ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
2
Company Information:
Input in Yellow Cells
3
SIMPLE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL & RELATIVE VALUATION
4
Company Name:APPLE
5
Company Ticker:AAPL =>
Go to finance.yahoo.com and type a company name and the ticker will pull up
6
Share Price on Valuation Date:$105.46 =>
Use the Stock Price, that is below the company name
7
Diluted Shares Outstanding5,580.00 =>
Click on "Key Statistics" and under the "Share Statistics" Column use the "Shares Outstanding" number, in millions
8
9
Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) Analysis
10
Go to finance.yahoo.com
11
Most Recent Revenue233,720.00 =>
On "Key Statistics" page enter "Revenue (ttm)",ttm means trailing-twelve-months, in millions
12
Most Recent Net Income$53,390.00 =>
On "Key Statistics" page enter "Net Income avl to Common (ttm)', in millions
13
Most Recent Free Cash Flow.55,860.00 =>
On "Key Statistics" page enter "Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm)", in millions
14
Key Assumptions:
=>
Play Around with different assumptions of growth rates (check out how it changes the Intrinsic Value and the Cash Flow Chart)
15
Growth rate for next 5 Years10% =>
How fast you expect the company's earnings to grow on average each year for the next 5 years
16
Terminal Growth Rate4.00% =>
How fast you expect the company's earnings to grow after 5 years to perpetuity
17
Discount Rate12.00% =>
In most cases this is 10-12%, and represents the company's cost of capital. In most cases just leave this constant.
18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 30 8
19
Projected Annual Forecast
20
PeriodActualFuture Yr 1Future Yr 2Future Yr 3Future Yr 4Future Yr 5Future Yr 6Future Yr 7 =>
Terminal Value
21
Revenue$233,720.00 $257,092.0 $282,801.2 $311,081.3 $342,189.5 $376,408.4 $391,464.7 $407,123.3 $423,408.3
22
Revenue Growth Rate (%)10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
23
Net Income$53,390.00 $43,397.1 $47,736.8 $52,510.5 $57,761.6 $63,537.7 $66,079.2 $68,722.4 $71,471.3
24
Net Margin (%)0.1688016.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% =>
% of Profits per Revenue. Can the company keep their margins over time?
25
Cash Flow55,860.00 $10,283.7 $11,312.0 $12,443.3 $13,687.6 $15,056.3 $15,658.6 $16,284.9 $16,936.3
26
Cash Flow Margin (%)0.044.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% =>
% of Cash earned for every dollar of Revenue
27
28
Unlevered Cash Flows$10,283.7 $11,312.0 $12,443.3 $13,687.6 $15,056.3 $15,658.6 $16,284.9 $211,704 =>
Sum of all future cash flows after Yr 7
29
Discount Rate12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% =>
Discounted back to present value at a discount rate, Cash today is worth more than cash tomorrow
30
Discounted Cash Flows$9,181.9 $9,017.9 $8,856.9 $8,698.7 $8,543.4 $7,933.1 $7,366.5 $85,503.7 =>
The value of the Cash Flow today
31
Sum of present value of cash flows$4,633,317.7 Year 1Year 2 Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 11Year 12Year 13Year 14Year 15Year 16Year 17Year 18Year 19Year 20Year 21Year 22Year 23
32
Shares Outstanding 1,770,000.0 $10,283.7 $11,312.0 $12,443.3 $13,687.6 $15,056.3 $15,658.6 $16,284.9 $16,936.3 $17,613.8 $18,318.3 $19,051.1 $19,813.1 $20,605.6 $21,429.9 $22,287.1 $23,178.5 $24,105.7 $25,069.9 $26,072.7 $27,115.6 $28,200.2 $29,328.2 $30,501.4
33
Intrinsic Value per Share $ 2.6 =>
This is your estimate of how much the stock is worth using the Discounted Cash Flows method!
34
Currrent Share Price 105.46
35
Upside Potential-97.5%Company: APPLE Graph of Future Cash Flows
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
Relative Valuation Analysis
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
Projected Annual Forecast
67
PeriodActualFuture Yr 1Future Yr 2Future Yr 3Future Yr 4Future Yr 5
68
Revenue$484,668.0 $257,092.0 $282,801.2 $311,081.3 $342,189.5 $376,408.4
69
Net Income$53,390.0 $43,397.1 $47,736.8 $52,510.5 $57,761.6 $63,537.7
70
Earnings per Share (EPS)$10.74 $7.78 $8.55 $9.41 $10.35 $11.39 =>
Use earnings per share 3 Yrs in the future
71
72
Intrinsic Value per Share0.0 =>
This is your estimate of how much the stock is worth using the relative valuation method!
73
Currrent Share Price 105.5
74
Upside Potential-100.0%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100