSP determines another way of working w/ multilaterals is more effective that requires less people. | No | ME expects yes within 3 months | |||||||||||||||||||
8 | Engagement | We believe CPSP has "meaningfully engaged" with at least one country other than SA, Nepal, Taiwan, SL, China, India through their WHO work (e.g. provided advice specific to that country on how to effectively regulate pesticides used in suicide, not presence at a multistakeholder workshop) | 40% | 70% | 85% | CPSP believes it will meaningfully engage with 5-15 countries over the grant period through this work | Yes | Zimbabwe | |||||||||||||||||||
9 | Engagement | We believe CPSP has "meaningfully engaged" with at least five countries other than SA, Nepal, Taiwan, SL, China, India through their WHO work | 20% | 45% | 65% | CPSP believes it will meaningfully engage with 5-15 countries over the grant period through this work | No | ||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Engagement | We believe CPSP has "meaningfully engaged" with at least ten countries other than SA, Nepal, Taiwan, SL, China, India through their WHO work | 10% | 25% | 40% | CPSP believes it will meaningfully engage with 5-15 countries over the grant period through this work | No | ||||||||||||||||||||
11 | Engagement | CPSP is credited in at least one WHO publication which aims to provide guidance to government pesticide regulators | 60% | 70% | 80% | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
12 | Policy change | We believe CPSP's engagements through the UN contributed (>25%) to bans on pesticides that CPSP believes account for >20% of suicides in at least one country CPSP is not otherwise engaged with | 20% | 40% | I'm thinking of 25% as more causal attribution than the India Malhotra committee decision, or the Nepal decision to ban dichlorvos, but substantially less than the Nepal decision to ban aluminium phosphide | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Policy change | We believe CPSP's work through the UN contributed (>25%) to pesticides that CPSP believes account for >20% of suicides being banned in at least three countries CPSP is not otherwise engaged with | 15% | 30% | No | ||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | Policy change | We believe CPSP's work through the UN contributed (>25%) to pesticides that CPSP believes account for >20% of suicides being banned in at least five countries CPSP is not otherwise engaged with | 10% | 20% | No | ||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | Regional | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Inputs | CPSP has hired at least two people to work with regional bodies on pesticide suicide prevention | 50% | 78% | 85% | Two planned in year 1 and five planned in year 2 | Yes | ||||||||||||||||||||
18 | Inputs | CPSP has hired at least four people to work with regional bodies on pesticide suicide prevention | 10% | 50% | 65% | Two planned in year 1 and five planned in year 2 | No | Expect yes in 6 months | |||||||||||||||||||
19 | Engagement | We believe CPSP has "meaningfully engaged" with at least one country other than SA, Nepal, Taiwan, SL, China, India through their regional work (e.g. provided advice specific to that country on how to effectively regulate pesticides used in suicide, not presence at a multistakeholder workshop) | 40% | 70% | 85% | CPSP believes it will meaningfully engage with 5-15 countries over the grant period through this work | Yes | Uganda, T and T | |||||||||||||||||||
20 | Engagement | We believe CPSP has "meaningfully engaged" with at least five countries other than SA, Nepal, Taiwan, SL, China, India through their regional work | 20% | 45% | 65% | CPSP believes it will meaningfully engage with 5-15 countries over the grant period through this work | No | ||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Engagement | We believe CPSP has "meaningfully engaged" with at least ten countries other than SA, Nepal, Taiwan, SL, China, India through their regional work | 5% | 15% | 20% | CPSP believes it will meaningfully engage with 5-15 countries over the grant period through this work | No | ||||||||||||||||||||
22 | Policy change | We believe CPSP's engagements through their regional work contributed (>25%) to bans on pesticides that CPSP believes account for >20% of suicides in at least one country CPSP is not otherwise engaged with | 20% | 40% | Yes? | Maybe, T and T | |||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Policy change | We believe CPSP's engagements through their regional work contributed (>25%) to pesticides that CPSP believes account for >20% of suicides being banned in at least 3 countries CPSP is not otherwise engaged with | 15% | 30% | No | ||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | Policy change | We believe CPSP's work through their regional work contributed (>25%) to pesticides that CPSP believes account for >20% of suicides being banned in at least 5 countries CPSP is not otherwise engaged with | 5% | 10% | No | ||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | Individual countries | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | In Nepal, Sri Lanka (separate forecasts): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for <1% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 70% | 40% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement for this forecast | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
29 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 1-20% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 18% | 35% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement for this forecast | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
30 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 20-40% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 8% | 15% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement for this forecast | No | Looking in Nepal (have we had effect); SL (eyeing up implementation). Probably in 20-40% range best guess | ||||||||||||||||||||
31 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 40-60% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 4% | 7% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement for this forecast | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
32 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for >60% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 2% | 3% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement for this forecast | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
33 | In China: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for <1% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 85% | 70% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
35 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 1-20% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 10% | 20% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
36 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 20-40% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 3% | 5% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
37 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 40-60% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 2% | 4% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement | No | Thinks will be here. Tau going for this in China. Causal attribution to discuss | ||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Policy change | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for >60% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 1% | 1% | Do not have to see evidence of enforcement | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
39 | In Maharashtra | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for <1% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 75% | 50% | No | Complicated bc national ban will take 70-80%. (From previous). States may stimulate centre. Kind of complicated. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 1-20% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 15% | 30% | No | |||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 20-40% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 5% | 10% | No | |||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for 40-60% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 4% | 8% | No | |||||||||||||||||||||||
44 | We estimate that CPSP contributed to deregistering pesticides accounting for >60% of pesticide suicides (adjusted for our estimate of causal attribution) | 1% | 2% | No | |||||||||||||||||||||||
45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46 | Total policy changes | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
47 | Policy change | We estimate that this grant resulted in pesticides accounting for <100 suicides each year being banned (adjusted for our best guess of attribution to CPSP) | 50% | 20% | 1x cash (adjusting for uncertain enforcement and method substitution - see details on next sheet) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
48 | Policy change | We estimate that this grant resulted in pesticides accounting for 100-1,000 suicides each year being banned (adjusted for our best guess of attribution to CPSP) | 12% | 12% | 1-10x cash | ||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | Policy change | We estimate that this grant resulted in pesticides accounting for 1,000-3,000 suicides each year being banned (adjusted for our best guess of attribution to CPSP) | 20% | 28% | 10-30x cash | ||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | Policy change | We estimate that this grant resulted in pesticides accounting for 3,000-5,000 suicides each year being banned (adjusted for our best guess of attribution to CPSP) | 12% | 25% | 30x-50x cash | ||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Policy change | We estimate that this grant resulted in pesticides accounting for >5,000 suicides each year being banned (adjusted for our best guess of attribution to CPSP) | 6% | 15% | >50x cash | ||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | Timing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Timing | CPSP has over one year of remaining runway to continue the work expected in this grant | 95% | 45% | Yes | ||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | Timing | We make another grant to CPSP of over $500,000 | 10% | 20% | 75% | Over 500k to rule out small things; didn't think hard about the precise number | No | ||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Timing | We make another grant to CPSP of over $5 million | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | Timing | We make another grant to CPSP of over $10 million | 35% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Impact of past pesticide regulations by CPSP | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | Monitoring | CPSP is able to successfully gather data in Nepal which identifies the pesticides most commonly used in suicide in 2020 and 2021 | 85% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Monitoring | We see evidence that the ban on the tablet form of aluminium phosphide has been successfully enforced (e.g. it is available in <10% of shops). | 80% | This could either be because the suicide rate has meaningfully decreased, or evidence from surveying vendors | |||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | Conditional on the ban on the tablet form of aluminium phosphide being enforced and CPSP being able to successfully collect data on pesticide suicides in Nepal: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | Impact | Aluminium phosphide accounts for more than 400 poisoning deaths per year on average in the two years since it was deregistered | 20% | CPSP worked with the Central Police Forensic Science Laboratory to collect toxicology data on the pesticide used in suicides between 14 April 2019 and 12 Feb 2020. They identified 299 deaths from aluminium phosphide poisoning. We apply two adjustments: (i) multiplying by 365/304 to annualize the estimate (ii) Multiplying by 1.2 to account for likely underreporting of pesticide suicides. We have not thorough investigated (ii) but expect it is likely that toxicology is not completed for every poisoning death. Because we are uncertain about (ii), we apply only a small adjustment. That came to 431 estimated suicides | |||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | Impact | Aluminium phosphide accounts for 200-400 poisoning deaths per year on average in the two years since it was deregistered | 60% | CPSP worked with the Central Police Forensic Science Laboratory to collect toxicology data on the pesticide used in suicides between 14 April 2019 and 12 Feb 2020. They identified 299 deaths from aluminium phosphide poisoning. We apply two adjustments: (i) multiplying by 365/304 to annualize the estimate (ii) Multiplying by 1.2 to account for likely underreporting of pesticide suicides. We have not thorough investigated (ii) but expect it is likely that toxicology is not completed for every poisoning death. Because we are uncertain about (ii), we apply only a small adjustment. That came to 431 estimated suicides | |||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | Impact | Aluminium phosphide accounts for less than 200 poisoning deaths per year on average in the two years since it was deregistered | 20% | CPSP worked with the Central Police Forensic Science Laboratory to collect toxicology data on the pesticide used in suicides between 14 April 2019 and 12 Feb 2020. They identified 299 deaths from aluminium phosphide poisoning. We apply two adjustments: (i) multiplying by 365/304 to annualize the estimate (ii) Multiplying by 1.2 to account for likely underreporting of pesticide suicides. We have not thorough investigated (ii) but expect it is likely that toxicology is not completed for every poisoning death. Because we are uncertain about (ii), we apply only a small adjustment. That came to 431 estimated suicides | |||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | Conditional on CPSP being able to successfully collect data on pesticide suicides in Nepal: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | We believe that the bans of aluminium phosphide and dichlorvos prevented over 400 deaths per year in Nepal (after adjusting for method substitution) over two years | 50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | We believe that the bans of aluminium phosphide and dichlorvos prevented over 200 deaths per year in Nepal (after adjusting for method substitution) over two years | 70% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | We believe that the bans of aluminium phosphide and dichlorvos prevented over 100 deaths per year in Nepal (after adjusting for method substitution) over two years | 75% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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