FLORIDA SIMULATION
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ABCDEFGH
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Current Formula:Santorum 60% Huck5% McCain
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FLORIDARomney: 08 Vote T35% McCain50% Rudy
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Paul: 08 Vote T50 % Rudy
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County/County Seat/LocationGingrich: REST
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Alachua/Gainesville/Gainesville2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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4,177/21%5,455/28%OUT6,655/34%1,128/6%1,814/9%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 110,266
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 124,0782012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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12.5% Voter Increase9,700/39%8,745/36%OUTOUT2,412/10%3,752/15%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 139,588
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GOP Needs: 57,231
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Hold Obama: 82,357PROJECTED VOTES:24,609ACTUAL VOTES:
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Projected 2012 Primary Votes: 24,609
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2008 Primary Turnout: 40%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 43%47,762/43%62,504/56%LIKELY DEM48,513/39%75,565/60%LIKELY DEMGOP NEEDS 41%
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Baker/Macclenny/Jacksonville2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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566/29%742/37%OUT455/23%57/3%124/6%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 9,918
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 10,9992012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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11% Voter Increase849/35%968/40%OUTOUT152/6%442/18%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 12,209
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GOP Needs: 9,645
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Hold Obama: 2,564PROJECTED VOTES:2,411ACTUAL VOTES:
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Projected 2012 Primary Votes:
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2008 Primary Turnout: 22%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 25%7,738/78%2,180/22%STRONG GOP8,672/79%2,327/21%STRONG GOPGOP NEEDS 79%
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Bay/Panama City/Panama City2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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4,747/20%7,540/33%OUT7,304/32%826/4%2,205/9%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 74,469
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 80,3362012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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8% Voter Increase8,718/34%11,232/43%OUTOUT2,156/8%3,767/15%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 86,7637,645/36%7,701/36%1,785/8%3,763/18%
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GOP Needs: 61,602
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Hold Obama: 25,161PROJECTED VOTES:25,873ACTUAL VOTES:20,894
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Projected 2012 Primary Votes:
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2008 Primary Turnout: 40%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 42%53,401/71%21,068/28%STRONG GOP56,683/70%23,653/29%STONG GOPGOP NEEDS 71%
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Bradford/Starke/NE FL2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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701/31%721/32%OUT606/27%54/2%145/6%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 10,801
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 11,5662012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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7% Voter Increase859/34%1,008/40%OUTOUT146/6%499/20%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 12,376
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GOP Needs: 8,663
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Hold Obama: 3,713PROJECTED VOTES:2,512ACTUAL VOTES:
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Projected 2012 Primary Votes:
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2008 Primary Turnout: 27%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 29%7,557/70%3,244/30%STRONG GOP8,136/70%3,430/29%STRONG GOPGOP NEEDS 70%
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Brevard/Viera/Melbourne2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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11,594/14%27,017/31%OUT31,338/36%3,623/4%12,229/14%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 263,377
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 285,2092012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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8% Voter Increase34,125/34%44,242/44%OUTOUT10,735/11%10,945/11%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 308,026
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GOP Needs: 178,655
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Hold Obama: 129,371PROJECTED VOTES:100,047ACTUAL VOTES:
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Projected 2012 Primary Votes:
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2008 Primary Turnout: 54%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 56%153,068/58%110,309/42%LIKELY GOP157,589/55%127,620/44%LEANS GOPGOP NEEDS 58%
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Broward/Ft Lauderdale/So Fla MSA2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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10,507/11%24,364/24%OUT41,448/42%3,130/3%19,071/19%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 698,547
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 730,3692012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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4.5% Voter Increase39,325/35%48,547/43%OUTOUT13,622/12%10,702/10%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 763,236
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GOP Needs: 267,133
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Hold Obama: 496,103PROJECTED VOTES:112,196ACTUAL VOTES:
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Projected 2012 Primary Votes:
75
2008 Primary Turnout: 41%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 42%244,674/35%453,873/64%LIKELY DEM237,729/33%492,640/67%LIKELY DEMGOP NEEDS 35%
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Calhoun/Blountstown/Panhandle2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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165/30%112/21%OUT216/39%18/3%29/5%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 5,898
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 6,1662012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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4.5% Voter Increase230/39%202/34%OUTOUT36/6%118/20%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 6,443286/41%180/26%49/7%153/23%
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GOP Needs: 4,510
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Hold Obama: 1,933PROJECTED VOTES:586ACTUAL VOTES:668
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Projected 2012 Primary Votes:
87
2008 Primary Turnout: 12%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 13%3,782/63%2,116/36%LIKELY GOP4,345/70%1,821/29%STRONG GOPGOP NEEDS 70%
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Charlotte/Punta Gorda/PtChr-Punta 2008 Huckabee2008 Romney2008 Thompson2008 McCain2008 Paul2008 Guiliani2008 Hunter
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2,433/10%8,350/32%OUT9,779/38%807/3%3,827/15%OUT
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Total 2004 Gen Votes: 78,684
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Total 2008 Gen Votes: 84,2362012 Gingrich2012 Romney2012 Perry2012 Bachmann2012 Paul2012 Santorum2012 Huntsman
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7% Voter Increase9,521/33%13,722/48%OUTOUT2,971/10%2,556/9%OUT
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Projected 2012 Votes: 90,133
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GOP Needs: 50,474
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Hold Obama: 39,659PROJECTED VOTES:28,770ACTUAL VOTES:
98
Projected 2012 Primary Votes:
99
2008 Primary Turnout: 56%2004 Bush2008 KerryTrend2008 McCain2008 ObamaTrend2012
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2012 PRIMARY Turnout: 57%44,428/56%34,256/43%LIKELY GOP45,205/53%39,031/46%LEANS GOPGOP NEEDS 56%
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