Growth and randomista development
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ABCD
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Comparative CBA: Randomista vs. growthGrowth caseRandomista caseSource:
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Cost in $ (e.g. to a government, billionaire philanthropist, EA community)1bn1bnPritchett
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Benefits: Randomista development
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ROI of EBD intervention (Graduation approach / Cash-transfers, Malaria Consortium)1.75.4Givewell CEA
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Population of developing country (Ethiopia)102,403,196102,403,196World Bank
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GDP/capita increases via EBD (just for intuition)$17$52
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GDP increase via EBD1.7bn5.4bn
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Benefits: Research on and advocacy for growth-friendly policies
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Cost36m36mPritchett
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NPV (@ 5%) of output loss from growth deceleration relative to counter-factual growth
3572bn455bnPritchett
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Probability that $36m leads to creation of think tank50%10%Pritchett
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Probability that think tank affects growth episode10%1%Pritchett
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GDP increase (EV)178.58bn455.44mPritchett
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ROI of growth interventions4,96113
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Growth is X times more effective than EBD29182.4
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