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Design Challenge for EnergyExcursions.com Course:
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Energize the Future (Creating Your Own Energy Mix)
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The United States used 92.7 quads of energy in 2020. Those numbers are plotted as % of total energy use in the upper pie chart at right. We are less than twenty years from replacing a large portion of our gasoline and diesel use (at 32.2 quads in the table below) through a transition to an all-electric transportation world in 2040. In our scenario, if the United States moves away from gasoline and diesel as a primary energy source for transportation, we fall short of our 2020 needs delivered from this source by 21.9 quads (see the change column number in Table A).
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As a strategy to make up for that gap (loss), let’s assume for our scenario an increase in renewable energy in the U.S. of 4.5 quads (~50% increase) to 13.6 quads. Furthermore, our 2040 scenario includes an increase in natural gas in the U.S. of 3 quads (~3% increase). Natural gas is commonly touted as a bridge fuel into the future, given it has a much lower carbon footprint (less carbon emitted per BTU) than other fossil fuels such as coal. Even with the addition of renewables and natural gas to partially offset the reduction in petroleum, we would still face a total gap of 14.4 quads of energy generation in the U.S. (see Table A) based on our 2020 use. But there will be an even bigger gap if we plan for 2040 projections of total U.S. energy needs of 101.7 quads (an increase of 9 quads from 2020 use). What do we need to do to compensate for this gap? Add even more natural gas? Increase nuclear? Ramp up renewables to more than 50%? What would you do?
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Your role here is to serve as the primary decision maker for choosing the power mix that will satisfy our increased demand come 2040. What sources will you rely on more heavily? When choosing your mix remember the information you've gained from the previous topic pages.
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Here are the 2020 energy mix numbers and the 2040 projections we discussed in the lesson once more. Energy for each power source is measured in quadrillion BTU's (quads). The 2020 U.S. Energy Mix is plotted on the pie chart at right.
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TABLE A
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FUEL2020 Data
2040 Projection Considerations
CHANGE
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Oil 32.210.3-21.9
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Natural Gas 31.534.53
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Coal 9.29.20
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Nuclear 8.28.20
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Hydro-electric 2.52.50
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Renewables (wind, solar + other)9.113.64.5
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TOTAL 92.778.3-14.4
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Assume increased demand of 9 quads needed in 2040
TOTAL must = 101.7
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To fill the power gap we must satisfy a demand of 101.7 quads in 2040.
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NOW IT'S YOUR TURN
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To complete the task assign your own 2040 supply to the various primary energy sources (only those highlighted in yellow) to satisfy the energy demand of 101.7 quads. Keep in mind the information you learned about the benefits and challenges of changing each energy source. Once you are finished, refer to the questions below that will help you reflect on the assignment. As you alter your numbers, you will see the pie chart to the right of this table update.
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Enter your #s in
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TABLE Bthe yellow boxes
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FUEL2020 DataYour 2040 ProjectionsCHANGE
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Oil32.210.3-21.9
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Natural Gas 31.534.53
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Coal 9.29.20
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Nuclear 8.28.20
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Hydro-electric 2.52.50
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Wind34.41.4
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Solar1.34.43.1
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Other Renewables*4.84.80
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TOTAL 92.778.3-14.4
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*Keep Other Renewables the sameAssume increased demand of 9 quads needed in 2040
TOTAL must = 101.7
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U.S. energy consumption by source in 2020, with a potential scenario for 2040. Energy measured in quadrillion BTUs (quads). *Actual numbers reported by EIA may differ between publications as reports of actual consumption are updated. For this study please refer to the April 2021 EIA data. ** Sum of components on EIA publications may vary slightly due to independent rounding.
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source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, April 2021, preliminary data.
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source:American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. (2021, June 28). As U.S. Decarbonizes, Here’s How to Meet Energy Needs in Seven Challenging Sectors.
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Think about how your future energy portfolio will look different from our consumption in 2020 by looking at the CHANGE column in Table B.
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Reflection Questions:
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1. What primary energy source did you choose to supply the most demand (quads)? What benefits do you see in choosing this power source? What challenges might be associated with this increase?
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2. What power source did you increase the most (consider the percentage of change) and why? What challenges might be associated with this increase?
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3. What power source did you choose to supply the least demand (quads)? Why did you choose this power source? Are there any challenges to lowering the use of this primary energy source?
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4. What power source did you decrease the most (consider the percentage of change) and why? What challenges might be associated with this decrease?
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