Airbnb Model.xlsx

	A	B	C	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
1	^^ Feel free to click File above and download				Base Year	1	2	3	4	5
2					2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
3	GBV Growth Rate (5-yr Avg)	8.5%	(Core market and expanding market penetration, experiences, other services?)	Gross Booking Value	$ 81,780,000,000.00	$ 88,731,300,000.00	$ 96,273,460,500.00	$ 104,456,704,642.50	$ 113,335,524,537.11	$ 122,969,044,122.77
4				Revenue % of GBV	13.60%	13.60%	14.08%	14.57%	15.08%	16%
5	Target Revenue as % of GBV	15.50%	(Assumes that "take rate" rises as Airbnb eventually unveils sponsored listings)	Revenue	$ 11,122,080,000.00	$ 12,067,456,800.00	$ 13,550,489,565.38	$ 15,215,779,969.59	$ 17,085,726,605.38	$ 19,060,201,839.03
6	Year of Convergence	2029		Operating Margin %	15%	17.60%	20.65%	24.23%	28.43%	28%
7	Implied Revenue 5yr CAGR	11.38%	Will be > than GBV growth rate if revenue as % of GBV is higher than 13.6%	Operating Profits	$ 1,668,312,000.00	$ 2,123,872,396.80	$ 2,798,266,431.85	$ 3,686,801,069.31	$ 4,857,472,458.65	$ 5,336,856,514.93
8	Target Operating Margin	28%		Growth Rate		27.31%	31.75%	31.75%	31.75%	9.87%
9	Year of Convergence	2029	(Scales toward target over time)
10				Shares Outstanding	638,000,000.00	631,620,000.00	625,303,800.00	619,050,762.00	612,860,254.38	606,731,651.84
11	Shares Outstanding Growth Rate	-1.00%	(Company has bought back aggressively sice Q3 2022 and stock-based comp should be slowing, enabling a share count decline over time)	Implied Amount of Estimated Share Repurchases		$ 643,597,696.00	$ 706,632,937.34	$ 775,841,975.87	$ 894,420,959.87	$ 1,212,921,935.21
12	Exit Multiple of Operating profits in 2029	22.5		% of Operating Profits		30%	25%	21%	18%	23%
13	Current Multiple (EV/EBIT)	45	(Should be lower as ABNB will be a more mature biz in 2029)	Operating Profit Per Share	$ 2.61	$ 3.36	$ 4.48	$ 5.96	$ 7.93	$ 8.80
14	Median EV/EBIT Multiple Since 2020	38		Exit Multiple (EV/EBIT)	45	30	25.00	20.8	18.2	22.5	(Converges toward 2029 number as Airbnb matures)
15	Current Price	$125
16	Implied Return at Current Prices	11.20%		Exit Valuation (in 2029 dollars)	$197.91
17				Present Enterprise Value Per Share	$134.70
18				Net Debt Per Share	$14.11	(based on latest $9 billion of net debt figure)
19		=	Input to modify	Equity Value Per Share	$148.80	(based on target multiple input in A12)
20				Implied Margin of Safety	16.00%
21
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23					Scenario Analysis Approach				(Feel free to adjust range of muliples and their weightings to reflect your thesis)
24					Weighted Intrinsic Value	2029 EV/EBIT Exit Multiple	Weighting	Present Intrinsic Value
25				Equity Value Per Share	$143.90	16	5%	$109.89
26				Implied Margin of Safety (Weighted)	13.14%	18	7.50%	$121.86
27						20	12%	$133.84
28						22	15.00%	$145.81
29						24	20.00%	$157.78
30						26	15.00%	$169.75
31						28	10%	$181.73
32						30	7.50%	$193.70
33						32	5.00%	$205.67
34						34	2.5%	$217.65
35							100%
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