Job search for full-time focus area

Make cause-specific hire

http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/biosecurity

More in-depth writeup forthcoming

Relatively strong opportunities

Synthetic pandemic (possibly optimized to maximize death toll)

High: could come from a major natural pandemic (natural pandemics are common, could happen at any time, and are hard to predict), and would be fairly likely to occur if biotech capabilities continued to increase and someone accidentally or intentionally released a pathogen engineered/enhanced to maximize death tolls

High: "highest-damage" scenario is one of the easiest ways to imagine a Level 2 event

Many known (and expensive) preparations (e.g. disease surveillance, development and stockpile of countermeasures, improvement of preparatory plans and response capacity, and efforts (including regulation) to decrease the proliferation and increase the safety of risky emerging technology such as dual use research). Many gaps exist despite substantial government funding; philanthropy could fill gaps directly and/or aim to influence government funding.

Trial hire for full-time focus area

Medium-depth investigation, trial hire

http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/ai-risk

Medium writeup forthcoming after investigation complete

Highly uncertain; credible opportunities exist but are difficult to evaluate

Extremely powerful artificial-intelligence agent with misaligned values

Use of extremely powerful artificial intelligence to disrupt geopolitics

High: would likely result from either of the scenarios described, though likelihood of these scenarios is hard to assess

High: "highest-damage" scenario is one of the easiest ways to imagine a Level 2 event

Additional technical research aimed at ensuring the robustness, predictability, and goal-alignment of advanced artificial intelligence systems; research in law, ethics, economics, and policy related to advanced artificial intelligence; and/or education related to such research

Generalist priority 2 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

Infrastructure-building grant(s), preferably major

http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/geoengineering

Possibly very strong opportunities (pending research on robustness of current system)

Geopolitical challenges from unilateral use of geoengineering or catastrophic effects of climate change

Major climatic impacts of either climate change or geoengineering

Medium-high: scenarios are relatively likely ("high-damage scenario" extremely likely) but Level 1 event would probably not result unless geopolitical instability were driven to extreme levels (e.g. global war) as a result

Medium: risk comes mostly from extreme war scenarios, and even then it's hard to see how these could lead directly to a Level 2 event

Policy-oriented research on how best to govern decisions about research and deployment. Building capacity and developing governance infrastructure. Scientific research on the effects of potential deployment. Very little funding in this space currently.

Generalist priority 2 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

Fund research on electrical grid robustness

http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/geomagnetic-storms

Relatively strong opportunities

Regional (~continent-wide), sustained blackouts

Cascade of failing transformers, expensive and logistically challenging to respond to

Medium-low: would probably require highest-damage scenario (which appears quite unlikely based on our review), and even this would not necessarily be globally destabilizing

Low: even most extreme scenario probably could not cause Level 2 event

Hardening electrical grid; operational mitigation (such as unplugging components in advance of a predicted storm); building spare transformers; research.

Generalist priority 2 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

Evaluate specific grant opportunities

No (unless grants are made)

N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks)

N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks)

N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks)

N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks)

Generalist priority 3 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

More cause-level investigation

Medium; highly uncertain and cross-cutting

Global collapse of agriculture from extreme climate change, large volcanic eruption, nuclear winter, or other possibilities

Regional collapse of agriculture from extreme climate change, large volcanic eruption, nuclear winter, or other possibilities

Medium-low: scenarios listed are fairly extreme/unlikely

Medium: total collapse of agriculture could lead to Level 2 event. Idea that preparations would matter much in this case requires further conjunctivity.

We have seen a proposed research agenda but so far have not found a consensus that it is promising. More attention to food stockpiling is also a possibility.

Generalist priority 3 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

Monitoring cause for outstanding opportunities

http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/nuclear-security

Not many suitable remaining opportunities

Mass casualties and/or nuclear winter following war between major nuclear powers (U.S. and Russia are the plausible candidates today but proliferation or increased stockpiles could create additional candidates)

Mass casualties and/or "nuclear autumn" following war between moderate nuclear powers (such as contemporary Pakistan and India)

High: would probably require all-out nuclear war, would be quite likely in that case

Medium: risk comes mostly from extreme war scenarios, and even then it's hard to see how these could lead directly to a Level 2 event

Policy development in countries other than the U.S. has little funding but would be very difficult. Some experts say policy advocacy and public engagement in the U.S. are underfunded.

Potential environmental risks from engineered microorganisms

Generalist priority 3 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term, though we expect to finish shallow investigation)

Complete shallow investigation

Shallow writeup forthcoming

Still investigating specifics, but likely to conclude that risk level is low

Still investigating specifics, but likely to conclude there are few opportunities

Still investigating specifics

Still investigating specifics

Still investigating specifics, but probably will conclude that relative risk is moderate-low

Still investigating specifics

Convenings to analyze potential risks and develop safety guidelines for relevant technologies (genomically recoded organisms, mirror organisms, artificial photosynthesis)

Anthropogenic climate change (other than geoengineering)

Generalist priority 4 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

http://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change

Not many suitable remaining opportunities

Geopolitical challenges following disastrous climate change

Major damage to global agriculture and/or refugees due to rising water levels

Medium-high: scenarios are relatively likely ("high-damage scenario" extremely likely) but Level 1 event would probably not result unless geopolitical instability were driven to extreme levels (e.g. global war) as a result

Medium: risk comes mostly from extreme war scenarios, and even then it's hard to see how these could lead directly to a Level 2 event

R&D on clean tech, adaptation preparations, and working toward carbon pricing are all possibilities but all generally highly funded already.

Generalist priority 4 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

http://www.givewell.org/shallow/volcanoes

Not many suitable remaining opportunities

Low but uncertain

Global collapse of agriculture following major eruption

Major eruption cools atmosphere, interferes with travel and agriculture, may increase risk of conflict

Low: scenarios are quantifiably low-probability, especially the "highest-damage scenario" (probably necessary for Level 1 event)

Low: scenarios are quantifiably low-probability, especially the "highest-damage scenario"

Have heard few ideas for interventions other than research or improved prediction. Very little funding currently.

Generalist priority 4 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/atomically-precise-manufacturing

We are not aware of many suitable remaining opportunities, but it's possible some would exist if the area received more attention

N/A (not prioritized)

Nano-scale machines self-replicate to an extreme degree, leading to "grey goo" scenario

Weaponized atomically precise manufacturing used in global war

Medium-low: would probably require global war, and in that case the specific contribution of this technology would be questionable

Medium-low: "highest-damage scenario" seems highly unlikely

We have not heard strong ideas for interventions focused specifically on mitigating risks. Highly uncertain how much better proposals could be if the area received more attention.

Generalist priority 5 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

http://www.givewell.org/shallow/asteroid-detection

Moderate opportunities

N/A (not prioritized)

Impact from object >10 km in diameter

Impact from object >1km in diameter

Low: scenarios are quantifiably low-probability, especially the "highest-damage scenario" (probably necessary for Level 1 event)

Low: scenarios are quantifiably low-probability, especially the "highest-damage scenario"

Tracking smaller asteroids, along the lines of http://sentinelmission.org/ . Largest asteroids already tracked.

Generalist priority 5 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

http://www.givewell.org/shallow/antibiotic-resistance

Relatively strong opportunities

N/A (not prioritized)

Complete failure of antibiotics

Failure of some antibiotics

Low: hard to picture how scenarios would lead to Level 1 event

Low: hard to picture how scenarios would lead to Level 2 event

More R&D on future antibiotics, as well as attempts to prevent antibiotic overuse. There is already a reasonable amount of funding in this area, but could be room for more.

Generalist priority 5 (unlikely to be a priority in the near term)

http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/disaster-shelters

Medium-low; highly uncertain and cross-cutting

Not many suitable remaining opportunities

N/A (not prioritized)

Major (synthetic?) pandemic or other situation in which shelters are key

Scenario (such as particular global-war or pandemic scenarios) where shelters could help key decisionmakers survive or put individuals in a much stronger position to recover.

Medium-low: covers many scenarios, but shelters being crucial (especially on the margin) requires a lot of conjunctivity

Medium-low: covers many scenarios, but shelters being crucial (especially on the margin) requires a lot of conjunctivity, and is particularly unlikely regarding potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence

Could build more or improved disaster shelters, but believe we are already at the point of diminishing returns.