A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | |
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1 | Group: | High coverage districts | Low coverage districts | Notes | |||||||||||
2 | |||||||||||||||
3 | Cohort size and incentive amounts | ||||||||||||||
4 | Full cohort of those eligible for the program | 1,000 | 1,000 | Arbitrary | |||||||||||
5 | Percent of cohort in each group | 68% | 32% | We calculate the proportion of the birth cohort in Sindh eligible for IRD's mCCT program that resides in districts with high baseline vaccination coverage vs. low baseline coverage. In our cost-effectiveness analysis, the children in high-coverage districts only benefit from ZM, while the children in low-coverage districts benefit from both ZM and IRD's mCCT program. This is because IRD will only be providing incentives in low-coverage districts, but will be implementing ZM in all of Sindh. | |||||||||||
6 | Incentive amount per visit (current USD) | $0.00 | $1.26 | No incentive in high coverage. 200 PKR in low coverage. | |||||||||||
7 | Cohort in each group | 677 | 323 | Calculation | |||||||||||
8 | |||||||||||||||
9 | Vaccine efficacy | ||||||||||||||
10 | Vaccine efficacy for vaccine-preventable disease from meta-analyses | 0.71 | 0.71 | Calculated based on weighted average of RR for each vaccine in schedule and that vaccine's contributions to all vaccine-preventable disease deaths. See "Vaccine efficacy and deaths among unvaccinated" tab for details. | |||||||||||
11 | Adjustment for lower vaccine efficacy in Pakistan (includes "biomarkers adjustment") | 0.94 | 0.94 | We include a smaller adjustment, compared to New Incentives, because we do not have reason for concern about biomarkers and because mCCTs trial includes corroborating biomarkers evidence. | |||||||||||
12 | Adjustment for all-cause mortality effect | 1.18 | 1.18 | Set so that 0.5 deaths from non-vaccine-preventable disease are averted for every death averted from vaccine-preventable disease. (This is similar to what we assume in our CEA for New Incentives.) This is based on evidence that reductions in all-cause mortality from some vaccines are larger than what would be expected based on reductions in deaths due to vaccine-preventable diseases alone. | |||||||||||
13 | Adjustment for coverage in trials | 0.95 | 0.95 | Rough guess. | |||||||||||
14 | Vaccine efficacy for vaccine-preventable disease from meta-analysis, adjusted | 0.83 | 0.83 | Calculation | |||||||||||
15 | |||||||||||||||
16 | Deaths from vaccine-preventable disease | ||||||||||||||
17 | Unadjusted probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases among vaccinated and unvaccinated children in Sindh | 0.6% | 0.6% | Calculated based primarily on IHME GBD data. Takes probability of death for children under 5 from vaccine-preventable diseases, accounting for deaths before vaccination and etiological fraction of certain pathogens. We assume this value from IHME includes both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. See "Probability of death" tab for details. Assume Sindh is in line with Pakistan average. | |||||||||||
18 | Percent vaccinated at time of IHME data in Sindh | 76.7% | 76.7% | Calculated based on coverage of different vaccines (BCG, DTP1, etc.), weighted by their contribution to deaths from vaccine-preventable diseases. We use Sindh-wide estimates because the probability of death data we use are assumed to be the same as Sindh-wide average. See "Vaccine efficacy and deaths among unvaccinated" tab for details. | |||||||||||
19 | Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases for unvaccinated | 1.5% | 1.5% | Calculation (see cell note for explanation of formula) | |||||||||||
20 | Adjustment for higher/lower child mortality in Sindh/targeted area among unvaccinated | 0.90 | 1.20 | Rough guess. We assume the child mortality rate is higher in low-coverage districts, which may have lower overall health beyond vaccine access. For low-coverage districts, we use an adjustment similar to the adjustment we used for child mortality rates in North West Nigeria in our New Incentives CEA. These values are set so that average (weighted by population) is 1 across districts. | |||||||||||
21 | Adjusted probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases for unvaccinated | 1.4% | 1.8% | Calculation | |||||||||||
22 | |||||||||||||||
23 | Effect of program on vaccination rates | ||||||||||||||
24 | Increase in vaccination rates from ZM, excluding mCCTs (percentage points), weighted by vaccines' contributions to deaths | 2.0% | 2.6% | Effect size based on the trial. | |||||||||||
25 | Increase in vaccination rates due to mCCTs (percentage points), weighted by vaccines' contribution to deaths | 0.0% | 8.8% | Effect size estimate comes from (1) effect size observed in trial plus some adjustments for how this would look at scale and (2) effect size we would expect based on New Incentives. We have high uncertainty about this parameter. | |||||||||||
26 | Total increase in vaccination rates due to ZM and mCCTs (percentage points), weighted by vaccines' contribution to deaths | 0.020 | 0.114 | Calculation | |||||||||||
27 | |||||||||||||||
28 | Benefits from child deaths averted | ||||||||||||||
29 | Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease | 100% | 100% | Assumption | |||||||||||
30 | Child deaths averted in cohort | 0.16 | 0.57 | Calculation | |||||||||||
31 | Units of value from child deaths averted in the cohort | 18.6 | 66.3 | Calculation | |||||||||||
32 | |||||||||||||||
33 | Additional benefits | ||||||||||||||
34 | Units of value from deaths averted for individuals older than 5 | 5.86 | 20.86 | See "Deaths at older age groups" tab. | |||||||||||
35 | Units of value from development benefits per counterfactually vaccinated infant | 0.23 | 0.30 | We benchmark development benefits based on New Incentives. See "Development benefits" tab. | |||||||||||
36 | Units of value from development benefits | 3.2 | 11.2 | Calculation | |||||||||||
37 | Units of value from consumption benefits per vaccination paid by mCCTs | 0.00 | 0.02 | We benchmark consumption benefits based on New Incentives. See "Consumption benefits" tab. | |||||||||||
38 | Units of value from consumption benefits | 0.00 | 4.31 | Calculation | |||||||||||
39 | Units of value from additional benefits | 9.0 | 36.4 | Calculation | |||||||||||
40 | |||||||||||||||
41 | Benefits from inclusion/exclusion and downside adjustments | ||||||||||||||
42 | Total adjustment for additional benefits and negative or offsetting impacts | 22% | 22% | This captures additional benefits and negative or offsetting impacts we haven't included in the model elsewhere. We assume similar values as we do for New Incentives. We may revise these with further work. See "Inclusion/exclusion" tab for details. | |||||||||||
43 | Downside adjustments for organizational quality, risk of wastage, quality of monitoring and evaluation, confidence in funds being used for intended purpose | -7% | -7% | We assume similar values as we do for New Incentives. We may revise these with further work. | |||||||||||
44 | |||||||||||||||
45 | Total units of value | 31 | 117 | Calculation | |||||||||||
46 | |||||||||||||||
47 | Costs | ||||||||||||||
48 | Unweighted increase in vaccination rate from ZM and mCCTs | 0.03 | 0.12 | Calculation. We use unweighted for costs, since the cost is the same for each vaccine in the sequence. | |||||||||||
49 | Number of infants counterfactually vaccinated | 23 | 40 | Calculation | |||||||||||
50 | Cost of the program per eligible infant (current USD), mCCTs | $1.25 | $9.50 | We include incentive costs plus other costs to add mCCTs on top of ZM platform and cost of ZM platform itself, based on conversation with IRD. See "Costs" tab. | |||||||||||
51 | Government cost for additional full immunization | $16.29 | $16.29 | See "Costs" tab. | |||||||||||
52 | Gavi cost per additional full immunization | $19.91 | $19.91 | See "Costs" tab. | |||||||||||
53 | Total costs to IRD per cohort | $849 | $3,072 | Calculation | |||||||||||
54 | Total marginal costs to government per cohort (i.e., from additional infants induced to vaccinate) | $371 | $657 | Calculation | |||||||||||
55 | Total marginal costs to Gavi per cohort (i.e., from additional infants induced to vaccinate) | $453 | $803 | Calculation | |||||||||||
56 | Total costs per cohort | $1,673 | $4,532 | Calculation | |||||||||||
57 | |||||||||||||||
58 | Cost effectiveness | ||||||||||||||
59 | Units of value generated per dollar spent, before accounting for leverage/funging | 0.0188 | 0.0258 | Calculation | |||||||||||
60 | Total units of value from GiveDirectly's cash transfer program generated per dollar | 0.00344 | |||||||||||||
61 | Cost effectiveness (in multiples of cash transfers), before leverage/funging, by group | 5.5 | 7.5 | Calculation | |||||||||||
62 | Cost effectiveness (in multiples of cash transfers), before leverage/funging | 6.9 | Calculation | ||||||||||||
63 | Cost effectiveness (in multiples of cash transfers), after accounting for leverage/funging, by group | 6.4 | 8.9 | Calculation | |||||||||||
64 | Cost effectiveness (in multiples of cash transfers), after leverage/funging | 8.3 | Calculation | ||||||||||||
65 | % change in cost-effectiveness due to leverage/funging | 20% | Calculation | ||||||||||||
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67 | Cost per additional child vaccinated (for reference; not used in calculations) | $73 | $112 | Calculation | |||||||||||
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