Population heterogeneity model (Egypt)

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	P	Q	R	S
1	Day	N	S	I	R	cumul I	cumul I (%)	Future cumul I (%)	tau	Observed new I	Test positivity	Est. actual new I	S->I	I->R	beta	gamma	alpha (exponent)	R0

2	12/26/2021	102300000.00	81976422.00	36078.00	20287500.00	8635.56	0.01	7.04	0.18	859.00		11167	8636	7576	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
3	12/27/2021	102300000.00	81967786.44	37137.18	20295076.38	17523.08	0.02	7.03	0.18	851.57		11070	8888	7799	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
4	12/28/2021	102300000.00	81958898.92	38225.89	20302875.19	26669.48	0.03	7.02	0.18	846.00		10998	9146	8027	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
5	12/29/2021	102300000.00	81949752.52	39344.85	20310902.62	36081.85	0.04	7.01	0.18	842.43		10952	9412	8262	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
6	12/30/2021	102300000.00	81940340.15	40494.81	20319165.04	45767.47	0.04	7.00	0.18	840.71		10929	9686	8504	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
7	12/31/2021	102300000.00	81930654.53	41676.52	20327668.95	55733.75	0.05	6.99	0.18	845.86		10996	9966	8752	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
8	1/1/2022	102300000.00	81920688.25	42890.73	20336421.02	65988.31	0.06	6.98	0.18	834.00		10842	10255	9007	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
9	1/2/2022	102300000.00	81910433.69	44138.24	20345428.08	76538.92	0.07	6.97	0.18	830.86		10801	10551	9269	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
10	1/3/2022	102300000.00	81899883.08	45419.81	20354697.11	87393.52	0.09	6.96	0.18	812.57		10563	10855	9538	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
11	1/4/2022	102300000.00	81889028.48	46736.26	20364235.27	98560.26	0.10	6.95	0.18	806.86		10489	11167	9815	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
12	1/5/2022	102300000.00	81877861.74	48088.38	20374049.88	110047.44	0.11	6.94	0.18	799.57		10394	11487	10099	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
13	1/6/2022	102300000.00	81866374.56	49477.00	20384148.44	121863.55	0.12	6.93	0.18	795.14		10337	11816	10390	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
14	1/7/2022	102300000.00	81854558.45	50902.94	20394538.61	134017.26	0.13	6.91	0.18	791.43		10289	12154	10690	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
15	1/8/2022	102300000.00	81842404.74	52367.04	20405228.23	146517.45	0.14	6.90	0.18	798.14		10376	12500	10997	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
16	1/9/2022	102300000.00	81829904.55	53870.14	20416225.30	159373.14	0.16	6.89	0.18	814.00		10582	12856	11313	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
17	1/10/2022	102300000.00	81817048.86	55413.10	20427538.03	172593.56	0.17	6.88	0.18	846.57		11005	13220	11637	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
18	1/11/2022	102300000.00	81803828.44	56996.78	20439174.79	186188.15	0.18	6.86	0.18	869.86		11308	13595	11969	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
19	1/12/2022	102300000.00	81790233.85	58622.04	20451144.11	200166.50	0.20	6.85	0.18	890.57		11577	13978	12311	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
20	1/13/2022	102300000.00	81776255.50	60289.76	20463454.74	214538.40	0.21	6.83	0.18	915.00		11895	14372	12661	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
21	1/14/2022	102300000.00	81761883.60	62000.81	20476115.59	229313.83	0.22	6.82	0.18	951.86		12374	14775	13020	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
22	1/15/2022	102300000.00	81747108.17	63756.07	20489135.76	244502.97	0.24	6.81	0.18	990.57		12877	15189	13389	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
23	1/16/2022	102300000.00	81731919.03	65556.44	20502524.53	260116.17	0.25	6.79	0.18	1031.29		13407	15613	13767	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
24	1/17/2022	102300000.00	81716305.83	67402.79	20516291.38	276163.98	0.27	6.77	0.18	1071.43		13929	16048	14155	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
25	1/18/2022	102300000.00	81700258.02	69296.01	20530445.97	292657.12	0.29	6.76	0.18	1124.43		14618	16493	14552	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
26	1/19/2022	102300000.00	81683764.88	71236.99	20544998.13	309606.51	0.30	6.74	0.18	1186.00		15418	16949	14960	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
27	1/20/2022	102300000.00	81666815.49	73226.61	20559957.90	327023.25	0.32	6.72	0.18	1242.00		16146	17417	15378	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
28	1/21/2022	102300000.00	81649398.75	75265.76	20575335.49	344918.60	0.34	6.71	0.18	1306.86		16989	17895	15806	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
29	1/22/2022	102300000.00	81631503.40	77355.30	20591141.30	363304.03	0.36	6.69	0.18	1373.71		17858	18385	16245	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
30	1/23/2022	102300000.00	81613117.97	79496.12	20607385.91	382191.17	0.37	6.67	0.18	1431.71		18612	18887	16694	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
31	1/24/2022	102300000.00	81594230.83	81689.07	20624080.10	401591.81	0.39	6.65	0.19	1491.57		19390	19401	17155	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
32	1/25/2022	102300000.00	81574830.19	83935.01	20641234.80	421517.93	0.41	6.63	0.19	1563.86		20330	19926	17626	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
33	1/26/2022	102300000.00	81554904.07	86234.77	20658861.15	441981.65	0.43	6.61	0.19	1639.71		21316	20464	18109	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
34	1/27/2022	102300000.00	81534440.35	88589.19	20676970.46	462995.27	0.45	6.59	0.19	1722.86		22397	21014	18604	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
35	1/28/2022	102300000.00	81513426.73	90999.08	20695574.19	484571.22	0.47	6.57	0.19	1790.57		23277	21576	19110	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
36	1/29/2022	102300000.00	81491850.78	93465.23	20714683.99	506722.10	0.50	6.55	0.19	1854.71		24111	22151	19628	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
37	1/30/2022	102300000.00	81469699.90	95988.41	20734311.69	529460.63	0.52	6.53	0.19	1941.00		25233	22739	20158	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
38	1/31/2022	102300000.00	81446961.37	98569.38	20754469.26	552799.68	0.54	6.50	0.19	2023		26299	23339	20700	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
39	2/1/2022	102300000.00	81423622.32	101208.86	20775168.83	576752.23	0.56	6.48	0.19			0	23953	21254	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
40	2/2/2022	102300000.00	81399669.77	103907.55	20796422.68	601331.39	0.59	6.46	0.19			0	24579	21821	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
41	2/3/2022	102300000.00	81375090.61	106666.12	20818243.27	626550.36	0.61	6.43	0.19			0	25219	22400	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
42	2/4/2022	102300000.00	81349871.64	109485.21	20840643.16	652422.46	0.64	6.41	0.19			0	25872	22992	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
43	2/5/2022	102300000.00	81323999.54	112365.41	20863635.05	678961.07	0.66	6.38	0.19			0	26539	23597	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
44	2/6/2022	102300000.00	81297460.93	115307.28	20887231.78	706179.66	0.69	6.35	0.19			0	27219	24215	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
45	2/7/2022	102300000.00	81270242.34	118311.35	20911446.31	734091.77	0.72	6.33	0.19			0	27912	24845	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
46	2/8/2022	102300000.00	81242330.23	121378.07	20936291.70	762710.97	0.75	6.30	0.19			0	28619	25489	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
47	2/9/2022	102300000.00	81213711.03	124507.88	20961781.09	792050.88	0.77	6.27	0.19			0	29340	26147	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
48	2/10/2022	102300000.00	81184371.12	127701.14	20987927.75	822125.15	0.80	6.24	0.19			0	30074	26817	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
49	2/11/2022	102300000.00	81154296.85	130958.16	21014744.98	852947.40	0.83	6.21	0.19			0	30822	27501	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
50	2/12/2022	102300000.00	81123474.60	134279.20	21042246.20	884531.29	0.86	6.18	0.19			0	31584	28199	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
51	2/13/2022	102300000.00	81091890.71	137664.45	21070444.83	916890.40	0.90	6.15	0.19			0	32359	28910	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
52	2/14/2022	102300000.00	81059531.60	141114.03	21099354.37	950038.29	0.93	6.12	0.19			0	33148	29634	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
53	2/15/2022	102300000.00	81026383.71	144627.98	21128988.31	983988.47	0.96	6.08	0.19			0	33950	30372	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
54	2/16/2022	102300000.00	80992433.53	148206.28	21159360.19	1018754.33	1.00	6.05	0.19			0	34766	31123	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
55	2/17/2022	102300000.00	80957667.67	151848.83	21190483.51	1054349.18	1.03	6.01	0.19			0	35595	31888	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
56	2/18/2022	102300000.00	80922072.82	155555.42	21222371.76	1090786.19	1.07	5.98	0.19			0	36437	32667	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
57	2/19/2022	102300000.00	80885635.81	159325.79	21255038.40	1128078.38	1.10	5.94	0.19			0	37292	33458	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
58	2/20/2022	102300000.00	80848343.62	163159.57	21288496.82	1166238.60	1.14	5.90	0.20			0	38160	34264	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
59	2/21/2022	102300000.00	80810183.40	167056.27	21322760.33	1205279.49	1.18	5.87	0.20			0	39041	35082	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
60	2/22/2022	102300000.00	80771142.51	171015.35	21357842.14	1245213.48	1.22	5.83	0.20			0	39934	35913	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
61	2/23/2022	102300000.00	80731208.52	175036.11	21393755.37	1286052.73	1.26	5.79	0.20			0	40839	36758	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
62	2/24/2022	102300000.00	80690369.27	179117.78	21430512.95	1327809.15	1.30	5.75	0.20			0	41756	37615	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
63	2/25/2022	102300000.00	80648612.85	183259.46	21468127.68	1370494.31	1.34	5.70	0.20			0	42685	38484	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
64	2/26/2022	102300000.00	80605927.69	187460.14	21506612.17	1414119.48	1.38	5.66	0.20			0	43625	39367	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
65	2/27/2022	102300000.00	80562302.52	191718.68	21545978.80	1458695.53	1.43	5.62	0.20			0	44576	40261	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
66	2/28/2022	102300000.00	80517726.47	196033.81	21586239.72	1504232.98	1.47	5.57	0.20			0	45537	41167	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
67	3/1/2022	102300000.00	80472189.02	200404.15	21627406.82	1550741.87	1.52	5.53	0.20			0	46509	42085	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
68	3/2/2022	102300000.00	80425680.13	204828.18	21669491.69	1598231.84	1.56	5.48	0.20			0	47490	43014	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
69	3/3/2022	102300000.00	80378190.16	209304.22	21712505.61	1646711.99	1.61	5.43	0.20			0	48480	43954	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
70	3/4/2022	102300000.00	80329710.01	213830.49	21756459.50	1696190.94	1.66	5.39	0.20			0	49479	44904	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
71	3/5/2022	102300000.00	80280231.06	218405.04	21801363.90	1746676.74	1.71	5.34	0.20			0	50486	45865	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
72	3/6/2022	102300000.00	80229745.26	223025.78	21847228.96	1798176.85	1.76	5.29	0.20			0	51500	46835	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
73	3/7/2022	102300000.00	80178245.15	227690.47	21894064.37	1850698.11	1.81	5.24	0.20			0	52521	47815	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
74	3/8/2022	102300000.00	80125723.89	232396.74	21941879.37	1904246.72	1.86	5.18	0.21			0	53549	48803	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
75	3/9/2022	102300000.00	80072175.28	237142.03	21990682.69	1958828.19	1.91	5.13	0.21			0	54581	49800	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
76	3/10/2022	102300000.00	80017593.81	241923.67	22040482.52	2014447.29	1.97	5.08	0.21			0	55619	50804	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
77	3/11/2022	102300000.00	79961974.71	246738.81	22091286.49	2071108.07	2.02	5.02	0.21			0	56661	51815	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
78	3/12/2022	102300000.00	79905313.93	251584.43	22143101.64	2128813.77	2.08	4.96	0.21			0	57706	52833	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
79	3/13/2022	102300000.00	79847608.23	256457.40	22195934.37	2187566.82	2.14	4.91	0.21			0	58753	53856	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
80	3/14/2022	102300000.00	79788855.18	261354.39	22249790.42	2247368.79	2.20	4.85	0.21			0	59802	54884	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
81	3/15/2022	102300000.00	79729053.21	266271.95	22304674.84	2308220.40	2.26	4.79	0.21			0	60852	55917	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
82	3/16/2022	102300000.00	79668201.60	271206.45	22360591.95	2370121.43	2.32	4.73	0.21			0	61901	56953	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
83	3/17/2022	102300000.00	79606300.57	276154.12	22417545.31	2433070.71	2.38	4.67	0.21			0	62949	57992	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
84	3/18/2022	102300000.00	79543351.29	281111.04	22475537.67	2497066.14	2.44	4.60	0.21			0	63995	59033	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
85	3/19/2022	102300000.00	79479355.86	286073.15	22534570.99	2562104.60	2.50	4.54	0.21			0	65038	60075	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
86	3/20/2022	102300000.00	79414317.40	291036.24	22594646.35	2628181.93	2.57	4.48	0.22			0	66077	61118	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
87	3/21/2022	102300000.00	79348240.07	295995.97	22655763.96	2695292.96	2.63	4.41	0.22			0	67111	62159	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
88	3/22/2022	102300000.00	79281129.04	300947.84	22717923.12	2763431.43	2.70	4.34	0.22			0	68138	63199	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
89	3/23/2022	102300000.00	79212990.57	305887.27	22781122.17	2832589.99	2.77	4.28	0.22			0	69159	64236	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
90	3/24/2022	102300000.00	79143832.01	310809.50	22845358.49	2902760.20	2.84	4.21	0.22			0	70170	65270	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
91	3/25/2022	102300000.00	79073661.80	315709.71	22910628.49	2973932.46	2.91	4.14	0.22			0	71172	66299	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
92	3/26/2022	102300000.00	79002489.54	320582.93	22976927.53	3046096.06	2.98	4.07	0.22			0	72164	67322	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
93	3/27/2022	102300000.00	78930325.94	325424.12	23044249.94	3119239.14	3.05	4.00	0.22			0	73143	68339	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
94	3/28/2022	102300000.00	78857182.86	330228.13	23112589.01	3193348.65	3.12	3.92	0.22			0	74110	69348	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
95	3/29/2022	102300000.00	78783073.35	334989.73	23181936.92	3268410.38	3.19	3.85	0.22			0	75062	70348	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
96	3/30/2022	102300000.00	78708011.62	339703.63	23252284.76	3344408.98	3.27	3.77	0.23			0	75999	71338	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
97	3/31/2022	102300000.00	78632013.02	344364.46	23323622.52	3421327.87	3.34	3.70	0.23			0	76919	72317	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
98	4/1/2022	102300000.00	78555094.13	348966.82	23395939.06	3499149.34	3.42	3.62	0.23			0	77821	73283	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
99	4/2/2022	102300000.00	78477272.66	353505.26	23469222.09	3577854.49	3.50	3.55	0.23			0	78705	74236	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52
100	4/3/2022	102300000.00	78398567.51	357974.30	23543458.19	3657423.26	3.58	3.47	0.23			0	79569	75175	0.32	0.21	1.40	1.52