2023-02-23 SK 2050 Scenarios - 4 isn't enough

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR
1	Design Life	New Projects		Facility Code	Name / Link	MW Capacity	Type	In-Service	Expected De-com or Re-furb	Manual De-Com	De-Com/Re-Furb	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049	2050	2051	2052	2053	2054	2055

2	Hydro	100		H1A	Wellington Power Station	5	Hydro	1939	2039		2039	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Coal	30		H1B	Waterloo Power Station	8	Hydro	1961	2061		2061	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
4	Nat. gas	30		H1C	Charlot River Power Station	10	Hydro	1980	2080		2080	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
5	Wind	25		H2	Island Falls Hydroelectric Station	111	Hydro	1930	2030		2030	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Solar	25		H3	Nipawin Hydroelectric Station	255	Hydro	1985	2085		2085	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255	255
7	Nuclear	60		H4	E.B. Campbell Hydroelectric Station	289	Hydro	1963	2063		2063	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289
8	Flare Gas	30	?	H5	Coteau Creek Hydroelectric Station	186	Hydro	1969	2069		2069	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186	186
9	Battery	20	?	C1	Poplar River Power Station	582	Coal	1981	2011	2030	2030	582	582	582	582	582	582	582	582	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Waste Heat	30	?	C2	Boundary Dam Power Station	531	Coal	1970	2000	2030	2030	531	531	531	531	531	531	531	531	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Imports	100		C3	Shand Power Station	276	Coal	1992	2022	2030	2030	276	276	276	276	276	276	276	276	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Bio-Refinery	30	?	NG1	Meadow Lake Power Station	41	Nat. gas	1984	2014		2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Sawmill waste	25	?	NG2	Meridian Cogeneration Station	228	Nat. gas	1999	2029		2029	228	228	228	228	228	228	228	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Wind/Solar	25		NG3	North Battleford Power Station	289	Nat. gas	2013	2043		2043	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15				NG4	Yellowhead Power Station	135	Nat. gas	2010	2040		2040	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16				NG5	Ermine Power Station	90	Nat. gas	2009	2039		2039	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17				NG6	Landis Power Station	78	Nat. gas	1999	2029		2029	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18				NG7	Cory Cogeneration Station	234	Nat. gas	2003	2033		2033	234	234	234	234	234	234	234	234	234	234	234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	1970			NG8	Queen Elizabeth Power Station	623	Nat. gas	2015	2045		2045	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	623	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	1981	11		NG9	Spy Hill Power Station	89	Nat. gas	2011	2041		2041	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	1984	3		NG10	Chinook Power Station	353	Nat. gas	2019	2049		2049	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	353	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	1992	8		W1	Riverhurst Wind Facility	10	Wind	2021	2046		2046	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	1999	7		W2	Western Lily Wind Power Facility	20	Wind	2019	2044		2044	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	1999	0		W3	Morse Wind Power Facility	23	Wind	2015	2040		2040	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	2003	4		W4	Blue Hill Wind Facility	175	Wind	2022	2047		2047	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	175	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	2009	6		W5	Red Lily Wind Power Facility	26	Wind	2011	2036		2036	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	2010	1		W6	Centennial Wind Power Facility	150	Wind	2006	2031		2031	150	150	150	150	150	150	150	150	150	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	2011	1		W7	Cypress Wind Power Facility	11	Wind	2002	2027		2027	11	11	11	11	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	2013	2		W8	Golden South Wind Facility	200	Wind	2022	2047		2047	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	2015	2		S1	Highfield Solar Energy Facility	10	Solar	2021	2046		2046	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	2019	4		S2	Pesâkâstêw Solar Facility	10	Solar	2022	2047		2047	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	2023	4		S3	Awasis Solar Facility	10	Solar	2022	2047		2047	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	2025	2		B1	Meadow Lake Tribal Council (MLTC) Bioenergy Centre	8	Sawmill waste	2022	2047		2047	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	2028	3			Manitoba Hydro	290	Imports	2000	2100		2100	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290	290
35				PP1	NRGreen Kerrobert Heat Recovery Facility	5	Waste heat	2006	2036		2036	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	2.416666667			PP2	NRGreen Loreburn Heat Recovery Facility	5	Waste heat	2008	2038		2038	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
37				PP3	NRGreen Estlin Heat Recovery Facility	5	Waste heat	2008	2038		2038	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
38				PP4	NRGreen Alameda Heat Recovery Facility	5	Waste heat	2008	2038		2038	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
39					Battery Energy Storage - Regina	20	Battery	2023	2043		2043	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40					Bekevar Wind Facility	200	Wind	2023	2048		2048	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
41					Ermine Power Station Extention	46	Nat. gas	2025	2055		2055	0	0	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46
42					Estevan Solar Facility	100	Solar	2026	2051		2051	0	0	0	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	0	0	0	0
43					Foxtail Grove Solar	10	Solar	2023	2048		2048	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
44					Great Plains Power Station	360	Nat. gas	2024	2054		2054	0	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	360	0
45					Potential Lanigan Gas Power Station	370	Nat. gas	2028	2058		2058	0	0	0	0	0	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370	370
46					Kopahawakenum Flare to Power Project	15	Flare Gas	2023	2053		2053	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	0	0
47					Yellowhead Power Station Upgrade	46	Nat. gas	2025	2055		2055	0	0	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46
48					SMR #1	300	Nuclear	2034	2094		2094	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300
49					SMR #2	300	Nuclear	2037	2097		2097	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300
50					SMR #3	300	Nuclear	2040	2100		2100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300
51					SMR #4	300	Nuclear	2042	2102		2102	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300
52					Southwest Power Pool Interconnect	650	Imports	2027	2127		2127	0	0	0	0	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650	650
53					Prairie Green Renewable Energy Facility	37	Bio-Refinery	2024	2054		2054	0	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	0
54					New Wind (2027)	400	Wind	2027	2052		2052	0	0	0	0	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	0	0	0
55					New Solar (2027)	300	Solar	2027	2052		2052	0	0	0	0	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	0	0	0
56					New Wind/Solar	1125	Wind	2035	2060		2060	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125	1125
57					New Wind/Solar	375	Solar	2035	2060		2060	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375	375
58
59
60											TOTAL CAPACITY	5580	5977	6069	6169	7519	7878	7878	7572	6072	5922	5922	5988	7488	7488	7757	7757	7742	7947	7789	8000	8000	7691	7671	7048	7028	6625	6415	6062	6062	5962	5262	5247	4850
61											Year	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049	2050	2051	2052	2053	2054	2055
62											Hydro	864	864	864	864	864	864	864	864	753	753	753	753	753	753	753	753	753	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748	748
63											Coal	1389	1389	1389	1389	1389	1389	1389	1389	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
64											Nat. gas	2119	2479	2571	2571	2571	2941	2941	2635	2635	2635	2635	2401	2401	2401	2401	2401	2401	2311	2176	2087	2087	1798	1798	1175	1175	1175	1175	822	822	822	822	822	462
65											Wind	815	815	815	815	1215	1204	1204	1204	1204	1054	1054	1054	2179	2179	2153	2153	2153	2153	2130	2130	2130	2130	2110	2110	2100	1725	1525	1525	1525	1525	1125	1125	1125
66											Solar	40	40	40	140	440	440	440	440	440	440	440	440	815	815	815	815	815	815	815	815	815	815	815	815	805	785	775	775	775	675	375	375	375
67											Nuclear	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	300	300	300	600	600	600	900	900	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200	1200
68											Flare Gas	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	0	0
69											Battery	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
70											Waste Heat	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
71											Imports	290	290	290	290	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940
72											Bio-Refinery	0	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	0
73											Sawmill waste	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
74											Dispatchable MW	4435	4832	4924	4924	4924	5294	5294	4988	3488	3488	3488	3554	3554	3554	3849	3849	3834	4039	3904	4115	4115	3806	3806	3183	3183	3175	3175	2822	2822	2822	2822	2807	2410
75											Variable MW	855	855	855	955	1655	1644	1644	1644	1644	1494	1494	1494	2994	2994	2968	2968	2968	2968	2945	2945	2945	2945	2925	2925	2905	2510	2300	2300	2300	2200	1500	1500	1500
76											Import MW	290	290	290	290	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940	940
77									1.005		Peak Load MW	3910	3929.55	3949.19775	3968.943739	3988.788457	4008.7324	4028.776062	4048.919942	4069.164542	4089.510364	4109.957916	4130.507706	4151.160244	4171.916046	4192.775626	4213.739504	4234.808201	4255.982242	4277.262154	4298.648464	4320.141707	4341.742415	4363.451127	4385.268383	4407.194725	4429.230699	4451.376852	4473.633736	4496.001905	4518.481915	4541.074324	4563.779696	4586.598594
78											% Renewable	36	34	34	35	38	36	36	38	45	44	44	43	55	55	52	52	52	51	52	50	50	52	52	57	57	54	53	56	56	55	49	49	52
79											% Emission-Free	36	34	34	35	38	36	36	38	45	44	44	48	59	59	60	60	60	62	63	65	65	68	68	74	74	72	71	75	75	75	72	72	77
80											% Variable	15	14	14	15	22	21	21	22	27	25	25	25	40	40	38	38	38	37	38	37	37	38	38	42	41	38	36	38	38	37	29	29	31
81
82
83
84	ASSUMPTIONS
85	1. Design life of assets from table listed above.
86	2. If 30 years is too conservative (short) of a design life for natural gas plants, that assumption may be bolstered by the fact that carbon prices increasing will make gas plants less attractive.
87	3. Coal phased out in 2030 per federal regs.
88	4. "No new hydro capacity" in Saskatchewan.
89	5. 2035 wind/solar installed 4:1 ratio like forecasted install base.
90	6. Peak load increases at 0.5% per year from 2023 (2023 peak is from 2022). Pretty conservative assumption if we are to "electrify everything"
91	7. The further out we go in time, the less certain any projects are (and projects will not have been proposed yet for the 2030s and beyond)
92	8. Assuming imports are NOT dispatchable - if our neighhours like SPP have renewable-heavy grids, they may not be able to provide power when we need it most.
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100