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INDIAN LOK SABHA ELECTION MODEL
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Historical baseline backtest + editable constituency scenario forecast
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MetricResult
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2024 constituencies542
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Matched to 2019525
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Unmatched / changed names17
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Correct baseline predictions319
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Baseline accuracy (matched only)60.76%
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Important note
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This is a simple previous-election-winner baseline, not a full forecast model. Accuracy excludes constituencies without a reliable 2019 match. The 2019 margin is shown only as a historical margin proxy, not a calibrated probability.
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SCENARIO MODEL STATUS
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Constituencies in scenario model542
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Base scenario winner changes vs 20240
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Downside scenario winner changes vs 2024129
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Upside scenario winner changes vs 20240
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Scenario assumptionsEdit yellow cells on Forecast Inputs
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Probability caveatLogistic heuristic; not empirically calibrated
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Important model caveatThe scenario model assumes only the 2024 winner and runner-up are contenders. It uses editable state-level margin swings and does not incorporate current polls, alliances, candidate changes, or other future-election data. Treat outputs as scenario analysis, not a prediction.
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